NBA MON 033009 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[JBrilman]

I was trying to get a query to validate some of the angles which PROF from the other side has put up.

I don't know if there is something to indicate the length of a game in the SDQL, but I did run these, and while the results are VERY good, they aren't close to what he came up with.

line<0 and rest<2 and n:rest<2 and pvertime>0 and p:W
SU: 92-67 (2.1)
ATS: 48-107-4 (-3.7) avg line: -5.8
O/U: 84-72-3 (1.3) avg total: 193.5



line<0 and rest<2 and n:rest<2 and pvertime>0 and p:W and p:site=home
SU: 42-32 (1.7)
ATS: 23-50-1 (-3.9) avg line: -5.7
O/U: 41-30-3 (1.2) avg total: 192.9


for my query, specifying that the last game was home or away doesn't seem to matter much, since changing the last site to away
SU: 50-35 (2.4)
ATS: 25-57-3 (-3.5) avg line: -5.9
O/U: 43-42-0 (1.3) avg total: 194.0


I'll still take a 68+% result going back over multiple years ANY time.

And, it has not had a losing season in the years in the database.
2008 5-12
2007 2-12
2006 8-13
2005 8-18
2004 8-20
2003 6-12
2002 11-20



But, as others are pointing out, this is UTA at home, and the NYK. So, reasons to be concerned.

Can you run some of the queries with the next game as a 10+ point favorite and see what happens to the numbers??

 

[JBrilman]

Fellas...O221.5 was just way to much for my comfort and hard for me to pass on the U. God I'm going to kick myself in the ass for this later but I can live with it. What the hell happened to the easy Mondays?

fade this...my record lately has not been anything to get excited about.

[738] TOTAL u221?-110
(MEMPHIS vrs GOLDEN STATE)

BOL to all you guys on the other side. These games are out of our hands.

I was just getting ready to ask you why we weren't considering a UNDER play here. You were hoping for a buy in number of 199-200 and thinking about it up to 205 so at 221.5 that is 6 possessions over your typical cushion (with 5 3's to get there)

This seems like a POD material now.

Another game I like is Utah, they showed what they can do against a fast paced offense like PHO at home, it took OT to score 203 and 76 of those points we scored in the last period and OT.

Sloan was PISSED after givng up the lead in PHO and losing, and that was shown in the effort against the Suns in Utah. I think they know they have 2 tough games ahead and will want to end this one early with some tough D at home.

UNDER!

 

[jlippens]

Fellas...O221.5 was just way to much for my comfort and hard for me to pass on the U. God I'm going to kick myself in the ass for this later but I can live with it. What the hell happened to the easy Mondays?

fade this...my record lately has not been anything to get excited about.

[738] TOTAL u221?-110
(MEMPHIS vrs GOLDEN STATE)

BOL to all you guys on the other side. These games are out of our hands.

Axp: A unit saved is a unit earned. If you don't like the board because nothing fits our standards, as it seems today, we should not be afraid to take a pass. The worst feeling isn't passing on an unsure play that ended up winning, it's losing on a game you forced action on. Lack of discipline is the quickest away to bleed away a profitable season.

In any case, I know you know all of this. But even the best of us (you, in this case) could use the reminder at times.

 

[JBrilman]

We have a perfect situation for a sys play for MON:

The Warriors are 11-0-1 OU (17.8 ppg) since March 26, 2007 at home when facing a team that covered by double digits against them in their previous same-season meeting.

t:team=Warriors and site=home and tP:ats margin<=-10 and tP:season=season and 20070326<=date

MEM/GS Over

BOLTA

Also I am not seeing where anyone covered by double digits in the last meeting, it was the meeting before. I know its same season but does it matter if its the next meeting?

Just posing the question.

 

[cubboy]

got killed last week..

got killed last week..

hey ax, started my 2 week vacation today .. was hoping to start it with a nice fat payout from my book ..but yesterday took care of that only win yesterday was u191 in cavs game went 1-4 played way to many games ..was breaking a cardinal sin in gambling NO CHASING. leaving in 2 days for cancun. should be great ive never been before. i am running some #s going to try and help out today .have been at it since 6 am central time..lets get some today small card but could be a good day to whip a books azz..whata say.

 

[JBrilman]

MEM/GS

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

# Under is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 games as a road underdog.
# Under is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
# Under is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 road games.
# Under is 7-1 in Grizzlies last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
# Under is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
# Under is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 games as an underdog.
# Under is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 overall.

Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.

