Memphis trends are very favorable for Under, GS are not but there are 2 interesting ones that do.
Head to Head last 5 are 1-4 O/U
and
Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record
i think these are both VERY important trends
NBA MON 033009 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
Memphis trends are very favorable for Under, GS are not but there are 2 interesting ones that do.
Head to Head last 5 are 1-4 O/U
and
Under is 4-1 in Warriors last 5 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record
i think these are both VERY important trends
- Mar 21, 2009
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Guys- I think the real gem today might be the miami over.
One of the best 3 pt shooting teams going against one of the worst defenders of the 3 ball!!??? And its kind of low at 194.
Also think the heat cover.
Even though magic are the better team.
GL ALL.
p.s.-I've always believed that team field goals attempted the game prior per game is an underrated stat (since it's generally a good barometer of an upcoming game's tempo.)
One of the best 3 pt shooting teams going against one of the worst defenders of the 3 ball!!??? And its kind of low at 194.
Also think the heat cover.
Even though magic are the better team.
GL ALL.
p.s.-I've always believed that team field goals attempted the game prior per game is an underrated stat (since it's generally a good barometer of an upcoming game's tempo.)
- Mar 21, 2009
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I don't like unders with teams that have "no reason" to win games and are unlikely to play D. Grizz is a young team and I believe they will want to run with GSW who don't do anything else. Grizz don't really have a defensive, controlling game-plan and are likely to settle into the pace that home team sets.
Add to the fact that neither teams gains something from this game, and there is a bigger chance for this to be a shooting practice from both sides than some locked down strategic match.
Just look at the Raptors, after they've started playing "for fun" (not going to playoffs) they score more and let opps score more pts.
Add to the fact that neither teams gains something from this game, and there is a bigger chance for this to be a shooting practice from both sides than some locked down strategic match.
Just look at the Raptors, after they've started playing "for fun" (not going to playoffs) they score more and let opps score more pts.
- Mar 18, 2009
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RE: this variable we talk so much abt most everyday: "the public is betting 70 % on the # and the # moved in the opposite direction", etc.
Couple things: How do we know any given % of $ 'coming in' is public money and not sharps money - where is this figure comming from? 1 particular sportsbook? where?
Perspective: this is obviously a critical # as the Pacers/CHI game showed the other day - can't imagine the money that moved that line wasn't sharps $ ( and as a side note - nobody ever found out why - when sharps $ moves a line that much, late - IMO it usually means some late info caused it, injury, sched ref. was sick, whatever). I think there is a huge difference between whether the line was moved by public or sharps $. And lastly, think that unless someone has a different objective reason for it; when a line movement does not follow public betting - I would always start w/ the hunch the Sharps are causing it and have it right and then go from there.
Couple things: How do we know any given % of $ 'coming in' is public money and not sharps money - where is this figure comming from? 1 particular sportsbook? where?
Perspective: this is obviously a critical # as the Pacers/CHI game showed the other day - can't imagine the money that moved that line wasn't sharps $ ( and as a side note - nobody ever found out why - when sharps $ moves a line that much, late - IMO it usually means some late info caused it, injury, sched ref. was sick, whatever). I think there is a huge difference between whether the line was moved by public or sharps $. And lastly, think that unless someone has a different objective reason for it; when a line movement does not follow public betting - I would always start w/ the hunch the Sharps are causing it and have it right and then go from there.
My plays tonight:
Miami/Orlando over
New Jersey/Milwaukee over
GS/Memphis over
Utah/New York under
Good luck @ all
Miami/Orlando over
New Jersey/Milwaukee over
GS/Memphis over
Utah/New York under
Good luck @ all
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Golden State Warriors: They had only eight active players Saturday and might again tonight against Memphis as Corey Maggette (head contusion) is questionable and center Andris Biedrins (left ankle) is doubtful. Golden State still is getting 5.5 points against road-weary Memphis.
