NBA SAT 032809 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter axp59
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- Mar 18, 2009
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PNP -
Personally pretty useless concerning internationals - from initial impressions, that's how I'd go as well. But the caveat remains: useless concerning internationals. That, of course, doesn't discount being useless a whole lot capping hoops and EPL also :142smilie
- Mar 18, 2009
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:nono: You're not giving yourself enough credit there, bro! Your analysis is some of the best I've seen.
So by taking IND +8, you're not too worried about the potential absence of Troy Murphy then? I never thought I'd see the day where he would be a critical factor in deciding on whether or not to bet on a game, but he's been a consistent, crucial cog for the Pacers all season. Personally, I'm leaning the other way for this afternoon affair. Bulls have been brilliant at home, 9-1 SU & ATS in their last 10, with the sole loss against a Lakers team that's clearly "in the zone". Their SU & ATS margins during this 10 game streak are both DD as well. BOL on your play, bro.
Thanks for the support fellas. You'd think someone just kicked my dog.
Locked in NY under...damn line already moved a whole point.
New York at Charlotte U206
Opened 207
Locked in NY under...damn line already moved a whole point.
New York at Charlotte U206
Opened 207
- Mar 21, 2009
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So thats great than. Bulls are due for an ats loss and maybe even a SU one as well. :box2:
- Mar 18, 2009
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Definitely do think that Murphy's absence hurts the Pacers, but Granger back and so is Foster, who does a lot of the dirty work inside. It was Murphy who picked up the perimeter threat duties in Granger's absence and although Granger doesn't possess Murphy's rebounding prowess, can hurt opponents w/ more lateral quicks.
Murphy has done really well this year; far more svelte than he's ever been and worked on that 3 pointer - he does wear down a lot though by the end of a game.
You're familiar w/ the disruptive presence of TJ Ford - suspect that some of what was working against the Pacers was Ford's Me-J personality - scoring a ton isn't beneficial to the offensive load of a team if you're the anointed point. W/o that dark cloud hanging over his head, Jack can run the team as he sees fit - and his primary concern is the team's welfare unlike Me-J's straight 3 possessions-3 straight jumpers that led to the confrontation w/ Jack, who felt that Ford was strictly looking out for his own.
Wouldn't be surprised if the Bulls won going away handily. Also wouldn't be too shocked if the Pacers kept it in the range of +8/+8.5 either.
Best of luck regardless of which side you play if you do so.
- Mar 18, 2009
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See, I can't be bothered to lend my sympathies to Ax (hope you don't mind me bustin' your chops here) 'cause I KNOW full well that in the long run, Ax = $$$ to the nth degree...
- Mar 18, 2009
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Problem w/ that rationale (and I'm not dissing you here at all) is that nothing's ever DUE when it comes to figuring out what's may happen.
I know, I know...I'm up 30 some units for the season and i'm getting down about this crappy week. :violin: Thanks man, you guys are all great. I know you guys know how i feel though! :mj1:
- Mar 18, 2009
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That Kipling quote Ax - just that I KNOW (and not patronizing you) that it's not a permanent fall off the precipice for you - it's as everyone's mentioned, a rough patch and the 'eye' just needs a little readjustment and polish to hone its sharpness once more.
- Mar 18, 2009
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It's funny because I actually miss TJ. Kapono is crap without him, and our new semi run-and-gun system would work a lot better with someone speedy and knows how to push the pace! Our previous lack of a perimeter threat was somewhat mitagted by TJ's ability to penetrate whereas Jose is not interested in beating his man off the dribble or taking advantage of a fast break opportunity. But I agree with your assessment of the game, it's either Bulls by 15 or 5 - it's all about guessing the "right" side.
2 plays, ax? I sure hope you're not chasing!
:tongue BOL though, hope you bounce back! It's funny because I actually miss TJ. Kapono is crap without him, and our new semi run-and-gun system would work a lot better with someone speedy and knows how to push the pace! Our previous lack of a perimeter threat was somewhat mitagted by TJ's ability to penetrate whereas Jose is not interested in beating his man off the dribble or taking advantage of a fast break opportunity. But I agree with your assessment of the game, it's either Bulls by 15 or 5 - it's all about guessing the "right" side.
2 plays, ax? I sure hope you're not chasing!