 

[barts185]

Can you run some of the queries with the next game as a 10+ point favorite and see what happens to the numbers??

sure, it just drastically cuts down on the number of results, but still good results.

If you don't specify where the previous game was played.

line<-9.5 and rest<2 and n:rest<2 and pvertime>0 and p:W

SU: 16-3 (6.1)
ATS: 4-14-1 (-5.7) avg line: -11.7
O/U: 7-12-0 (-5.4) avg total: 198.2


when the previous game was played on the road

line<-9.5 and rest<2 and n:rest<2 and pvertime>0 and p:W and p:site=away

SU: 12-1 (7.4)
ATS: 3-9-1 (-4.2) avg line: -11.6
O/U: 5-8-0 (-3.0) avg total: 200.0


when the previous game was played at home.

line<-9.5 and rest<2 and n:rest<2 and pvertime>0 and p:W and p:site=home

SU: 4-2 (3.2)
ATS: 1-5-0 (-8.8) avg line: -12.0
O/U: 2-4-0 (-10.6) avg total: 194.1

 

[axp59]

Axp: A unit saved is a unit earned. If you don't like the board because nothing fits our standards, as it seems today, we should not be afraid to take a pass. The worst feeling isn't passing on an unsure play that ended up winning, it's losing on a game you forced action on. Lack of discipline is the quickest away to bleed away a profitable season.

In any case, I know you know all of this. But even the best of us (you, in this case) could use the reminder at times.

Thank you for this jlipp, we can all use this reminder. I struggled with this game when the number came out at 218. I was expecting less, a lot less (my previous post) but when this thing jumped to 221.5. It sent up all the signals for the under play. I've been second guessing my 'routine' lately and I can't ignore it today.

 

[cubboy]

leaning u 212.5 in utah game ,utahs last 9 home games have gone under the posted total

 

[axp59]

hey ax, started my 2 week vacation today .. was hoping to start it with a nice fat payout from my book ..but yesterday took care of that only win yesterday was u191 in cavs game went 1-4 played way to many games ..was breaking a cardinal sin in gambling NO CHASING. leaving in 2 days for cancun. should be great ive never been before. i am running some #s going to try and help out today .have been at it since 6 am central time..lets get some today small card but could be a good day to whip a books azz..whata say.

cub, go enjoy your vacation pal. come back fresh for the playoffs where it will be a lot easier (i hope). I've already put last week behind me, well I'm trying. I'm going with the under on GS, will be my only action today. Lots of others are on the other side :scared

BOL man and enjoy MEXICO

 

[axp59]

MEM/GS

Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

# Under is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 games as a road underdog.
# Under is 4-0 in Grizzlies last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
# Under is 5-0 in Grizzlies last 5 road games.
# Under is 7-1 in Grizzlies last 8 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
# Under is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
# Under is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 games as an underdog.
# Under is 4-1 in Grizzlies last 5 overall.

Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.

there's certainly some support for the under here!

 

[axp59]

leaning u 212.5 in utah game ,utahs last 9 home games have gone under the posted total

That's a good lean IMHO

 

[jebaum]

Just stating the obvious. last 2 ut/NYK games total 207, both went under.NY 8 of last 10 unders.Jazz 7 of last 10 unders and Jazz coming off way under[reg] against the highest scoring most notorious over team since Doug Moe's Nuggets;and at this venue. Coach complains about lack of defensive intensity and yet the total opens 7 higher than last 2 meetings. Seems a little scary
actually Sloan only complained about lack of competitiveness.

 

[jim844]

grindstone:
you took those stats right out of Prof's thread from the other site
atleast give him credit for that
and prof's picks have been pretty decent lately
when the entire world was on phx yest a few followed sac and hit it
prof is recommending nyk tonight based on the stats grindstone pasted
bolta

 

[Supaman33]

Might be off topic at this point, but I like the knicks +11, as they are 7-3 as dd dogs against .500 or better teams ( still learning sdql though), but I am also a knicks fan as hard as it is some times, so that may be clouding my judgement. Just throwing my two cents out there.

 

[cubboy]

ax

ax

thanks ax , will do ,but still will be looking for value plays before i leave . why do you think the line is so high in this gs game with jackson being out ?

 

[Supaman33]

got my stay from across the street but generally knicks play better against the good teams and find a way to lose to the terrible teams.

 

[cubboy]

liking knicks + points myself they are 7-2 last 9 when dd dogs on the rd

 

[cubboy]

will only be playing 2 games tonight ..still looking for best value.

 

[cubboy]

sorry meant to say 7-3 i seen that super