NBA SAT 041809 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[JBrilman]

This KG thing has the whole town very depressed. LAL is looking more and more like the team to beat but I'm not ready to count anyone out yet. It's going to depend on who comes out of the East. Be careful betting against NOH. I know it looks like this matchup has DEN written all over it but I'm not entirely sold yet. BOL pal. I'll go more in depth hopefully on SUN's thread.

Actually something I was going to chime in about.

NO has not been healthy AT ALL this entire year. Peja, Posey, Chandler have all played limited games and are WELL rested and now all of them are probably at 80% or better. They looked real good against SA at home last game with a tough loss.


This team can run with Denver and can play the half court game BETTER IMO...They split the season series each winning on the road.

This one could go 7

 

[uwmattyk13]

Ax it's good to see you back. Hurry up have come over to baseball already. Im +18 units and its only been 2 weeks.

That being said I really like Portland -4, but with KG out I like that Celtics Over even more, I'm thinking 210 is reached pretty easily in this game.

 

[grindstone]

Hey AX what's up brother one hell of a hockey game last night. Nice to see you back posting again. Can't wait for your start in baseball and thanks again for all your help. As for the posted games I like right now Port- 4 and Dall +4.5, no feeling yet for the O/U on the C's game. This has to be a big loss for Bost but don't count them out yet. As for a sleeper pick AX I will say be careful with ORLANDO, they could come out of the East.

Here are the latest public #


Bost open 198 current 196.5
Chi
72% over Bet # 3851
28% under



Dall 38% open Dall -4 current Dall -4 SA 62% Bet # 2631



Hou 26% open Port - 5 Current Port - 4
Port 74% Bet # 3285

Interesting Portland opens - 5 drops 1 point and the public is still all over Port, something doesn't smell right here AX. Looks like Port might be the play.

 

[grindstone]

Hey AX what's up brother one hell of a hockey game last night. Nice to see you back posting again. Can't wait for your start in baseball and thanks again for all your help. As for the posted games I like right now Port- 4 and Dall +4.5, no feeling yet for the O/U on the C's game. This has to be a big loss for Bost but don't count them out yet. As for a sleeper pick AX I will say be careful with ORLANDO, they could come out of the East.

Here are the latest public #


Bost open 198 current 196.5
Chi
72% over Bet # 3851
28% under



Dall 38% open Dall -4 current Dall -4 SA 62% Bet # 2631



Hou 26% open Port - 5 Current Port - 4
Port 74% Bet # 3285

Interesting Portland opens - 5 drops 1 point and the public is still all over Port, something doesn't smell right here AX. Looks like Port might be the play.

Wow that was aweful

Public #

Bost/ Chi 70% are on the over

Dall + 4/ SA- 4 69% are on Dallas

Hou + 4/Port - 4 74% are on Port

Interesting Portland opens - 5 drops 1 point and the public is still all over Port, something doesn't smell right here AX. Looks like Port might be the play.

Sorry about the typo error on the Dall/SA game

 

[PickNPop]

Interesting Portland opens - 5 drops 1 point and the public is still all over Port, something doesn't smell right here AX. Looks like Port might be the play.

Pinny opened at POR -4 [-105] and now it's POR -4 [-112]. Seems like we're on the right side of the line movement (albeit early on)?

 

[canuckfan77]

Pinny opened at POR -4 [-105] and now it's POR -4 [-112]. Seems like we're on the right side of the line movement (albeit early on)?

It's now Port -4.5 at -110 or -4 at -119

 

[KillerKardoogan]

wow, i talk some shit about LBJ and nobody bites?

anyway, as far as your Sat. picks go, i dont do totals, but i dont see Bos. locking it down playoff style (defence + half-court offence) until they lose a game. u have to believe that they think they can win with the guys they got and the style they've been playing w/o KG. if game 1 does happen to go under, it's gonna be b/c the young Bulls were offensively inept, leaving game 2 ripe for an over.

i've only got "action" money on Port. b/c there will be easier spots ahead.
i want to be against Hou. in the game where Ron-Ron thinks he's LeBron and has take over at crunch time - u know it's coming
:142smilie

 

[PickNPop]

i've only got "action" money on Port. b/c there will be easier spots ahead.
i want to be against Hou. in the game where Ron-Ron thinks he's LeBron and has take over at crunch time - u know it's coming
:142smilie

That's every game and every quarter. Not just crunch time

 

[axp59]

My love for POR extends only for this game. This is going to be an interesting series for sure but this HOU team matches up well. The Rose is the big intangible for gm1. After that, I can't be sure. Depending on how this plays out, can HOU steal gm 2? If this goes to HOU 1-1, POR may be in big trouble.
I'm just not seeing anything the prevents POR from winning the first gm though. They've been too hot and too good lately and Nate is feeding these kids all the right things and doing everything he can to release that pressure valve.
The game revolves around Roy for POR and I think he does good things for gm 1. The problem is that Battier and Artest will adjust after this gm and no telling if Roy comes out looking like a superstar every night.

I locked POR -4. This is a 2 possession win but on the low end. Here's why POR covers

This season:
12/5 @ BOS L by 15 next matchup 12/30 @ home W by 5
22/25 @ SAS L by 15 next matchup 3/1 @ home W by 18
1/4 @ LAL L by 14 next matchup 3/9 @ home W by 17
3/5 @ DEN L by 16 next matchup 4/15 @ home W by 28
4/5 @ HOU L by 14 next matchup 4/18 @ home result?

lone blemish was an OT loss to PHI which, if you recall, was a bad spot for them coming off a 5 game road trip. These are all playoff teams on this list. This is a good spot and good value to play POR -4

 

[canuckfan77]

My love for POR extends only for this game. This is going to be an interesting series for sure but this HOU team matches up well. The Rose is the big intangible for gm1. After that, I can't be sure. Depending on how this plays out, can HOU steal gm 2? If this goes to HOU 1-1, POR may be in big trouble.
I'm just not seeing anything the prevents POR from winning the first gm though. They've been too hot and too good lately and Nate is feeding these kids all the right things and doing everything he can to release that pressure valve.
The game revolves around Roy for POR and I think he does good things for gm 1. The problem is that Battier and Artest will adjust after this gm and no telling if Roy comes out looking like a superstar every night.

I locked POR -4. This is a 2 possession win but on the low end. Here's why POR covers

This season:
12/5 @ BOS L by 15 next matchup 12/30 @ home W by 5
22/25 @ SAS L by 15 next matchup 3/1 @ home W by 18
1/4 @ LAL L by 14 next matchup 3/9 @ home W by 17
3/5 @ DEN L by 16 next matchup 4/15 @ home W by 28
4/5 @ HOU L by 14 next matchup 4/18 @ home result?

lone blemish was an OT loss to PHI which, if you recall, was a bad spot for them coming off a 5 game road trip. These are all playoff teams on this list. This is a good spot and good value to play POR -4

Pay the juice to go -4 @ -122or is -4.5 okay @-112?

Any thoughts?

 

[easterntimezone]

My love for POR extends only for this game. This is going to be an interesting series for sure but this HOU team matches up well. The Rose is the big intangible for gm1. After that, I can't be sure. Depending on how this plays out, can HOU steal gm 2? If this goes to HOU 1-1, POR may be in big trouble.
I'm just not seeing anything the prevents POR from winning the first gm though. They've been too hot and too good lately and Nate is feeding these kids all the right things and doing everything he can to release that pressure valve.
The game revolves around Roy for POR and I think he does good things for gm 1. The problem is that Battier and Artest will adjust after this gm and no telling if Roy comes out looking like a superstar every night.

The problem w/ Portland is twofold when considering them as potential series winners.

a) Offense is predictable - as mentioned previously, the Trail Blazers either get a score early in the 24 second clock or start their cuts and patterns at approximately the 12 to 10 second mark; nothing in b/w - most of their offensive arrangements are fairly basic - pick and roll, screens, etc.; nothing elaborate which would coincide w/ McMillen's storied prowess as a player on the DEFENSIVE end. More often than not, the ball ends up in Roy's hands to create something out of nothing - feasible during the regular season, but what happens when playoff defenses anticipate this and look to shut him down?

b) Point guard by committee - the 1 is the most critical position on the floor - teams (e.g. Wizards) w/ abjectly poor points complemented by quality players struggle whereas mediocre squads (e.g. Hornets) w/ elite points tend to excel. Blake, Bayless, and Rodriguez are a decent match up for the Rockets' two-headed tandem of Brooks and Lowry (Brooks is an undersized shooting guard masquerading as a point - if Lowry is able to continue to mature and grow, people won't be questioning Houston's decision to jettison Alston to the Magic down the road). Are they heads and shoulders above? Not really - which again results in Roy having to shoulder an even bigger burden in not just having to score, but also create and distribute for his teammates.

 

[axp59]

Pay the juice to go -4 @ -122or is -4.5 okay @-112?

Any thoughts?

I'd still buy @-4.5

 

[axp59]

b) Point guard by committee - the 1 is the most critical position on the floor - teams (e.g. Wizards) w/ abjectly poor points complemented by quality players struggle whereas mediocre squads (e.g. Hornets) w/ elite points tend to excel. Blake, Bayless, and Rodriguez are a decent match up for the Rockets' two-headed tandem of Brooks and Lowry (Brooks is an undersized shooting guard masquerading as a point - if Lowry is able to continue to mature and grow, people won't be questioning Houston's decision to jettison Alston to the Magic down the road). Are they heads and shoulders above? Not really - which again results in Roy having to shoulder an even bigger burden in not just having to score, but also create and distribute for his teammates.

I think the series turns on this point.

 

[eeeerock]

MUTUMBO, did you forget about him?....Look at Roy's stats vs Portland,they are terrible.Then look at Aldridge,Ald is shooting well vs Port,only problem is he hasn't been shooting well in ;ast 4 games.Can you say pressing the issue for Portland,I can.

 

[eeeerock]

I don't see what makes Portland the play of the day,however gL.Best Play here is th eUNDER.

 

[Slicer]

Accuscore as of 2:23 am Saturday:

Boston by 10.5 and 195.5
Clev by 10.9 and 173.5
Spurs by 1.5 and 181.9
Port by 3.2 and 186.6


Trend plays based on variances:

1. Unders of 1.1-1.9 are 23-16-1: Play Clev U 175
2. Dogs of 1.1-2.9 are 38-47-1: Plays Clev, Port, SA

3. Overs of 4.0+ are 9-8 : Play Port Over 182

Personally, my 3 plays are Clev Under, Port -4.5, SA Under 185.5

 

[axp59]

B Roy's numbers vs. HOU @ home since 06

12/20/06>>>>>9-3-2
4/11/07>>>>>>20-5-6
1/25/08>>>>>>23-2-2
4/3/08>>>>>>>DNP
11/6/08>>>>>>17-7-5

season avg 22.6-4.7-5.1

I wouldn't call these numbers vs. HOU @ the Rose terrible, they look average. If Battier and Artest shutting down Roy at the Rose means he plays average, I think POR can live with that.

 

[Griffin8s]

Ok digging into this one with a open mind on both sides. Warning: Homer Alert!

06/02/07 Detroit W 98-82 Conference Finals W -2 O 173
05/31/07 @ Detroit W 109-107 (OT) Conference Finals W 5.5 O 172
05/29/07 Detroit W 91-87 Conference Finals W 1.5 O 172
05/27/07 Detroit W 88-82 Conference Finals W -4 U 173
05/24/07 @ Detroit L 76-79 Conference Finals W 5.5 U 174.5
05/21/07 @ Detroit L 76-79 Conference Finals W 6.5 U 177

These are the last games played by Det/Clev in the 06-07 playoffs. These teams are notorious for close grind out games and Detroit plays the Cavs very tough everytime. The avg from all 4 games this season is 171 with 2 games under the 175 total and 2 game over it. One has to think Cavs are going to play tough on defense and eat up alot of clock when they have the ball. Or my other thought is Cavs want to just punish the Pistons and send them home just as soon as possible and its a total blow out. Cavs won 3 games this season with that avg being 12.3 and of course line right now of 12. Tight! The one game that pushs avg up where Cavs won by 21pts was in a Sunday game in Det. Other 2 games were 10pts and 6pts.
Cavs fans hate Piston's and the Q is going to be on fire. I was at the 6/02/07 and the thought the roof was going to blow off when Cavs beat them and sent themselves into the Championship. It was by far the loudest place I have every been to besides Bristol. (Nascar Cup Race) I believe Det can expect that same noise everytime they set into the Q.
So you ask what does this boil down to for me. It's a no play on the total and maybe a small smal wager on Det +12 in this first game. But, I would watch this game maybe more then once to see/help predictions in the next games these 2 play. GL to everyone today. This information I hope helps us work towards the right side of things.

 

[40seven]

Nice to see you back

 

[MLBKING]

gl today Ax. I like both Portland and the Portland over for tonight.