we've got a perfect spot to play ML parlay with only 2 games on the board. @ the current numbers, we're looking at about -137/-138 juice which is a value considering the situation.
BOL
BOL
NBA MON 042009 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
- Mar 14, 2009
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thanks
playoff stats after home loss and next game at home...(not only after game 1)
60% SU winners 44-27 last 5 years (chances of b2b home losses 40%)
69% SU winners 22-12 last 3 years (chances of b2b home losses 31%)
78% SU winners 7-2 last year. (chances of b2b home losses 22%)
I think there's some value in these numbers
Gm2 after Gm1 Home Loss 14-3 82% last 5 years
2008 1-1
April 20 1 Philadelphia 76ers 90, Detroit Pistons 86
April 23 2 Philadelphia 76ers 88, Detroit Pistons 105
April 19 1 Utah Jazz 93, Houston Rockets 82
April 21 2 Utah Jazz 90, Houston Rockets 84
2007 4-0
April 21 1 New Jersey Nets 96, Toronto Raptors 91
April 24 2 New Jersey Nets 83, Toronto Raptors 89
April 22 1 Golden State Warriors 97, Dallas Mavericks 85
April 25 2 Golden State Warriors 99, Dallas Mavericks 112
April 22 1 Denver Nuggets 95, San Antonio Spurs 89
April 25 2 Denver Nuggets 88, San Antonio Spurs 97
May 6 1 San Antonio Spurs 111, Phoenix Suns 106
May 8 2 San Antonio Spurs 81, Phoenix Suns 101
2006 4-0
1 April 23 Indiana 90 New Jersey 88
2 April 25 Indiana 75 New Jersey 90
1 May 8 New Jersey 100 Miami 88
2 May 10 New Jersey 89 Miami 111
1 May 23 Miami 91 Detroit 86
2 May 25 Miami 88 Detroit 92
1 May 24 Phoenix 121 Dallas 118
2 May 26 Phoenix 95 Dallas 105
2005 2-2
Game 1 Houston 98, Dallas 86
Game 2 Houston 113, Dallas 111
Game 1 Denver 93, San Antonio 87
Game 2 Denver 76, San Antonio 104
Game 1 San Antonio 121, Phoenix 114
Game 2 San Antonio 111, Phoenix 108
Game 1 Detroit 90, Miami 81
Game 2 Detroit 86, Miami 92
2004 3-0
Game 1 Sacramento 104, Minnesota 98
Game 2 Sacramento 89, Minnesota 94
Game 1 Los Angeles 97, Minnesota 88
Game 2 Los Angeles 71, Minnesota 89
Game 1 Detroit 87, Los Angeles 75
Game 2 Detroit 91, Los Angeles 99
2008 1-1
April 20 1 Philadelphia 76ers 90, Detroit Pistons 86
April 23 2 Philadelphia 76ers 88, Detroit Pistons 105
April 19 1 Utah Jazz 93, Houston Rockets 82
April 21 2 Utah Jazz 90, Houston Rockets 84
2007 4-0
April 21 1 New Jersey Nets 96, Toronto Raptors 91
April 24 2 New Jersey Nets 83, Toronto Raptors 89
April 22 1 Golden State Warriors 97, Dallas Mavericks 85
April 25 2 Golden State Warriors 99, Dallas Mavericks 112
April 22 1 Denver Nuggets 95, San Antonio Spurs 89
April 25 2 Denver Nuggets 88, San Antonio Spurs 97
May 6 1 San Antonio Spurs 111, Phoenix Suns 106
May 8 2 San Antonio Spurs 81, Phoenix Suns 101
2006 4-0
1 April 23 Indiana 90 New Jersey 88
2 April 25 Indiana 75 New Jersey 90
1 May 8 New Jersey 100 Miami 88
2 May 10 New Jersey 89 Miami 111
1 May 23 Miami 91 Detroit 86
2 May 25 Miami 88 Detroit 92
1 May 24 Phoenix 121 Dallas 118
2 May 26 Phoenix 95 Dallas 105
2005 2-2
Game 1 Houston 98, Dallas 86
Game 2 Houston 113, Dallas 111
Game 1 Denver 93, San Antonio 87
Game 2 Denver 76, San Antonio 104
Game 1 San Antonio 121, Phoenix 114
Game 2 San Antonio 111, Phoenix 108
Game 1 Detroit 90, Miami 81
Game 2 Detroit 86, Miami 92
2004 3-0
Game 1 Sacramento 104, Minnesota 98
Game 2 Sacramento 89, Minnesota 94
Game 1 Los Angeles 97, Minnesota 88
Game 2 Los Angeles 71, Minnesota 89
Game 1 Detroit 87, Los Angeles 75
Game 2 Detroit 91, Los Angeles 99
looks good, but you're gonna tie them together on the moneyline? where do you lie on the spreads? thanks for all you do axpiota!