whats up ax..........maybe this could help today
whats up ax..........maybe this could help today
couldnt say I fell in love with anything today...Golden State and Utah were the best unders I saw and NY +11 was the best side IMO
I threw 20 on a 5 team parlay (to help my fix)
ORL -2.5
NJ -3.5
UTH U212.5
NY +11
GS U221
who knows maybe today will be the day i go 5-0
BOLTA
I threw 20 on a 5 team parlay (to help my fix)
ORL -2.5
NJ -3.5
UTH U212.5
NY +11
GS U221
who knows maybe today will be the day i go 5-0
BOLTA
Game of the day: Magic at Heat
By STEVE MERRIL - I'm successful because I stay one step ahead of the books March 30, 2009 2 comments
Orlando Magic (-3, 194) at Miami Heat ? 7:35 pm ET
Playoff Positioning
The Magic have clinched the Southeast division title and a top three seed in the upcoming playoffs. But Orlando is still battling with the Boston Celtics for the overall No. 2 seed and home court advantage in a probable second round matchup. Orlando is currently a half-game behind the Celtics, but Orlando does have three more games remaining than Boston as the Magic have 10 regular season games still on the schedule, while Boston has just seven games left.
Miami is currently fifth in the Eastern Conference and 1? games ahead of Philadelphia. The Heat still have a chance at home court in the first round, but must catch Atlanta as the Hawks currently stand 3? games ahead with eight games remaining, while Miami has nine regular season games left on the schedule.
Home Court Advantage
The Heat have exhibited an extreme home-road dichotomy as they currently stand 26-11 SU (straight up) at home, compared to just 13-23 SU on the road. The strong home record has not translated into pointspread success as the Heat are only 18-19 ATS (against the spread) in those 37 home games.
Miami?s average margin of victory at home this season is just +4.3 points per game, but the Heat might receive an extra boost of energy tonight with a pregame ceremony to retire Alonzo Mourning?s No. 33 jersey.
Pointspread Machine
Orlando has been a pointspread mint the past two seasons under head coach Stan Van Gundy. The Magic stand 102-60 (63 percent) ATS in all games for a net profit of +36 units. The Magic are 71-46 ATS as a favorite and 31-14 ATS as an underdog and have been most profitable on the road with a fantastic 54-28 ATS record away from home.
Recent Meetings
Orlando is currently dominating this in-state rivalry with a 6-1 SU record during the past two seasons. The home team is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in all three meetings this season. Orlando won the first matchup 86-76 on Jan. 2 as an 8?-point home favorite, but then lost the rematch at Miami 103-97 on Jan. 24 as a 7?-point road favorite. Orlando got its revenge on Feb. 22 with an easy 122-99 home win as a 9-point favorite.
Dwyane Wade
The one constant in all three meetings this year has been the greatness of Miami?s Wade, who has averaged nearly 37 points per game including a 50-point performance in the most recent meeting. In fact, it was the first time in the past 14 years that a player scored 50+ points while his team lost by 20+ points.
Wade has scored at least 32 points or more in seven of his last nine games versus the Magic.
?My concern is when Dwyane goes into the Hall of Fame and they start putting off his top career games, it?s going to be like 50 versus Orlando? we?re going to fill up the entire screen?, said Van Gundy. ?So, I don?t know what to tell you. When I coached Dwyane I really liked him, but I'm not so sure anymore. Our relationship is strained.
By STEVE MERRIL - I'm successful because I stay one step ahead of the books March 30, 2009 2 comments
Orlando Magic (-3, 194) at Miami Heat ? 7:35 pm ET
Playoff Positioning
The Magic have clinched the Southeast division title and a top three seed in the upcoming playoffs. But Orlando is still battling with the Boston Celtics for the overall No. 2 seed and home court advantage in a probable second round matchup. Orlando is currently a half-game behind the Celtics, but Orlando does have three more games remaining than Boston as the Magic have 10 regular season games still on the schedule, while Boston has just seven games left.
Miami is currently fifth in the Eastern Conference and 1? games ahead of Philadelphia. The Heat still have a chance at home court in the first round, but must catch Atlanta as the Hawks currently stand 3? games ahead with eight games remaining, while Miami has nine regular season games left on the schedule.
Home Court Advantage
The Heat have exhibited an extreme home-road dichotomy as they currently stand 26-11 SU (straight up) at home, compared to just 13-23 SU on the road. The strong home record has not translated into pointspread success as the Heat are only 18-19 ATS (against the spread) in those 37 home games.
Miami?s average margin of victory at home this season is just +4.3 points per game, but the Heat might receive an extra boost of energy tonight with a pregame ceremony to retire Alonzo Mourning?s No. 33 jersey.
