NBA MON 032309 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[Griffin8s]

LOL Gunny, now there's a system!!!...GL sir.

:mj07: Most people in the tread said the samething but he clamed it worked. Never followed it myself. Guess we find out tonight. :clap:

 

[bostonsbetter]

thanks bro, just drop by and add anything you think will be of some value and we're straight. We have one goal..we ALL cash! welcome...I'm assuming you are a Boston homer like myself!

Like you I am a boston homer and I think we may have shared a few messages on a different site... No names mentioned... Lets just say Ive followed your work and others such as chump and turd... sorry I meant turc, for a while now.

 

[JBrilman]

:bigun: :iagree:

wished you had gotten the extra point but still value here IMHO

as do I...but still TONS of value there


todays card

ATL U195.5 - 1 unit
CHI U209.5 - 1 unit (still like this)
3tm w/ Orl -6 - 1/5 unit

went 3-1 yesterday and sprinkled in a 3 teamer of ORL u, CLE and MIA ML, up 5 units on the day!!!


BOLTA :toast:

 

[joe_shmoe]

Thought I would share a quick analysis that I ran and posted in the old place:

Another total that deserves a closer look Dav/St. Marys 143.

Now you know the public is thinking Patty Mills vs. Curry = run and gun. 90% of the public is on the over and the line has responded by dropping a pt.

IMO, Davidson totals have been inflated all year pub that Curry gets. And this is supported by their 12-18 O/U record. I think that the same is true for St. Mary's but to a lesser extent. And now that Mills is back, people automatically assume that StM is this well oiled offensive machine.

Guess what? This is StM with Patty Mills in the lineup:

Last 10 | Season
vs. Score Line O/U
3/17/09 WAST W 68-57 W -4.5 O 118.5
3/13/09 EWAS W 85-65 L -21.5 O 134.5
3/9/09 @ GONZ L 58-83 L 7.5 U 141.5
3/8/09 POR W 71-61 W -8.5 U 134.5
1/29/09 @ GONZ L 62-69 W 9.5 U 143.5
1/22/09 @ SD W 65-42 W -3.5 U 130
1/17/09 PEP W 96-46 W -26 U 144.5
1/15/09 LOMAR W 78-53 L -30 U 133.5
1/11/09 @ SF W 66-54 W -9 U 146
1/9/09 SCLAR W 63-62 L -13 U 134


8 unders, 2 overs. Granted that the two overs were their last two games.

I think the value is on the under and will wait until right before tip to get in. Hoping for a O/U of 144.5 or 145.

 

[proguy747]

Been sick but tonights card.
atlanta like everyone else under. 196 POD
Boston under 200. Clippers will not get 85.
Magic 5.5 .5 unit play.
Suns 234 or whatever it was. .5 unit play. Suns dictate tempo and nuggets follow their lead.
If early plays win will make Suns full unit.

BOL back to sleep guys.

 

[rms8325]

joe do you have an opinion on st marys -5 for the game

 

[rms8325]

hey ax what is your take on the under in the boston game im seeing alot of people on it. I dont recall seeing anything in this thread about it

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Monday night Ewing, now an assistant coach with Orlando, will be center stage again as the Knicks, thanks to new team president Donnie Walsh, reconnect with their glorious past. The team will honor one player from each of the past six decades during halftime of the game against the Magic.

Carl Braun, Richie Guerin, Willis Reed, Walt Frazier, Bernard King and Ewing were chosen from an anonymous 11-person committee to be the first recipients of the Knicks Legends Awards. Dick McGuire will also be honored with the Knickerbocker Legacy Award. Braun is the only former Knick who will be unable to attend the ceremony.


http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/b...knicks_bringing_out_patrick_ewing_stars_.html

 

[burnetto57]

Burnetto57

Burnetto57

hey ax what is your take on the under in the boston game im seeing alot of people on it. I dont recall seeing anything in this thread about it

HX Joe - will be watching this line.

 

[axp59]

hey ax what is your take on the under in the boston game im seeing alot of people on it. I dont recall seeing anything in this thread about it

It's a homer NOPLAY but my lean was on the over when the numbers came out. I guess a few people were thinking the same thing since there was a sight upward movement. The reason for the no play here is because the C's are once again a different team. With KG back in the line-up, the game flow has changed and is very different from the C's we've been seeing lately. I can't make the call here.

 

[rms8325]

thanks

 

[JCWhy]

Here is my card for today:
Wolves/Hawks U196.5 1U
Wiz/Bulls U210 1U

Leaning toward the Nuggets/Suns U237 but hoping I go 2-0 in the earlier games so I don't touch this one. :scared

 

[axp59]

Another total that deserves a closer look Dav/St. Marys 143.

I think the value is on the under and will wait until right before tip to get in. Hoping for a O/U of 144.5 or 145.

I also like the under here Joe. I anticipate that both teams will shoot closer to the lower end of 40% FG. I've also checked out some trends and I'm liking the under trends with StM dictating at home. Side a bit tight for my taste. Think that -5 is the right number.

GL Joe

 

[t3l27]

still a play for U ATL at 194.5?

 

[cubboy]

hey ax

hey ax

sent you a reply my line is at 194 in the atlanta game you think it is still a play for me at that

 

[granpa]

Atl/Minny U

Atl/Minny U

Just got in from work and this line is now at 194 at my book. I read somewhere 194 was the make or break point for this under. Can I get a little feedback on this? Much appreciated!!

G

 

[axp59]

Guys, 194(.5) is a tough call for me to make. You have to think if this will come down to that 1-2 points. I have been seeing some tight finishes. I'm sorry fellas but it looks like the bare minimum/no value.

 

[granpa]

Guys, 194(.5) is a tough call for me to make. You have to think if this will come down to that 1-2 points. I have been seeing some tight finishes. I'm sorry fellas but it looks like the bare minimum/no value.

Thanks Ax. Think I may wait for 2h on this one.

 

[cubboy]

thanks ax

thanks ax

im with ya granpa gonna wait till half

 

[chrisb02us]

Hey there folks. Just got home from work, and starting to look at todays card from where I left off last night. I owe the wife sometime here tonight, so I'll be in and out throughout the night.

MIN/ATL under (196.5) I locked this puppy up first thing this morning. Minny has given up for the year, and without a big man, they never stood a chance. Atl has been playing some defense at home as of late, and I am hoping this one stays under the number.

Checking out the others now. Where's the consensus currently at?