i also noticed the exception last year was played on one day's rest - like both the games monday night! i'm playin the devil's advocate here - i also like the two favs. i'm not so sure i wanna lay that much chalk though.
I'm going to parlay the 2 ML. The ML juice is too much on BOS alone. Maybe the SAS ML is affordable on its own but still high for my taste. The spread is too tight for me to call on either game. I still like the CHI/BOS game to go over the total but the trends in this situation calls for an under play. The total for the DAL/SAS gm is also sending mixed signals. Maybe it should be a day off but 82% laying -137 is not a bad play.
- Mar 18, 2009
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laker game went as expected a blowout/ last minute backdoor cover, denver even more impressive, wtf happened to orlando i'm always happy to see the team lose outright if they can't cover for me, but an 18 point lead???
Ax, the only thing i would warn on the sat/dfw game is that all the teams in the west 2-8 are almost even.any of these teams could have been #2 or #8. So to think that the spurs are better team than they showed on saturday might not be realistic. they looked old out of sink defense is not there anymore.Dallas is a hot team with alot of confidence. i'm probably wrong , but i think the game goes the same way. spurs with adjustments , but dallas the quicker and more balanced team. This barea kid is a real difference maker . dampier looks as good as he ever has. howard, terry. Dallas might even sweep them..I still believe that the spurs have to control and slow down the pace to have a chance which could lead to a possible under play , but either way i think dallas is gonna be there.
Remember last year the world played every game with boston giving points to atlanta.Every game boston was favored by 10ish and we thought every time that this was gonna be the blowout. it never came . this is chicago's championship nothing to lose. The c's cannot win on their name alone nor can they win with just rondo and perkins.
seems like the sharps or casinos are wanting us to take dallas as it is 60%-40% public ,with the point spread going from 5.5 up to 6..
i like dallas+6
leaning on chicago ,with an open eye for any suggestions might just stay away ...
Ax, the only thing i would warn on the sat/dfw game is that all the teams in the west 2-8 are almost even.any of these teams could have been #2 or #8. So to think that the spurs are better team than they showed on saturday might not be realistic. they looked old out of sink defense is not there anymore.Dallas is a hot team with alot of confidence. i'm probably wrong , but i think the game goes the same way. spurs with adjustments , but dallas the quicker and more balanced team. This barea kid is a real difference maker . dampier looks as good as he ever has. howard, terry. Dallas might even sweep them..I still believe that the spurs have to control and slow down the pace to have a chance which could lead to a possible under play , but either way i think dallas is gonna be there.
Remember last year the world played every game with boston giving points to atlanta.Every game boston was favored by 10ish and we thought every time that this was gonna be the blowout. it never came . this is chicago's championship nothing to lose. The c's cannot win on their name alone nor can they win with just rondo and perkins.
seems like the sharps or casinos are wanting us to take dallas as it is 60%-40% public ,with the point spread going from 5.5 up to 6..
i like dallas+6
leaning on chicago ,with an open eye for any suggestions might just stay away ...
- Mar 18, 2009
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Overall momentum ultimately may favor both the Bulls and Mavericks, but the Celtics and Spurs will have an air of desperation in trying to equalize the series, having surrendered home court advantage. Heading into the opposition's arena at 1-1 will lend a modicum of optimism whereas at 0-2, it's mentally and emotionally disheartening.
Are the Celtics sub par w/o Garnett as minister of defense? Yes. Do the Spurs look like the oldest club in the league and offensively challenged w/o the improvisational ability of Ginobili and a healthy Duncan? Yes. But both are veteran-laden squads who know that tonight is now the critical game in the series.
