Nova/Pitt over 142
Nova/Pitt over 142
I am still getting used to this site, and the editing feature. I tried to edit my write up, but deleted most of it. Here we go.
One of my key capping strategies is based on previous meetings. For this game, though, I am using the previous matchups to highlight a line that was created by linesmakers to get the public to pound the under in this game. Check out the last 3 times Nova and Pitt met up.
1/28/09 Nova 67 Pitt 57 total set at 136
1/30/08 Pitt 69 Nova 57 total set at 143
1/6/08 Nova 64 Pitt 63 total set at 143
The unders came screaming in on all 3 of these games by an average of 15 points a game. You would think that they would set this line somewhere in the low 130's, but they go back to 142 total number. History tells us to pound the under here, however, Nova has just been lighting up these last 3 games by avering 78.6 points, while Pitt has been averaging 72 points/games over their last 3. Based on averages, we're looking at a total of 150, but you can't rely solely on the averages. Lets look at the pace. I really believe that Nova will be setting the pace early in this one, as they will want to continue their momentum and come out firing from behind the arc. Pitt, who hasn't really set a pace in any of their games in this tourny, will respond by running and gunning w/ Nova to keep it close. I am rolling with the over here, and I think linesmakers set this total high for a reason, and I for one will not get sucked in with the under. My prediction; 76-73, too tough to call the winner, but hey, it's a total, so it doesn't matter much, lets just get that winning ticket shall we.
Still looking at the other game and Char/NYK game
