NBA question??

[shamrock]

NBA question??

I'm wondering if anyone knows at what percentage the NBA spread comes into play in percentage of winners?

In other words, its widely known in NFL games if you pick straight up winners, regardless of point spreads you will cash winners at a rate well above the juice.

I am a baseball junkie & play several games each day during the season, generally I do fairly well. To a large extent I attribute my success in bases do to the simple fact that I enjoy watching & staying on top of things that frankly it is enjoyment & Entertainment. Any monetary gain is just gravy.

I used to feel the same way about the NBA, however the last several years I have now come not to feel the same way about Stearns NBA. I doubt anyone can argue the League simply doesn't possess the excitement of the '80s. In any event, unless your goal is losing money, to be successful playing any sport you better be watching reading & studying your League. JT, Rander, dNugget & all the other talented baskets players on this site obviously do their homework & offer incredible insight which is a bonus of course for a casual player who simply doesn't have the time or desire to watch & study the NBA with that necessary enthusiasm.

I've been playing a system lately were I strictly only play money lines, and only was certain situations. I have been very impressed with the results. It is only really possible due to offshore books because I guarantee your local won't give you a ml on Sacramento over Cleveland tonight. Some teams are extremely good at home & some teams struggle immensely on the road, this is certainly nothing new. But for me it has been a way for me to casually play the NBA & make a few Bucks. Actually I've been astonished with the results. Many nights there are no plays, which is fine for me. Forcing plays in this system without a doubt loses money. To me it seems if your patient picking your plays you can make money, which is why I'm not sure why the books offer these money lines. Examples would be last night Utah over Denver. & Sacramento over Cleveland tonight. Probably Minnesota over Clippers.

In any case I'm wondering if anyone has played this way long term & still observes the type of winners I'm seen over the past couple months.
Thanks in advance

shamrock

 

[MadJack]

nick douglas plays the ML a lot. hopefully he'll see this and respond.

 

[Nick Douglas]

I play almost exclusively moneylines in the NBA but I play underdogs rather than favorites.

In a sense I understand what you are doing because when I bet a team I want their incentive to be the same as my incentive in the game. NBA teams want to win, not cover spreads, so I like to make a play in a situation where I am getting plus money and I feel the team is in a good spot to win the game. As of late it has been hurting me with several underdogs winning ATS but losing the game. Over time it has benefited me to play the moneylines on these underdogs.

I started playing moneylines because last season several months in someone tracked moneylines vs. spreads and found that 0-3 point underdogs would win outright 91% of the time they covered and 3.5 to 6.5 underdogs would win 78% of the time they covered. Like I said, those results were only for about half a season. Another interesting aspect was that 10+ underdogs had ZERO outright victories on the year, so it certainly supports what Shamrock is saying.

The caveat is that I personally remember several games this year already in which a 10 point or greater underdog has won the game outright. I believe most of these games involved the Grizzlies, actually. Those of you that want to do some legwork can certainly check out the game logs at www.nss.net.