NBA FRI 121809 early thoughts - value hunting

[Slicer]

Slice, leaning towards UC Irvine -2 at home against SJSU. Any thoughts ?

I was leaning actually to SJSU on this one, they have size advantage and their Center is more athletic than Irvine's. I think this is a niptuck kinda game that is 50/50 risky. SJSU is schizophrenic on the road, and UC Irvine hasn't played anyone.

SJSU hung tough against UW, St Marys and beat Pacific.

I think the smaller guards of Irvine will have trouble shaking the taller SJ State squad.

All that said, Im probably taking a pass tonight, I have to win the next 2 selections to keep the week long winning streak alive and there is a better selection of games tomorrow. I'm really interested in the TX/UNC line and Duke/Zaga lines tomorrow and will probably make my 2 selections tomorrow.

 

[40seven]

So is this your play?

So is this your play?

was/gs now at 222

wow, for those on the under, buy now??

It seems as if something Sharp is moving this line.

The majority is on the Under and the line goes up.

I could see this game Over 222, GSW shoots better then they have, anybody?

 

[granpa]

Det/OKC U 185

Det/OKC U 185

Is anyone else liking this considerinig Gordon, RIP & Prince are out. OKC hasn't been shooting well the last 3 games either. Just tossing it out there for discussion.

BOL - Granpa :shrug:

 

[eeeerock]

Could have been a little clearer myself,you got it right though,was talking about Golden St under not grindstone's under play.

 

[t20boss]

I was leaning actually to SJSU on this one, they have size advantage and their Center is more athletic than Irvine's. I think this is a niptuck kinda game that is 50/50 risky. SJSU is schizophrenic on the road, and UC Irvine hasn't played anyone.

SJSU hung tough against UW, St Marys and beat Pacific.

I think the smaller guards of Irvine will have trouble shaking the taller SJ State squad.

All that said, Im probably taking a pass tonight, I have to win the next 2 selections to keep the week long winning streak alive and there is a better selection of games tomorrow. I'm really interested in the TX/UNC line and Duke/Zaga lines tomorrow and will probably make my 2 selections tomorrow.

Thx for your take. Agree, there will be better (and more) games to choose from tomorrow. May just play this for action. :0corn

Look forward to your plays manana, Slice. BOL, bud.

 

[eeeerock]

Is anyone else liking this considerinig Gordon, RIP & Prince are out. OKC hasn't been shooting well the last 3 games either. Just tossing it out there for discussion.

BOL - Granpa :shrug:

My opinion is you don't know who is going to be in the lineup for Detroit,should be low scoring but I got enough plays so stayed away from this one all together.OKC hits the road after this one for 3 games and Detroit comes home to face Lakers.

 

[axp59]

Is anyone else liking this considerinig Gordon, RIP & Prince are out. OKC hasn't been shooting well the last 3 games either. Just tossing it out there for discussion.

BOL - Granpa :shrug:

This is a good game to look at. Both teams are fairly consistent statistically speaking. DET deviates about 3 pts and OKC about 4. Taking these deviations into account and both teams' history as samples, this game's score will likely only deviate 3 pt either way for each team.
With that said, let's look at high side scoring within 1 standard deviation. This game is likely to fall under 200. Obviously don't have to know anything about stats to predict that! Hence the 186 number. I'm seeing about 196 as a possible high total. On the low end, I see this dipping below 180 at about 179 or so. Here's how I read this. I'm about 7 pts from my low limit and 10 from my upper limit. Lean very slightly over. What happens if DET plays their hight and OKC thier low? How about vice versa? 188 and 187 respectively. RIGHT AROUND THE NUMBER and very slight lean on the over.

All this underpins what we all already know. Books know their sh*t and set the right number to get even action.

One man's opinion. BOL

 

[axp59]

My opinion is you don't know who is going to be in the lineup for Detroit,should be low scoring but I got enough plays so stayed away from this one all together.OKC hits the road after this one for 3 games and Detroit comes home to face Lakers.

LMAO, I think you said in a few lines what it took me a couple of paragraphs to say. NO PLAY. :mj07:

 

[eeeerock]

LMAO, I think you said in a few lines what it took me a couple of paragraphs to say. NO PLAY. :mj07:

Yours is much more convincing though.

 

[axp59]

Anyone take a peek at IND/MEM as a possible Under play @ 209?

 

[granpa]

Thanks Gents!!

Thanks Gents!!

Thanks to everyone for the Det/OKC insight. I've decided to ride St. Marys/Pacific O 135.5 as my only play tonight.

