christmas is almost here :00hour
nobody reads the horses forum so move it there if you must
my take on the run for the roses...
The favorite Bodemeister draws near the rail where ALL of the early speed is outside him forcing him inside. think he gets a rough trip and banged around and shuffled back. Dullahan and Rousing Sermon wont test him much but over in stall 4 is Union Rags and Take Charge Indy in the 3 hole with Borel who will want a clean break and establish position. Also being unraced as a 2 year old hasnt done too hot in the last 100+ years so I have this one with no shot of winning at all.
El Padrino has a nice running style that suits this race and should be able to stalk the early pace. Deep closers have to rely too much on traffic problems and while it certainly can happen and they can hit the board for exotics, I like this years winner to come from mid pack, stalking what should be a hot pace. El Padrino is getting better and better and could be peaking at the right time. This horse has a big one coming up and a hell of a pedigree. Good post outside at 16, which is where Animal Kingdom won it from last year. Love this horse in the exotics and a tasty longshot at 20-1.
Trinniberg has no business being in this race and could very well ruin him trying to go this long. He is the best 3 year old sprinter and hasn't raced over 7 furlongs but they are trying to stretch him out to a mile and 1/4th. I don't think so. The good part of him being in this race is he will challenge Bodemeister if Bode is able to overcome early traffic trouble.
Dullahan...not convinced here but he does have the running style to make it interesting. Romans is looking for his first Derby win and Dullahan seems to be getting better, but this is going to be his 3rd surface in as many races now. He handled the dirt fine in the BC at Churchill but at odds under 10-1 I'd rather take my chances with a longshot like El Padrino.
The undefeated, Gemologist...great post for him, and he has a fantastic pedigree but I have some questions here. This horse has lived on the lead. I don't think he leads all the way around on Saturday, so the question is how does he deal with some dirt in his face? It may be a shocker to have that for the first time in his career, but if he can handle it, he is a contender. Lightly raced though, and hasn't seen much as far as fields and competition go, and he also won't be working over the Churchill track........18 of the last 20 Derby winners have had at least 1 work over the Churchill track.
Hansen....the 2 year old champion. Very game in the Bluegrass stakes and I think he is a good horse but he is going to be tested the whole way around. It is going to take one fantastic effort to make it all the way around and hold off the closers that will be running at him and anyone else up front. His post certainly helps as he is outside the other speed horses so he should make the lead or close to it with relative ease. I like how game this horse is but have question if he can make it for the mile and 1/4th. I think he can hang in late and be a factor in the exotics.
Daddy Nose Best...putting in some marvelous works this week and is an exotics contender IMO at a nice price. Gomez is an excellent jockey and this mount is getting a bit overlooked at 15-1 as he didnt run in any of the MAJOR preps. should be coming late and already has 10 races under his belt, which I like to see. He has seen a lot on the track already and I like giving an edge to a horse with experience.
Creative Cause....my top pick this year. Another horse with experience and in 8 races he hasnt lost by more than a length. In the money in 8 of 8 races. Will GLADLY take 12-1 on this guy and a good post and hope Rosario can guide him around the track. I usually dont like the California horses but this year, Creative Cause looks to me like the best 3 year old coming into this race.
Alpha....fantastic pedigree and he came at Gemologist last race but got repelled. I think he takes a step forward from that race and I actually like him a tad more than Gemologist. Should stalk the pace and be able to make a late push. Pedigree says he should be able to run for days so lets hope he is an early bloomer. 15-1 and I have to imagine he will go off at odds higher than that. Definitely a horse for considering in the exotics.
Take Charge Indy....I actually like this guy but I don't see much value on him. Borels mounts always get bet down just because of his name which is never a good thing. Yes he has a good horse this year but the post position hurts and historically posts 1-3 arent very kind. Great pedigree and Borel does know how to guide horses around the rail so you cant fully count him out but I just do not like it for what you get, especially ad odds of what will likely be single digits. Borel being on board makes him 15-1 because of the name. Without him, I imagine hes 20 or 25-1
Union Rags....Training well and he is maybe the most talented 3 year old. Missing in the Florida Derby isnt too big a concern for me because its certainly a race he needed. The post is not the best but if he gets a good trip, he is one of if not the biggest threat to win. A pace stalker who will benefit from the early speed and should be able to make a big late run. Matz is a great trainer but I think the post could hurt. Especially with a lot going on on either side of him. I think a good chance at a bad trip opens up a lot of possibilities for long shots hitting the board.
Went The Day Well....almost the exact same route to this race as Animal Kingdom last year. Certainly one to consider for exotics but I dont think Graham Motion gets 2 in a row.
Ill Have Another...didnt race over a mile as a 2 year old and is pretty lightly raced. I think he lays a big dud and hopefully people bet on his winning of the Santa Anita Derby.
Daddy Long Legs.....I bet Aiden O'Brien is wishing he didnt even spend the money shipping this one from the UK after getting stuck in the dreaded 1 hole. If this one hits the board it is going to have to be one of the most spectacular rides ever.
nobody reads the horses forum so move it there if you must
my take on the run for the roses...
