My NCAA Selection Thread (Final 4)

[ppabart]

Tourney Record: 48-37-1 (+1275) 56.5%
Money Lines: 9-6 60%
(Wins with VCU +160, Richmond +135, Morehead St +420, Gonzaga +100, VCU +205, Butler +305, Butler +180, UNC -190, UConn -145)
(Losses with Mich St -120, Utah St +120, Villanova -120, Georgia +205, UNLV -135, WVU +160)
Sides: 13-15-1 46.4%
Totals: 26-16 61.9%


Base numbers are.... small = 50, no notation or medium = 100, big = 150, very big or large = 200

 

[ppabart]

Took it on the chin yesterday. I suppose one of those type days was overdue. We all have them.

I think the Final 4 presents some opportunities to make some money. Even though the Tarheels are gone, I'm still looking forward to this weekend. In fact, maybe not having them there will be better for my bankroll. Bias is a powerful animal. (MAN, I wish the Heels where there though!!!)

 

[ppabart]

Lines as of Monday at 1pm


Va Commonwealth 133.5 (ML +135)
Butler -2.5 (ML -145)

Kentucky -2 (ML -135)
Connecticut 140 (ML +125)

 

[ppabart]

Lines on Tuesday morning

Va Commonwealth 133.5 (ML +135)
Butler -2.5 (ML -145)

Kentucky -2 (ML -140)
Connecticut 140 (ML +130)

 

[Skipper]

Bart - Where are you getting +135 on VCU? The best I can find is Pinny at +131.

I think the public jumps on Butler because they seem to have played "better defense" than VCU. Fact is, VCU is holding teams to less ppg than Butler.

 

[ppabart]

I think +131 is the best that's on the net right now, Skipper. My guy uses dimelines up to -180 (generally). Once in a while he tweaks stuff. I should probably just post what I can find on the net though....for tracking purposes.

 

[ppabart]

Butler -150 HAMMERTIME
Risking 600 to win 400

I think a lot of things add up to a Butler win here today. They have had enough time to prepare to stop VCU. Just make them shoot contested 3s.....they arent going to hit 12+ three-pointers again. Just won't happen.

Also, any other year, Butler would be the absolute talk of the tournament. But since VCU has done what they've done, it's taken some of the attention off of this Butler team. There's something to be said for a team that has Final Four experience. Butler has it. That's invaluable. Call it a checkmark in the intangibles box.

Shelvin Mack is the best player that's not being talked about in the Final Four. This kid just shows up and makes his team better, every night. Matt Howard is all heart. He's got the will down low to make himself a difference maker.

Now don't get me wrong, I think VCU is a very good team. What they have accomplished is amazing. I just think that now....they are gonna find themselves on the biggest stage and I'm not sure how they'll handle it. If the first few shots don't fall.....how will they react? You know that Butler is going to guard.

This a very big play for me because I see way more scenarios where Butler wins this game than VCU. Butler wins this game 8 times outta 10, I believe. I'm playing Butler on the ML just to take out the close win scenario. I think it's well worth it in this case.

 

[ppabart]

I'm making a smaller play on the 1st half under, as well. I think the first 10 minutes are going to be a real slugfest defensively...as teams feel each other out and people get the nerves in check.

1st half VCU-Butler under 62.5
Risking 110 to win 100

 

[THE KOD]

Butler -150 HAMMERTIME
Risking 600 to win 400

I think a lot of things add up to a Butler win here today. They have had enough time to prepare to stop VCU. Just make them shoot contested 3s.....they arent going to hit 12+ three-pointers again. Just won't happen.

Also, any other year, Butler would be the absolute talk of the tournament. But since VCU has done what they've done, it's taken some of the attention off of this Butler team. There's something to be said for a team that has Final Four experience. Butler has it. That's invaluable. Call it a checkmark in the intangibles box.

Shelvin Mack is the best player that's not being talked about in the Final Four. This kid just shows up and makes his team better, every night. Matt Howard is all heart. He's got the will down low to make himself a difference maker.

Now don't get me wrong, I think VCU is a very good team. What they have accomplished is amazing. I just think that now....they are gonna find themselves on the biggest stage and I'm not sure how they'll handle it. If the first few shots don't fall.....how will they react? You know that Butler is going to guard.

This a very big play for me because I see way more scenarios where Butler wins this game than VCU. Butler wins this game 8 times outta 10, I believe. I'm playing Butler on the ML just to take out the close win scenario. I think it's well worth it in this case.

:00hour

 

[ppabart]

:00hour

I see you like this as well........makes me like it even more now!!!!

:00hour :00hour :00hour

 

[LA Burns]

confused as you list VCU 6% in a separate thread:shrug:

 

[ppabart]

confused as you list VCU 6% in a separate thread:shrug:

Read the thread.....it was a bit of a tongue n cheek comment.....wasn't my play. I list my plays in my own thread

 

[ppabart]

I'm making a smaller play on the 1st half under, as well. I think the first 10 minutes are going to be a real slugfest defensively...as teams feel each other out and people get the nerves in check.

1st half VCU-Butler under 62.5
Risking 110 to win 100

Well it's nice to win a game by a hook...... :00hour

After what I heard Brad Stevens say on the way in to the locker room, I have to believe that over is the right play in the second half

2nd half VCU-Butler over 69.5
165 to win 150

 

[ppabart]

GET THOSE BROOMS OUT BABY!!!!

:toast: :toast: :toast:

 

[ppabart]

1st half Kentucky -1
165-150

Just having one of those days, guys. 3-0 in basketball and 4-0 in baseball so far. I hate Kentucky but I think they'll come out stronger. Not making any game bets.....gonna wait to watch the first half and bet the 2nd half accordingly. Good luck guys!

 

[THUNDER]

nice call

 

[THE KOD]

lets do this whats we gots to do !

 

[Theismann]

Congrats Bart and KOD:0008 I took Ky GL :SIB

 

[ppabart]

Congrats Bart and KOD:0008 I took Ky GL :SIB

GL Theismann....hope ya nail it!!

 

[Theismann]

Bart I think operation abort on Ky bet thinking Uconn 2nd half they look like the better team your thoughts TIA:0008