Are the Celtics sub par w/o Garnett as minister of defense? Yes. Do the Spurs look like the oldest club in the league and offensively challenged w/o the improvisational ability of Ginobili and a healthy Duncan? Yes. But both are veteran-laden squads who know that tonight is now the critical game in the series.
Accuscore Playoff Record:
Sides 4-4
Totals 4-4
Boston by 10.1 and 192.5
Spurs by 2.0 and 185.6
Personally like Both Unders here in this spot and will play them both.
Tough loss to swallow on the Magic the other night, up 18 going into the 4th, but the ole NBA got me again
:moon:
Sides 4-4
Totals 4-4
Boston by 10.1 and 192.5
Spurs by 2.0 and 185.6
Personally like Both Unders here in this spot and will play them both.
Tough loss to swallow on the Magic the other night, up 18 going into the 4th, but the ole NBA got me again
:moon:
Just a quick note and question.
8 games played, Vegas is under the impression defense will tighten up and the games have trended to the under but as we seen O/U 7-1 over the weekend. Do "they" bump the opening lines up and give us a better chance at the under? Now that the teams are playing for the second time and adjusted their defense better to match their opponent could we see more unders in the 2nd games? Just throwing it out there for some feed back. GL to all!!
:topic: Anyone know a good book for Nascar stuff. Looking for matchups and to picks winners for the race but I need something easy to use as well. Checked a few listed here on MJ and so far I think the WSEX site looks the best. Ax, thanks for the email back just going to dig into it this week to see if it's something I should do or not. Thank you for any help in advance.
8 games played, Vegas is under the impression defense will tighten up and the games have trended to the under but as we seen O/U 7-1 over the weekend. Do "they" bump the opening lines up and give us a better chance at the under? Now that the teams are playing for the second time and adjusted their defense better to match their opponent could we see more unders in the 2nd games? Just throwing it out there for some feed back. GL to all!!
:topic: Anyone know a good book for Nascar stuff. Looking for matchups and to picks winners for the race but I need something easy to use as well. Checked a few listed here on MJ and so far I think the WSEX site looks the best. Ax, thanks for the email back just going to dig into it this week to see if it's something I should do or not. Thank you for any help in advance.
Have no clue about Nascar...
Ax... as usual great call on yesterday's game..
Ended up taking 2nd Denver and the over...
Thinking about ML here as well... doing some more research
Ax... as usual great call on yesterday's game..
Ended up taking 2nd Denver and the over...
Thinking about ML here as well... doing some more research
- Jul 17, 2008
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Just a quick note and question.
8 games played, Vegas is under the impression defense will tighten up and the games have trended to the under but as we seen O/U 7-1 over the weekend. Do "they" bump the opening lines up and give us a better chance at the under? Now that the teams are playing for the second time and adjusted their defense better to match their opponent could we see more unders in the 2nd games? Just throwing it out there for some feed back. GL to all!!
:topic: Anyone know a good book for Nascar stuff. Looking for matchups and to picks winners for the race but I need something easy to use as well. Checked a few listed here on MJ and so far I think the WSEX site looks the best. Ax, thanks for the email back just going to dig into it this week to see if it's something I should do or not. Thank you for any help in advance.
ABC Islands is a great book for nascar
I think game 2s are more likely to go under since coaches will make defensive adjustments(looking at you portland) and vegas should give better values after almost every game going over.
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So any ideas on the Mavs Spurs Under?
If you cap the Spurs win you have to believe it goes Under and if you
Cap the Spurs to Cover the Under is an easy cover.
Anybody?
47
So any ideas on the Mavs Spurs Under?
If you cap the Spurs win you have to believe it goes Under and if you
Cap the Spurs to Cover the Under is an easy cover.
Anybody?
Ax or anyone tell me again why we don't like the under in the Bulls/C's game. Only reason went over on Sat. was O.T. . I understand only 14 pts were scored in the O.T. but man as I said earlier with tighter defense I can see the C's really needing this win and the only way for them to do it is D. Anyone give me a reason not to and I may think about it. I don't see the line going down so I will wait closer to game time it "L" in. GL everyone!!!:00hour
