NAKED IN THE RAIN

[Don Wallace]

Stop backing the logical choice and have the nuts to make a stand with a team that nobody wants...........JUST SAY NO TO OVER PRICED FAVORITES! Give me .............WASH +7 over PHIL..............HOU +10.5 over JAX,..........TB +9.5 over CAR. You know how I know when Im on the right side? When Im betting a huge underdog that appears to have no shot of winning or even competing and I get this sick uneasy feeling in my stomach like Im getting ready to throw my money away.............thats when I know I got the right side. Vegas plays on the publics fear. It takes nuts like grapefruit to stand alone and be a contrarian and back a team thats struggling vs a conference powerhouse and Vegas knows 90% of the public is afraid to do that with any consistency, hence is why the public almost invariably loses. With all the parity in the NFL, this as become an 8-8 league.......what the f**k do I look like laying -14pts to any one team. With the 24 hour sports networks constantly in your face, they begin to skew public perception. The Network analyst just suck everyones D**k on air and talk about how great they are so the networks themselves will have access to them. Heres a prime example, PHI -7 vs WASH. Are you f*****g kidding me. This team has lost 3 straight games and now their a 7pt favorite over a divisional foe. Yeah, McNabb will save the day. He will just take this game over and carry this team on his back.........please. This guy is so overrated. He would struggle with any other team, with the exception on Denver, in the league. Its not about the players, its about the system! Thats why Denver running backs that leave in free agency never post the same numbers they did in Shannahans system. Thats why Kurt Warner hasnt done s**t since he left Mike Martz in St. Louis. They could bench McNabb tomorrow and insert Garcia and this team would perform any different. But Vegas knows you watched that Monday nite game were they anniliated the Cowboys and they know the networks have fooled the public with McNabb and this Philly offense so after losing 3 straight games, they will be plenty mad so lets install this team as a -7pt favor and trap the squares money. Im calling out this entire forum, stop being a p***y, afraid to back the big dog nobody wants to support. Stop laying points in a league where anyone can win on any given day. Until players learn to revel in the fear of standing alone and playing the contrarian they will just continue to lose.

 

[ctownguy]

I agree, but when I took Tenn +9.5 yesterday I took it up the moon1

:shrug: :sadwave:

 

[Emersonboozer]

I dont understand your thinking here. Wouldnt it benefit you" The Contrariun" player if you just sit back and Fade Joe public with your Dogs? The publics perception of these games is your friend. Isnt It?:shrug:

 

[BuffaloBill]

How about Arizona +7 over Dallas, or Cleveland +8 over Atlanta?

Just curious as to how you came up with your selections and left these out?

I think Arizona could win this game, and Cleveland has been hanging tough with everyone they have played.

Thanks.

 

[Don Wallace]

CTOWNGUY, EMERSONBOOZER, you have to research what coaches fair well in the underdog role and in what situations they have done best. Fisher is not a coach that consistently wins in the dog role anymore. However, I had TENN +19 when they lost by 1pt in INDY. As 10pt dogs they did beat WASH this year. JAX is a dangerous team with Garid at QB. There is a reason Leftwich remains on the bench. That was a bad spot for the Titians. I want you to watch the following teams when installed as dogs because they all have coaches who prepare them well......NE, DEN, CAR, DAL, WASH, TB, NO, HOU, to name a few. 3 and 7 are key numbers in the NFL. A 1 or 2pt dog isnt enough to spark my interest. Nor does it get the teams attention. Asfar as public money vs sharp money.........who knows whos money is on any one particular game. Im not fading per say the public aways. I got a database of play on teams that I forumulated at the beginning of the season and I could careless what happens throughout the course of a season............I dont deviate from it. I stay the course. Until you know what your doing and why your doing it people will continue to lose. I could take anyone on this site and explain what I do and how I do it.......and why I do it and turn them into a consistent winner in college and pro football and basketball.............but everyone thinks they know best, they no sports and they got it all figured out. I use to be the same way when I was young. Couldnt tell me s**t, I knew everything. Im 28-19 ATS in college and 22-12 ATS in the NFL thats over 60% with 81 plays..........I must be doing something right. I invite you to follow the plays I make throughout the remainder of the season. Watch how many times Im the only one backing a particular side. When you specialize in dogs you begin to develope a certain mentality thats conducive for spotting upsets. You just cant tail people from one week to the next. You have to understand what your doing and WHY your doing it.

