NBA MON 050409 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)
- Thread starter axp59
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Damn Orl. line already went from +3 to +2 here in Vegas while I was gloating about it and I missed it!!!
FWIW Luke. When capping my games in the pick 'em to 3 range, It makes no difference to me since we're talking about one possession. If you play ORL and win, they will likely win SU or if they lose, the points aren't going to matter much. Pull yourself away from the last series and enter this one with a clear mind. I know the last game they played had a 2 margin but I doubt this comes into play this game. BOL
You are sooooo on the money, and with ring rust it's just compounded, and lets face it Manny has the speed of Floyd and the power of Forman, and your wife made a powerfull subtle observation, Forman always said he was such a better fighter second time around as the anger, anxiety and fear was gone, it was just another day at work. Think about how you go to work in the morning. If you can go in calm and relaxed, you don't have that adrenalin dump that causes so many problems later on in a fight.
Again remember I'm a hunt and peck typer so posting takes me a long time!!!
LOL, I know you're a one finger typist Luke and thanks for taking the time, I do appreciate it. You are absolutely right about work.
I get up in the morning and if I had a bad card the previous day (hopefully not often), I am apprehensive about making the bets. When I've been hot, It's easier for me to cap and bet games. That's why I always try to get my action in early, the stress of having a few losses earlier in the day can really screw up your later plays. Think about how many people lose money on Sunday night football; chasing losses or hungry for action. If the game was as NO PLAY SUN morning, unless something HUGE changes, it remains a NO PLAY SUN night. great point Luke.
Damn, Missed your second Question. Again on the surface Forrest takes this fight. Andersons just not faced the right fighters, a good wrestler esaly beats him, Henderson should have, but he's been very inconsistent for many reasons I won't go into. Anderson was a disaster in Japan in Pride and Forest trains with Randy so he only get better and not many can put out a great game plan better than Randy.
Nice Luke. Thank you. I look forward to your writeup on this fight. Hoping for some value on Forest.
Exactlly!!! I've followed some great team sport cappers and am amazed when I see them chase, and it's so obvious and I scratch my head and think is this person really who I thought they are. How they maintain good records is beyond me, but I know to stay away from those plays unless they give a good reason for playing them................
Ax,
Manny was very impressive the other night and came through for us!! As we expected...I watch alot of UFC fights and I believe that Forrest creates a real tough match up for Silva. Forrest will bang with Silva and has a great chin, I do believe Forrest will try to take him down and put him on his back and make him uncomfortable. I think we will get good value on this fight...Silva with his record breaking 9 straight fights people will be on him. Although his past two fights were not impressive at all. He is going up from middle-weight to light-heeavyweight to fight Forrest which may also be a disadvantage to Silva because Forrest is a big 205'er. Forrest matches up well.
Manny was very impressive the other night and came through for us!! As we expected...I watch alot of UFC fights and I believe that Forrest creates a real tough match up for Silva. Forrest will bang with Silva and has a great chin, I do believe Forrest will try to take him down and put him on his back and make him uncomfortable. I think we will get good value on this fight...Silva with his record breaking 9 straight fights people will be on him. Although his past two fights were not impressive at all. He is going up from middle-weight to light-heeavyweight to fight Forrest which may also be a disadvantage to Silva because Forrest is a big 205'er. Forrest matches up well.
Every word of this post is on the money! The best part is I didn't have to type it!!!
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- Mar 18, 2009
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Thank you very much. I've been thinking about this but I'm have no idea how to cap pugilists enough to make it part of my arsenal. I appreciate the valuable insight.
Ax,
I have been betting MMA for a bit now and it has been very profitable for me. If you watch it enough and do your homework you can be successful with your wagers.
I appreciate what you do for all of us, your insight is extremely helpful. So I don't mind doing what I can to contribute with some insight on MMA fights if you are interested. Luke seems he knows his stuff too...Sorry to be off topic guys. Back to the NBA, I am with ya on the Lakers and Bos over. Hope we continue the playoff success.
GL fellas!
My thoughts exactly...
That is my I'm on the ML...If they lose this game surely it will be by more than 2 or 3 points.
Key word in that sentence was IF...Celtics have to be mentally drained and have not had a single practice geared towards this series. Orlando is rested and knows this is the perfect game to steal.
Thanks for the kind words Ax. Been back on for a while. Had a nice run last Sat -Thurs just haven't been on the forum much.
What has you sold on this over? Is it Orlando breaking 100? I just see the Celtics laying an egg and scoring no more than 80.
I will parlay LAKERS ML with whatever my plays are today for some more value. They will cover easily (mark my words) but as a HOMER I will only bet ML.
Looking at
2 Team
LAL ML
ORL ML
LAL ML
ORL TOTAL (not sold on the over yet, i was leaning under might be a no play)
- Mar 18, 2009
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Teemo has been smoking hot and he is on Celts ML (10units) and Lakers -8.5 (5 units)
My book puts the ML at -125, so will probably lay my 1.5 pts as I like the Celts here --- I'll equate it to the Manny fight the other night, Ax loved that Manny got tougher sparring partners, well Boston just went quite a few rounds with a tough team while Orlando danced through vs a soft Philly team; even while Orl had studs out. I'll take the battle tested veteran crew to win at home vs the inexperience, "not ready for prime time" Magic. I think that Bulls battle may catch up to them as the series moves on, but I think they should be ready tonight.
My book puts the ML at -125, so will probably lay my 1.5 pts as I like the Celts here --- I'll equate it to the Manny fight the other night, Ax loved that Manny got tougher sparring partners, well Boston just went quite a few rounds with a tough team while Orlando danced through vs a soft Philly team; even while Orl had studs out. I'll take the battle tested veteran crew to win at home vs the inexperience, "not ready for prime time" Magic. I think that Bulls battle may catch up to them as the series moves on, but I think they should be ready tonight.
I know this is bucking the trend. I'm thinking BOS takes this game outside and we already know ORL likes the outside game. This is a bet you make if you are comfortable with the play otherwise, gotta sit this one out. BOL
Reading and listening to all of people talking about Orlando going to have to play like they did in the last game against Philly and I feel the same way. They have to do it to have a chance to win this game and the ones after it. I think they learned something from that game without Howard in it. (So did I since I took Philly that game:banghead: ) Also, who is guarding Howard?:shrug: Howard needs to dominate in this series to get his team to the next round. So if they can push the ball more in this first games against a "tired" Celtics defense I can see them getting to atleast 100 pts then C's are going to try and keep up here and get themselves into the 90's.
Many like Ax (numbers guys) may not like my reasoning but :shrug: what can I do. Many people make a play for different reasons. Hell sometimes it might just be the name of the horse. (General Quarters:s5: ):mj07:
