Ax, if this keeps crazily going up, your under may become more realistic, depending on what number you capped this at...
NBA MON 033009 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter axp59
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Ax, if this keeps crazily going up, your under may become more realistic, depending on what number you capped this at...
That's more than a consideration at this point.
I have this @210 with a 4.5 point variance so even at max 214 I can still get minimum 3 possession @221. Going to wait this one out now.
I think it's actually had a couple of more game. I get 13-0-1 to the over running your query.
O/U: 13-0-1 (17.2) avg total: 217.4
While the average is 217.4, more recent results are even higher than that.
t:team=Warriors and site=home and tP:ats margin<=-10 and tP:season=season and season=2008
O/U: 7-0-1 (17.6) avg total: 218.2
t:team=Warriors and site=home and tP:ats margin<=-10 and tP:season=season and date>=20090101
O/U: 5-0-1 (18.4) avg total: 222.8
So average line is 222.8 and they've been going at 241.2, scoring 124.5 and giving up 116.7
- Mar 18, 2009
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Good morning AX and all cappers. Hey AX glad I played SAC +6 last night and listened to my gut and your advice . Would of made it complete if you had jumped on board but there is plenty of games to come. Hey AX here something along the lines of yesterday.
open Utah -12 current -11
Utah 75%
NYK 25% 1368 bet #
75 % on utah and the line drops :shrug:
Also found this Stat
Favorites after overtime win (games that lasted more than 2.5 hours) are 16-70 ATS if they have less than 2 days of rest since their last game, less than 2 days of rest before their next game.
if that overtime game was at home, they are 3-32 ats in the next game.
Leaning right now NYK + 11 and will keep my eye on this
open Utah -12 current -11
Utah 75%
NYK 25% 1368 bet #
75 % on utah and the line drops :shrug:
Also found this Stat
Favorites after overtime win (games that lasted more than 2.5 hours) are 16-70 ATS if they have less than 2 days of rest since their last game, less than 2 days of rest before their next game.
if that overtime game was at home, they are 3-32 ats in the next game.
Leaning right now NYK + 11 and will keep my eye on this
- Mar 17, 2009
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from your verbiage, and looking at the numbers, it looks as tho you are indicating 217.4 is the avg SCORES or RESULTS from the listed previous games. it is, however, the average TOTAL posted before the games take place. i posted this yesterday. it seems people are confusing the interpretation of the queries n IM just tryin to help. ie, add up all the totals and divide by 15 and you get 217.4. GLTA......
Knicks 5-1 ats. last 6 road games.. w/ covers over CLE, DET and ORL in their own cribs...
btw, Utah with two MASSIVE games coming up on the road @Portland and then @Denver. Thems in the same division fellas
- Mar 21, 2009
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Naw, he means avg total (posted) which he's comparing to total of this game (this stat would be pretty useless if avg total was 191) - and in the last line he says avg line 228, avg score 241...it's all good
Believe me, I'll take all the help I can get
Sorry if the verbiage was misleading, I thought that the last line would clear it up, but I will try to be more explicit going forward.
As you said, the average LINE was 217.4, and the average result wound up 17.2 points higher than that. So, line 217.4 actual scoring 234.6
More recent results, average line 222.8 actual scoring 241.2
I missed your post yesterday, wasn't looking to repeat something that had already been pointed out. Sorry about that.
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- Mar 18, 2009
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- Mar 17, 2009
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no worries at all bro. i wasnt quite sure so i wanted to post that....just dont want anyone makin bad decisions cause sumthin was misinterpreted. thanks!
Naw, he means avg total (posted) which he's comparing to total of this game (this stat would be pretty useless if avg total was 191) - and in the last line he says avg line 228, avg score 241...it's all good
That's more in line with what I've got - avg at about 228, and considering a few GS players out..still should go over...
Line down from 221.5 to 221 now...
Yes I am. There are only a few things why I haven't taken this yet: 1. Utah at home, look at their last games... wow when die they lose the last time? 2. New York with very bad games and low score game... The lost big vs. Sacramento and New Jersey... They've won only 1 game the last 10. 3. If New York scores well they'll cover but will the do this :shrug:
I was trying to get a query to validate some of the angles which PROF from the other side has put up.
I don't know if there is something to indicate the length of a game in the SDQL, but I did run these, and while the results are VERY good, they aren't close to what he came up with.
line<0 and rest<2 and n:rest<2 and p
vertime>0 and p:WSU: 92-67 (2.1)
ATS: 48-107-4 (-3.7) avg line: -5.8
O/U: 84-72-3 (1.3) avg total: 193.5
line<0 and rest<2 and n:rest<2 and p
vertime>0 and p:W and p:site=home SU: 42-32 (1.7)
ATS: 23-50-1 (-3.9) avg line: -5.7
O/U: 41-30-3 (1.2) avg total: 192.9
for my query, specifying that the last game was home or away doesn't seem to matter much, since changing the last site to away
SU: 50-35 (2.4)
ATS: 25-57-3 (-3.5) avg line: -5.9
O/U: 43-42-0 (1.3) avg total: 194.0
I'll still take a 68+% result going back over multiple years ANY time.
And, it has not had a losing season in the years in the database.
2008 5-12
2007 2-12
2006 8-13
2005 8-18
2004 8-20
2003 6-12
2002 11-20
But, as others are pointing out, this is UTA at home, and the NYK. So, reasons to be concerned.
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Fellas...O221.5 was just way to much for my comfort and hard for me to pass on the U. God I'm going to kick myself in the ass for this later but I can live with it. What the hell happened to the easy Mondays?
fade this...my record lately has not been anything to get excited about.
[738] TOTAL u221?-110
(MEMPHIS vrs GOLDEN STATE)
BOL to all you guys on the other side. These games are out of our hands.
fade this...my record lately has not been anything to get excited about.
[738] TOTAL u221?-110
(MEMPHIS vrs GOLDEN STATE)
BOL to all you guys on the other side. These games are out of our hands.
