NBA SAT 032809 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

chrisb02us

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Nova/Pitt over 142

Nova/Pitt over 142

One of my key capping strategies is based on previous meetings. For this game, though, I am using the previous matchups to highlight a line that was created by linesmakers to get the public to pound the over in this game. Check out the last 3 times Nova and Pitt met up.

That should be under, not over, sorry guys.
 
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40seven

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Now I love the fact that you started with the Portlad Under. The Grizz played late last night and will not be ready for Roy and Co, I see yhis at 183-187. This could be a two unit play for me, if i have a great day and since it is a late start.

Also, Da Bulls are focused and ready and Indy is not...Small play on the Under for me.
 

chrisb02us

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Nova/Pitt over 142

Nova/Pitt over 142

I am still getting used to this site, and the editing feature. I tried to edit my write up, but deleted most of it. Here we go.

One of my key capping strategies is based on previous meetings. For this game, though, I am using the previous matchups to highlight a line that was created by linesmakers to get the public to pound the under in this game. Check out the last 3 times Nova and Pitt met up.

1/28/09 Nova 67 Pitt 57 total set at 136
1/30/08 Pitt 69 Nova 57 total set at 143
1/6/08 Nova 64 Pitt 63 total set at 143

The unders came screaming in on all 3 of these games by an average of 15 points a game. You would think that they would set this line somewhere in the low 130's, but they go back to 142 total number. History tells us to pound the under here, however, Nova has just been lighting up these last 3 games by avering 78.6 points, while Pitt has been averaging 72 points/games over their last 3. Based on averages, we're looking at a total of 150, but you can't rely solely on the averages. Lets look at the pace. I really believe that Nova will be setting the pace early in this one, as they will want to continue their momentum and come out firing from behind the arc. Pitt, who hasn't really set a pace in any of their games in this tourny, will respond by running and gunning w/ Nova to keep it close. I am rolling with the over here, and I think linesmakers set this total high for a reason, and I for one will not get sucked in with the under. My prediction; 76-73, too tough to call the winner, but hey, it's a total, so it doesn't matter much, lets just get that winning ticket shall we.

Still looking at the other game and Char/NYK game
 

bleedingpurple

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Where it is real F ing COLD
Problem w/ that rationale (and I'm not dissing you here at all) is that nothing's ever DUE when it comes to figuring out what's may happen.


I and many of gamblers have lost countless green by using this overdue rationale.. A consistent winner needs to throw "overdue" out of one's vocabulary.. An importantstep to making cash. At the same time, I will probably pass on this game because the Bull's games fuck me all the time.:s6: :s6:
 

chrisb02us

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I am still getting used to this site, and the editing feature. I tried to edit my write up, but deleted most of it. Here we go.

One of my key capping strategies is based on previous meetings. For this game, though, I am using the previous matchups to highlight a line that was created by linesmakers to get the public to pound the under in this game. Check out the last 3 times Nova and Pitt met up.

1/28/09 Nova 67 Pitt 57 total set at 136
1/30/08 Pitt 69 Nova 57 total set at 143
1/6/08 Nova 64 Pitt 63 total set at 143

The unders came screaming in on all 3 of these games by an average of 15 points a game. You would think that they would set this line somewhere in the low 130's, but they go back to 142 total number. History tells us to pound the under here, however, Nova has just been lighting up these last 3 games by avering 78.6 points, while Pitt has been averaging 72 points/games over their last 3. Based on averages, we're looking at a total of 150, but you can't rely solely on the averages. Lets look at the pace. I really believe that Nova will be setting the pace early in this one, as they will want to continue their momentum and come out firing from behind the arc. Pitt, who hasn't really set a pace in any of their games in this tourny, will respond by running and gunning w/ Nova to keep it close. I am rolling with the over here, and I think linesmakers set this total high for a reason, and I for one will not get sucked in with the under. My prediction; 76-73, too tough to call the winner, but hey, it's a total, so it doesn't matter much, lets just get that winning ticket shall we.

Still looking at the other game and Char/NYK game
I haven't locked this one in yet, as I see the number is drtopping, now down to 141, looks like public is pushing it lower. I am going to wait a bit, and see if I can get it at 140, but I still like it at 142.
 

thanhdang60

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Don't ask who I am ? CHI/IND under 209 .NOW 209' it will going 210 at game time
BOL
Adding:
MEM/PORT under 193 .NOW 193' .194 at game time
NY/CHAR over 206 .NOW 206 .205' at game time
I will don't post if Ax win.
BOL
 
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omega

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morning ax
Likes the NY games under(CAP at 200)
BUT
LIKES ind UNDER(CAP AT 204)
 

Crockie

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My leans today:

Chicago - Indiana under 209.5
New York - Charlotte under 207
Memphis - Portland under 194
LAC - Houston over 190.5

Logged in already the New York - Charlotte under. Like this because:

- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Charlotte's last 8 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 6 games on the road
 

thanhdang60

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Now we lock in:
CHI/IND under 211 at SPbet,Skybk or 210.5 at Betus
Remember: 210 AT GAME TIME
 
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jim844

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So far i have locked in:
ind +8
utah -8.5

considering playing the mem/por under, nyk/char under
and por fg -12.5

waiting on the lines for 1q so i can prob play:
hou 1q, por 1q
playing against sub par teams these 2 teams also come out strong in the 1q
gonna narrow it down to maybe 3 solid choices
bolta
 

JBrilman

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My leans today:

Chicago - Indiana under 209.5
New York - Charlotte under 207
Memphis - Portland under 194
LAC - Houston over 190.5

Logged in already the New York - Charlotte under. Like this because:

- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Charlotte's last 8 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 6 games on the road

If I am not mistaken the total has only gone over 200 1 time all year in Charlotte. I saw this number last night and never gave it another thought.

Its locked in for me as well at 206.
 

JBrilman

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Todays card so far

Cha/Ny U206
Por/Mem U193.5

LEANS
1) considering WASHINGTON on the MONEY LINE. Pistons are terrible right now and Washington at home with Agent 0 starting for the first time all year could give them a nice emotional boost for this game. Any thoughts?

2) Indiana +8.5 anyone heard if Murphy is in?
 

Slicer

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Todays card so far

Cha/Ny U206
Por/Mem U193.5

LEANS
1) considering WASHINGTON on the MONEY LINE. Pistons are terrible right now and Washington at home with Agent 0 starting for the first time all year could give them a nice emotional boost for this game. Any thoughts?

2) Indiana +8.5 anyone heard if Murphy is in?

Actually leaning the other way, Pistons may have Wallace and Hamilton back today as well, they've dumped 3 straight and have the Bobcats nipping at their heels. I think Detroit gets it done today in washington.
 

ChumpChange

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Mar 23, 2009
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Todays card so far

Cha/Ny U206
Por/Mem U193.5

LEANS
1) considering WASHINGTON on the MONEY LINE. Pistons are terrible right now and Washington at home with Agent 0 starting for the first time all year could give them a nice emotional boost for this game. Any thoughts?

2) Indiana +8.5 anyone heard if Murphy is in?

scoresandodds.com reports that Murphy is out !!!
 
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