GL to everyone tonight. :toast:

 

[Joe_Vienna]

was/gs now at 222

wow, for those on the under, buy now??

this is strange :scared

Anyone take a peek at IND/MEM as a possible Under play @ 209?

Locked @ 210:mj06:

 

[BillyBatts]

Anyone take a peek at IND/MEM as a possible Under play @ 209?

I looked at it too. Pacers on the road seem to go under, but in ten Griz games this year, when the total was 206 or higher, the OVER is 7-3. :scared

 

[40seven]

My Lean is to Under

My Lean is to Under

Anyone take a peek at IND/MEM as a possible Under play @ 209?

There is nothing in this play to make me think it will go Over. Neither team has any real strong tendency to either give up or go over 105, this total has been exceeded in 6 of the last 20 combined plays. Finally The ref are an Under bunch


Now the But both of these teams rank towards the bottom in defense and both have explosive offenses and prefer a faster pace.

And finally the Public Leans Under.

After all of this I would Lean Over

 

[axp59]

Thanks for the feedback fellas. I'm going to keep this on back-burner and revisit with a fresh set of eyes in a couple of hours. There's something very attractive here but I need a clean palate. Much appreciated

 

[BillyBatts]

Plays

Plays

Big card for me tonight fellas. :director:

Locked in

Sac-Min Under 210
.Under is 12-3-1 in Timberwolves last 16 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
.Under is 18-7-1 in Timberwolves last 26 home games.

NJ-Toronto Under 204.5
.Under is 17-4 in Nets last 21 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
3 times this year a total has been this high for a Nets game. All 3 went under by an average of 14 points.

Hou-Dallas Under 200
previous 2 meetings between these 2 teams this year.
Total 199 Final Score 130-99
Total 200 Final score 121-103
Game tonight, the total OPENS at 195.5?:shrug:
And now is at 200. Someone alot smarter than me knows something.

Hornets +1 (Trap Game of the Night)
.Nuggets are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5.
.Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
.Hornets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog
.Hornets are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record
And this will be played under the "Friday Night Lights" :00x17


Hope we kill the books tonight fellas :toast:

 

[Ools]

plays of interest:
Ut +6 @ Atl - looks like a big #, but the 1-3 vs +.500 teams on the road scares me a little

NO +1 vs Den - huge revenge of 50 pt playoff lose last year

 

[BillyBatts]

Big card for me tonight fellas. :director:

Locked in

Sac-Min Under 210
.Under is 12-3-1 in Timberwolves last 16 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
.Under is 18-7-1 in Timberwolves last 26 home games.

NJ-Toronto Under 204.5
.Under is 17-4 in Nets last 21 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
3 times this year a total has been this high for a Nets game. All 3 went under by an average of 14 points.

Hou-Dallas Under 200
previous 2 meetings between these 2 teams this year.
Total 199 Final Score 130-99
Total 200 Final score 121-103
Game tonight, the total OPENS at 195.5?:shrug:
And now is at 200. Someone alot smarter than me knows something.

Hornets +1 (Trap Game of the Night)
.Nuggets are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite of 0.5-4.5.
.Nuggets are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
.Hornets are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog
.Hornets are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record
And this will be played under the "Friday Night Lights" :00x17


Hope we kill the books tonight fellas :toast:

FWI--VFR across the street reminds me that Hornets lost last home game Vs Denver by 54 last year in the playoffs. Revenge anyone?:scared

 

[granpa]

I looked at it too. Pacers on the road seem to go under, but in ten Griz games this year, when the total was 206 or higher, the OVER is 7-3. :scared

With Dunleavy back in the line up & Murphy healthy Indy has been putting up points against teams with no defense. Not sure I'd lay anything on this one IMHO. This seems to fall into the same category at Det/OKC,total should fall close to this number.

GL

 

[easterntimezone]

FWI--VFR across the street reminds me that Hornets lost last home game Vs Denver by 54 last year in the playoffs. Revenge anyone?:scared

As much as the milk commercials would have you believe that Chris Paul is a clean-cut square, he's not above pettiness - reference his punching Julius Hodge in the groin when his Wake Forest team played NC State. If anyone remembers the hammering that the Hornets incurred at the hands of Denver, it'll be Paul.

Demon Deacons alum seem to have a public persona that belies their true demeanor; knew someone in the ATL area that had attended high school w/ Duncan in the Virgin Islands and he recalled an episode in which Duncan held someone he strongly disliked under water in a pool for quite some time (as if trying to drown him) during a fit of rage; Duncan, of course, a competitive swimmer in the Virgin Islands before matriculating at Forest.