 

[Don Wallace]

BUFFALOBILL, if the concensus line moves to DAL -7 across the board than its a play, but right now its 6.5. I will ARI to my plays when I see that and I comend you for spotting that. DAL is now playing their straight road game coming off that psychologically deflating lose and now their almost a 7pt road favorite vs a team coming off a bye. Thats a joke...........it wouldnt surprise me if the Cards beat them outright..........but I need a 7pt concensus line first. CLE, just wasnt ever in my plans for this season............maybe next year.

 

[ThrowinPicks]

Stop backing the logical choice and have the nuts to make a stand with a team that nobody wants...........JUST SAY NO TO OVER PRICED FAVORITES!

I introduce to you, the buffalo bills +12!

 

[ZMAN]

Don, couldn't agree with you more on your analysis,comments from top to bottom. I'm also a dog player, which makes it all the better. I also look forward to your posts because they're quite entertaining. Calling the forum pussies for not backing unwanted dogs? Gotta love it. Wash. +7 is a strong play for me as well. See ya in the ncaa forum.

 

[pt1gard]

gl don,

only dicey pick IMO is HOU, they beat Jags earlier and they wont come into game looking past them, esp. not with every tilt a playoff stake ... HOU played well enuff to looking ahead Gints yest, and that wont escpae jags either ... Im not saying take the Jags, but i wouldnt be excited taking HOU here with Jags slaughtering last 2 medicore foes at home ...

like Tampa tho, Car is a joke at home

 

[Don Wallace]

THROWNPICKS, I was starting to get an erection reading your post..........the Bills +12, thats LOVE! BUF really isnt in my plans this week or year but they have been getting it together and playing better..........cash it.

 

[ctownguy]

Thx Don for all the info, it is very informative. Like I said previously in another one of your threads, I follow what you have to say very closely and I DO BELIEVE YOU KNOW WHAT YOUR DOING, NEVER DOUBTED THAT, JUST PUT my Tenn play in here to prove what you so eloquently put, not everyone can pick dogs. LOL

BTW congrats on your OSU play against Illinois, you are hot and hope you stay that way.

GL this week.

 

[Don Wallace]

ZMAN, Im 41 years old been sports betting over 20 years and Im kinda old school. I dont bet halfs, props, teasers,parlays none of that monkey s**t. Just dogs! I was taught that only squares bet favorites. Now I know thats not really true but cant think of a better proposition than catching points with a team that has a viable chance of winning outright. And believe me, when MIA +14 clowned CHI yesterday at their house.............you know anyone can win in this league on any given day. Just got to pick your spots. Love WASH +7 over this overrated PHI team. They have lost 3 straight and now their a 7pt favorite......yeah right. If DAL moves to a 7pt fav, playing their 3rd straight road game, Im coming in on ARI.

 

[MadJack]

ZMAN, Im 41 years old been sports betting over 20 years and .

41 and still going to college? just wondering :shrug:

 

[Don Wallace]

PT1, Love HOU in this spot, III call for anther outright upset! This Hou team is very close to getting it. Next year the Texans will be extremely in the 2nd year of coach Ks system. Their starting to look like DEN South. They need to continue to build that defense through the draft and free agency. In coach Ks offensive system, like DEN, you can take average talent and make them look good.

 

[Don Wallace]

JACK, got no clue to what your trying to say? Look, I went 11-2 ATS this week in college and pro, Im holding court now, if you need a winner for this week, just get in line and III set you up.

 

[MadJack]

JACK, got no clue to what your trying to say? .

you said you are 41 years old and i am just wondering why you decided to go back to college at your age, that's all.

 

[Don Wallace]

I never said I went back to college........I know this is a joke, Im just waiting for you to bust my balls........go ahead I can take it.

 

[LonghornMM]

Nice weekend Don. Are you on the MNF dog tonite? What is your opinion on the total?

 

[MadJack]

I never said I went back to college.........

okay, you never said you went "back" to college but.........nevermind, i'll let you slide for now.

 

[Don Wallace]

LONGHORN, think Im just gonna watch this one........If I had to choose a side Id play the Raiders + the points.