The favorite Bodemeister draws near the rail where ALL of the early speed is outside him forcing him inside. think he gets a rough trip and banged around and shuffled back. Dullahan and Rousing Sermon wont test him much but over in stall 4 is Union Rags and Take Charge Indy in the 3 hole with Borel who will want a clean break and establish position. Also being unraced as a 2 year old hasnt done too hot in the last 100+ years so I have this one with no shot of winning at all.
El Padrino has a nice running style that suits this race and should be able to stalk the early pace. Deep closers have to rely too much on traffic problems and while it certainly can happen and they can hit the board for exotics, I like this years winner to come from mid pack, stalking what should be a hot pace. El Padrino is getting better and better and could be peaking at the right time. This horse has a big one coming up and a hell of a pedigree. Good post outside at 16, which is where Animal Kingdom won it from last year. Love this horse in the exotics and a tasty longshot at 20-1.
Trinniberg has no business being in this race and could very well ruin him trying to go this long. He is the best 3 year old sprinter and hasn't raced over 7 furlongs but they are trying to stretch him out to a mile and 1/4th. I don't think so. The good part of him being in this race is he will challenge Bodemeister if Bode is able to overcome early traffic trouble.
Dullahan...not convinced here but he does have the running style to make it interesting. Romans is looking for his first Derby win and Dullahan seems to be getting better, but this is going to be his 3rd surface in as many races now. He handled the dirt fine in the BC at Churchill but at odds under 10-1 I'd rather take my chances with a longshot like El Padrino.
The undefeated, Gemologist...great post for him, and he has a fantastic pedigree but I have some questions here. This horse has lived on the lead. I don't think he leads all the way around on Saturday, so the question is how does he deal with some dirt in his face? It may be a shocker to have that for the first time in his career, but if he can handle it, he is a contender. Lightly raced though, and hasn't seen much as far as fields and competition go, and he also won't be working over the Churchill track........18 of the last 20 Derby winners have had at least 1 work over the Churchill track.
Hansen....the 2 year old champion. Very game in the Bluegrass stakes and I think he is a good horse but he is going to be tested the whole way around. It is going to take one fantastic effort to make it all the way around and hold off the closers that will be running at him and anyone else up front. His post certainly helps as he is outside the other speed horses so he should make the lead or close to it with relative ease. I like how game this horse is but have question if he can make it for the mile and 1/4th. I think he can hang in late and be a factor in the exotics.
Daddy Nose Best...putting in some marvelous works this week and is an exotics contender IMO at a nice price. Gomez is an excellent jockey and this mount is getting a bit overlooked at 15-1 as he didnt run in any of the MAJOR preps. should be coming late and already has 10 races under his belt, which I like to see. He has seen a lot on the track already and I like giving an edge to a horse with experience.
Creative Cause....my top pick this year. Another horse with experience and in 8 races he hasnt lost by more than a length. In the money in 8 of 8 races. Will GLADLY take 12-1 on this guy and a good post and hope Rosario can guide him around the track. I usually dont like the California horses but this year, Creative Cause looks to me like the best 3 year old coming into this race.
Alpha....fantastic pedigree and he came at Gemologist last race but got repelled. I think he takes a step forward from that race and I actually like him a tad more than Gemologist. Should stalk the pace and be able to make a late push. Pedigree says he should be able to run for days so lets hope he is an early bloomer. 15-1 and I have to imagine he will go off at odds higher than that. Definitely a horse for considering in the exotics.
Take Charge Indy....I actually like this guy but I don't see much value on him. Borels mounts always get bet down just because of his name which is never a good thing. Yes he has a good horse this year but the post position hurts and historically posts 1-3 arent very kind. Great pedigree and Borel does know how to guide horses around the rail so you cant fully count him out but I just do not like it for what you get, especially ad odds of what will likely be single digits. Borel being on board makes him 15-1 because of the name. Without him, I imagine hes 20 or 25-1
Union Rags....Training well and he is maybe the most talented 3 year old. Missing in the Florida Derby isnt too big a concern for me because its certainly a race he needed. The post is not the best but if he gets a good trip, he is one of if not the biggest threat to win. A pace stalker who will benefit from the early speed and should be able to make a big late run. Matz is a great trainer but I think the post could hurt. Especially with a lot going on on either side of him. I think a good chance at a bad trip opens up a lot of possibilities for long shots hitting the board.
Went The Day Well....almost the exact same route to this race as Animal Kingdom last year. Certainly one to consider for exotics but I dont think Graham Motion gets 2 in a row.
Ill Have Another...didnt race over a mile as a 2 year old and is pretty lightly raced. I think he lays a big dud and hopefully people bet on his winning of the Santa Anita Derby.
Daddy Long Legs.....I bet Aiden O'Brien is wishing he didnt even spend the money shipping this one from the UK after getting stuck in the dreaded 1 hole. If this one hits the board it is going to have to be one of the most spectacular rides ever.