Kapono blew his chance last year when would infuriatingly take a single step inside the arch EVERY SINGLE TIME HE WAS THROWN THE BALL. This absolutely kills the little value Kapono has of being on the floor. He's a slow as dirt defender who gets exposed on nearly every possession. His sole worth is if he is consistently jacking threes-- which we all know he can do with astonishing success. It's been better this year--someone obviously talked to him, and he only takes that step half the time.
The guy needs one of those electronic dog collars to politely remind him of where he is and isn't welcome. Straight up.
PS. I love Kapono on a personal level--absolutely one of the most hilarious people (athletes or not) on the planet. Every interview I see him in people end up in stitches.
- Mar 21, 2009
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Bulls are 35-38, why would such team get to be -8 fav ? Wade has nothing to do with tonights game, I don't care what Bulls did or didn't to him. What I care about is Pacers inability to score lately (except one game vs flat Bobcats), not scoring good away, missing some key players, playing at home-strong Bulls that are klickling lately and are chasing playoffs. More energy, homecrowd...taking Pacers here is just hoping that Bulls have bad night...gotta look through it more, off to work...BOL :mj06:
Bulls have been favored by 7 or more 7 times this season.
team=Bulls and season=2008 and line<-6.5
SU: 6-1 (5.7)
ATS: 2-5-0 (-2.4) avg line: -8.1
O/U: 2-5-0 (-6.3) avg total: 208.0
when home
SU: 5-1 (6.3)
ATS: 2-4-0 (-1.9) avg line: -8.2
O/U: 2-4-0 (-5.9) avg total: 207.9
Pacers have been dogs of 7 or more 19 times this season.
team=Pacers and season=2008 and line>6.5
SU: 4-15 (-7.8)
ATS: 13-6-0 (1.8) avg line: 9.6
O/U: 12-7-0 (6.2) avg total: 206.8
when away,
SU: 3-14 (-8.5)
ATS: 11-6-0 (1.3) avg line: 9.8
O/U: 10-7-0 (3.4) avg total: 206.8
But, as others have pointed out, CHI is in the playoff race, tied for 7th/8th with DET (I know, technically CHI is in 7th), 3 back of PHI and 2.5 ahead of CHA. While not mathematically eliminated, IND is already making their plans for what to do during the playoffs - and it involves watching, rather than playing.
team=Bulls and season=2008 and line<-6.5
SU: 6-1 (5.7)
ATS: 2-5-0 (-2.4) avg line: -8.1
O/U: 2-5-0 (-6.3) avg total: 208.0
when home
SU: 5-1 (6.3)
ATS: 2-4-0 (-1.9) avg line: -8.2
O/U: 2-4-0 (-5.9) avg total: 207.9
Pacers have been dogs of 7 or more 19 times this season.
team=Pacers and season=2008 and line>6.5
SU: 4-15 (-7.8)
ATS: 13-6-0 (1.8) avg line: 9.6
O/U: 12-7-0 (6.2) avg total: 206.8
when away,
SU: 3-14 (-8.5)
ATS: 11-6-0 (1.3) avg line: 9.8
O/U: 10-7-0 (3.4) avg total: 206.8
But, as others have pointed out, CHI is in the playoff race, tied for 7th/8th with DET (I know, technically CHI is in 7th), 3 back of PHI and 2.5 ahead of CHA. While not mathematically eliminated, IND is already making their plans for what to do during the playoffs - and it involves watching, rather than playing.
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It is saturday Morning so hopefully the idiots are not posting.
At the old place we had a thread of focused Under achievers. Not sides not Over but Unders and when you have a few bad days you need to refocus your mission.
Help me guys because Ax will not say this focus on the Unders. Do not ask about your Aunt Jamima bowling match or even the side on the Pacers lets be UNDER Achievers and make money.
I went 0-4 in the NBA last noight because i thought about it too much...
Lastly lets Win it back!
At the old place we had a thread of focused Under achievers. Not sides not Over but Unders and when you have a few bad days you need to refocus your mission.
Help me guys because Ax will not say this focus on the Unders. Do not ask about your Aunt Jamima bowling match or even the side on the Pacers lets be UNDER Achievers and make money.
I went 0-4 in the NBA last noight because i thought about it too much...
Lastly lets Win it back!