Pointspread Machine
Orlando has been a pointspread mint the past two seasons under head coach Stan Van Gundy. The Magic stand 102-60 (63 percent) ATS in all games for a net profit of +36 units. The Magic are 71-46 ATS as a favorite and 31-14 ATS as an underdog and have been most profitable on the road with a fantastic 54-28 ATS record away from home.
Recent Meetings
Orlando is currently dominating this in-state rivalry with a 6-1 SU record during the past two seasons. The home team is a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS in all three meetings this season. Orlando won the first matchup 86-76 on Jan. 2 as an 8?-point home favorite, but then lost the rematch at Miami 103-97 on Jan. 24 as a 7?-point road favorite. Orlando got its revenge on Feb. 22 with an easy 122-99 home win as a 9-point favorite.
Dwyane Wade
The one constant in all three meetings this year has been the greatness of Miami?s Wade, who has averaged nearly 37 points per game including a 50-point performance in the most recent meeting. In fact, it was the first time in the past 14 years that a player scored 50+ points while his team lost by 20+ points.
Wade has scored at least 32 points or more in seven of his last nine games versus the Magic.
?My concern is when Dwyane goes into the Hall of Fame and they start putting off his top career games, it?s going to be like 50 versus Orlando? we?re going to fill up the entire screen?, said Van Gundy. ?So, I don?t know what to tell you. When I coached Dwyane I really liked him, but I'm not so sure anymore. Our relationship is strained.
- Mar 18, 2009
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Couldn't agree more - great time to have fun and pad those stats.........
REALLY like this card actually............looking at all of these too.............man - too many plays. Don't understand the line movement with ORL and NJ though................couple that with the fact that home teams have been on a 14-0 HOME TEAM winning streak with a 13-1ATS HOME streak as well............there must be a swing the other way coming. :shrug:
- Mar 22, 2009
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any thoughts on the MIL vs NJ line 200
over , under ??? :shrug:
i like that card aswell i like ORL over too
good luck bro
over , under ??? :shrug:
i like that card aswell i like ORL over too
good luck bro
This is exactly how I feel. I really did not think there was any way that it would come out above 210. So now I'm on the under of a game that when I went to bed thought it would be an over or no play. :scared
man, exactly...I posted that last night thinking I'm on this over locked and loaded once the number comes out.
it's like an IPO, "oh man, i'm in this big for $20/share." The market opens and the big money already got to it first and it's $50 to you. Sell short. Sure enough, end of the day it's $35/share and you just made yourself some cash.
not saying this is the case here but when we set buy-in numbers before publication, are we ever off 10-15 points? When you leave your driveway to fill up Monday morning and expect $1.85/gallon, you can understand if it's $1.93. Can you understand when it's $2.10?
please ignore the rant. LOL
I've had enough of looking at tonight's card. Going shopping for tomorrow's sale. BOL
Prof is boxed...WBA is boxed...what's going on? That's the problem with running a forum and also selling picks. There's a conflict of interest. Touts won't make any money if people are getting better picks for free.
I haven't seen Prof lose and one can make a living off WBA's thread. Something smells funny.
I haven't seen Prof lose and one can make a living off WBA's thread. Something smells funny.
- Mar 22, 2009
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Just when I decided it was better for me to handicap capper's then trying to cap games! But you are right, looks like the "independents" are getting squeezed out. Is there any two way communication between members of the site, and the management? or is it a one way street. Ask them what they are doing with some ofthe best cappers, and guys that support the online community, and why they are getting the boot. I think Teddy Covers goes on Hardcore Sports on Sirius Radio. Should call into the show to ask him WTF.
Prof
Prof
From across the street:
favorites after overtime win (games that lasted more than 2.5 hours) are 16-70 ATS if they have less than 2 days of rest since their last game, less than 2 days of rest before their next game.
if that overtime game was at home, they are 3-32 ats in the next game.
my play is:New York +11
I know the guy has been on some kind of streak...so it's hard to deny the guy...but who keeps this kind of information handy? Who would even know to come up with some kind of system? Has anyone had a chance to confirm this information?
Prof
From across the street:
favorites after overtime win (games that lasted more than 2.5 hours) are 16-70 ATS if they have less than 2 days of rest since their last game, less than 2 days of rest before their next game.
if that overtime game was at home, they are 3-32 ats in the next game.
my play is:New York +11
I know the guy has been on some kind of streak...so it's hard to deny the guy...but who keeps this kind of information handy? Who would even know to come up with some kind of system? Has anyone had a chance to confirm this information?
