NBA BreakDown

JT Sneaks

Sneaks
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The man giveth and the man taketh away...
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Recap and Current Record:
One Unit Selection:
LN: 0-1, -1.10
YTD: 37-31, +9.70

Two Unit Selection:
LN: 0-1, -2.20
YTD:62-41, +41.90

Three Unit Selection:
LN:
YTD:34-31, -.30

Four unit Selection:
LN:
YTD: 10-0, +40.00

Overall:
LN: 0-2, -3.30
YTD:152-104(59%), +91.30

Stuff Coming Up...

JT
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Agger100

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Sneaks, hope u like tonight's card. If u can post by 630 that be great, Tues and Fridays are a bitch for me. Bring the man to his knees tonight. GL.
 

JT Sneaks

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Okay I have a bit of extra time on my hands so will try to post some reasoning and writeups to go along with my selections tonight, and I have several with the first game coming up in a few..

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JT Sneaks

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I'll grab them in order that they are played and will try not to be long winded so I can get them all in...it's so hard I just love this game.
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New York @ Charlotte -4.5 / 185.5

The knicks are slumping badly as they go into this contest tonight against the Hornets. The knicks have dropped four straight and three of those against the number, but playing against the hornets could be just what the doctor ordered. I have three plays in this game, and I will break them both down individually. First Play: Two Unit Selection:Knicks +2.5 f/h
If the knicks have had a bright spot at all this year it was on defense especially in the first half of basketball games where they are allowing opponents to shoot just 42% and giving up an average of 45 points. The hornets on the other hand give up a shooting percentage of 45% at home averaging the enemy to score an average of 49 points. That is a four-point edge throw in the 2.5 Vegas is giving me, and I'll take a shot with the six points.
The next play will also add reasoning to the first half play, and that is Three Unit Selection: New York Knicks +4.5
As mentioned earlier the knicks are not playing well, but they realize how bad they are playing and are taking serious steps to improve and it starts internally and that is exactly what happened after the loss to New Jersey. On the heels of a four-game losing streak, the Knicks and their coaches held a meeting prior to practice, an open forum for theorizing about what ails them. The discussion came just 12 hours after a players-only meeting consumed the locker room following Sunday's 114-96 loss to the Nets.
Yesterday's speakers included Chaney, and, like Sunday, Latrell Sprewell, Mark Jackson and Allan Houston. Either way, Sprewell seemed pleased with the chance to provide input - an opportunity he says Chaney welcomes - and the head coach raved about his players' candor.
"I thought it was very positive," Chaney said. "We had a discussion of where we are, what we have to do, what we're not doing and what we can do to get better.
"I wanted to talk to the players about what I can do better to coach them, and I wanted them to hear from me about what they can do better."
According to Chaney, the crux of the defensive problem actually lies with the offense. The coach has emphasized an up-tempo game so far, one designed to provide quick looks and easy baskets. But the change has shifted the team's focus away from its trademark defense, and the Knicks themselves have been caught not getting back in transition, falling victim to numerous fast breaks.
There are also defensive issues in the paint:
? "Guys are getting layups," Sprewell said. "Knick teams in the past never let guys lay the ball up. With [Charles] Oakley in particular, you knew if you were going to the basket that there was going to be a hard foul."
And out on the perimeter:
? "We've had perimeter guys get 25-plus on us the last couple of nights," Marcus Camby said, referring to Richard Hamilton and Kerry Kittles. "Guys have to do a better job of guarding out on the perimeter."
The Knicks also have a history of rebounding after three or more consecutive losses as they are 11-3 against the number in that scenario, and after two double digit losses the Knicks are 8-1 straight up and against the number. The Knick defense will be put on display tonight as they focal point to put them back on the winning track, as they were embarrassed by the amount of points they have surrendered lately. In fact after a loss in which they allowed at least 110 points they are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the number. Finally the Knicks have covered the last four out of five in this series.

The Hornets have been a mess the entire year when it comes to covering the number as they have a record of just 8-15 against the number, and a dismal 1-8 ats at the hive. This will be the last game for the hornets before they leave on a road trip and when they are in that spot they are just 5-5 straight up, and 3-7 against the number. As mentioned by Nick Douglas, Camby did not play in the first meeting and the Knicks overall provide match up problems for this hornet team, which will have trouble coring against the defensive minded knicks. When the hornets play a team they have beaten in the first meeting they are just 3-8 ats, and when that meeting is at the hive they are 0-4 ats. The home edge is also a weak one here tonight as the hornet fans have been a tough team to back as the move to another city is a guarantee..

The Knicks win this one wire-to-wire in easy fashion.

The final play is obvious at this point: One Unit Selection: New York +170

JT
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Red Raider

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Nice write up JT. Its good to see the reasoning that goes into your picks. Its also very evident why you do so well.

GL tonight


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beavis

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Wow, 6 units on the Knicks. I actually was leaning towards Charlotte (the Knicks have looked horrible lately, and I generally think the Hornets are underrated by the "Man" - I'm sure someone out there knows how they've done ATS) I'm fairly new to this Board, however, and I have done well following JTS' recommendations even when they were against my own instincts!

Any thoughts on the Bucks giving 8.5 against the Grizz? Even on the road, I think the Bucks are 12 points better than the Grizz.
 

JT Sneaks

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Chicago @ Cleveland -9.5/

The cavs along with a few others have been a favorite play of mine this year, however 9.5 seems to be a lot in this spot. The Bulls have covered the last five against the cavs including two outright wins, however I also feel uncomfortable backing a team that is 0-12 on the road so I had to dig a little deeper. I found that both teams perform well against teams with losing records, and that they both are doing surprisingly well against the number this year (okay I already knew that). So with that I am going to pass but if I had to drop some coin on a selection in this spot it would be with the Bulls. That play would almost be entirely based on trends though, which is why I passed. For those who are looking for more the cavs are just 3-7 ats as favorites off of a loss, 3-8 as a home favorite with the total posted lower than 190, and a woeful 5-14 as a home favorite. Hope this is of some help to someone.

JT
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djv

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J T the write up's are great. But for me. I will take the old way. I run out of time. Hey it's my schedule. My problem not yours. I have said all along a ride with you on these picks. So I don't mind you put your picks up and then tell us why. Hey Im sure not complaning and know if my schedule don't fit yours I should do my own capping. Just thought I would say that because some smart ass was going to anyway. Thanks many times over for all your hard work. GL TO All.
 

JT Sneaks

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Thanks djv, no need to worry, I already knew you were a smart ass
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just kidding my friend I will do both..

One Unit Selection:
Detroit/Sacremento Over 197
Pacers +1.5

Two Unit Selection:
Jazz +1.5

Three Unit Selection:
Suns -6

Four Unit Selection:
None

JT
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Guerilla_Ninja

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jt, first off... thanks for all your input. just my two cents as noted in my thread. i do find value in the bulls at +9-. no, the road record doesn't help but, CLE home ATS as a FAV is a key. i think they will take the bulls very lightly and the bulls will hang close here. biggest matchup discrepancy is at PG. outside of that, no crystal clear domination at any position. CLE laying 9- to anyone is puzzling to me. the bulls aren't the bears but... win no, cover - yes.
 
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