- Nov 7, 2004
- 5,619
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With post time approaching in a few days, time to break this race down. Forget throwing any horse out of your exotics, but when looking for the winner, there are some KEY trends to look for..
The last time a Derby winner finished 4th or worse in their final prep race was 1957. (Throw out Ank Naked, Big Truck, Cool Coal Man, Denis of Cork, Pyro and Visionaire)
A horse has never won the Derby without at least 1 start at 1 1/8 (everyone qualifies)
Throw out horses with a new Jockey on board ( Monba,Cool Coal Man, Anak Nakal, all qualify)
A total of 38 Fillies have been entered in the Derby over the years with just 3 winning (13.6%) Have to throw out Eight Belles with that percentage....
86% of all Derby winners have had 3 or more starts as a 3 year old ( throw out Monba, Court Vision, Recapture the Glory, Tale Of Ekati,Colonel John, Big Brown
87% of all Derby winners raced their last prep 5 weeks or less prior to the Big race (throw out Adriano,Big Brown, and Smooth Air )
88% of all Derby winners had a Speed Fig of at least 100 in 1 of their last 3 preps (throw out Pyro, Tale of Ekati, Colonel John, Cowboy Cal, Visionair, Big Truck, Dennis of Cork, Smooth Air, Cool Coal Man, Anka Nakal, Eight Belles, Z Humor, Monba, Court Vision, and Adriano)
Considering all of these trends, it leaves just 3 horses.....
Bob Black Jack (pp13)
Gayego (pp19)
Z Fortune (pp6)
considering that speed usually kills in this race, Bob Black Jack would be my last favorite of this group. Gayego and Z Fortune both like to sit just off the pace, but post 19 is a major concern for Gayego. Actually like his speed fig's a bit better. Still have more reserch to do, but if I had to pick a winner today......
Z Fortune.
Note: Horse that came up as repeat's in the above trends, you might want to stay clear of all togeather.
The last time a Derby winner finished 4th or worse in their final prep race was 1957. (Throw out Ank Naked, Big Truck, Cool Coal Man, Denis of Cork, Pyro and Visionaire)
A horse has never won the Derby without at least 1 start at 1 1/8 (everyone qualifies)
Throw out horses with a new Jockey on board ( Monba,Cool Coal Man, Anak Nakal, all qualify)
A total of 38 Fillies have been entered in the Derby over the years with just 3 winning (13.6%) Have to throw out Eight Belles with that percentage....
86% of all Derby winners have had 3 or more starts as a 3 year old ( throw out Monba, Court Vision, Recapture the Glory, Tale Of Ekati,Colonel John, Big Brown
87% of all Derby winners raced their last prep 5 weeks or less prior to the Big race (throw out Adriano,Big Brown, and Smooth Air )
88% of all Derby winners had a Speed Fig of at least 100 in 1 of their last 3 preps (throw out Pyro, Tale of Ekati, Colonel John, Cowboy Cal, Visionair, Big Truck, Dennis of Cork, Smooth Air, Cool Coal Man, Anka Nakal, Eight Belles, Z Humor, Monba, Court Vision, and Adriano)
Considering all of these trends, it leaves just 3 horses.....
Bob Black Jack (pp13)
Gayego (pp19)
Z Fortune (pp6)
considering that speed usually kills in this race, Bob Black Jack would be my last favorite of this group. Gayego and Z Fortune both like to sit just off the pace, but post 19 is a major concern for Gayego. Actually like his speed fig's a bit better. Still have more reserch to do, but if I had to pick a winner today......
Z Fortune.
Note: Horse that came up as repeat's in the above trends, you might want to stay clear of all togeather.
