NBA SAT 042509 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
Okay, after a slew of overs to start, the unders have gone 6-0 the last two days. Let's hope it starts out with another under today 
I think the move on the SAS/DAL game is wrong. Will be taking SAS +4.5 or 5 (is it possible it will go higher - I doubt it).
I've been offline for a few days (and will only have sporadic access until Tuesday - on a trip until then), glad that you've been doing great:mj06: , sorry that I've missed it
Good Luck,
Bart
I think the move on the SAS/DAL game is wrong. Will be taking SAS +4.5 or 5 (is it possible it will go higher - I doubt it).
I've been offline for a few days (and will only have sporadic access until Tuesday - on a trip until then), glad that you've been doing great:mj06: , sorry that I've missed it
Good Luck,
Bart
That's a lot of money to move it 3.5 points. Something is moving it back up now. It may have bottomed out at 196.5 which still had U value IMHO. I think this is the right side.
Not sure, but people going for middles might be moving it back up.
I don't agree with this, but I know people who will automatically go for the middle if the line moves 2 points or more.
thank you
thank you
Ax,
Anything on bases today?? Can't thank you enough for yesterday's win with cleveland:00hour
wish i had full unit on it but been lost to much on your day off (thursday)
Hoping we can close this week good!
thank you
Ax,
Anything on bases today?? Can't thank you enough for yesterday's win with cleveland:00hour
wish i had full unit on it but been lost to much on your day off (thursday)
Hoping we can close this week good!
Thanks for your thoughts Ax, I really appreciate it. I am not doubting we are on the right side, I am with you!!
Also with ya and some of the same basbeball picks...hopefully I'll see ya at the window later to pick our $ :toast:
- Mar 22, 2009
- 100
- 0
- 0
Denver report
1. They block shots.
Chris Andersen, like some springy Tigger with a mean streak, blocks 9.3 percent of the 2-point shots taken while he's on the floor. That's tops in the league and 2.4 percent higher than the NBA's second-most-proficient shotblocker, Ronny Turiaf. Along with front-line partners Nene Hilario (3.1 percent) and Kenyon Martin (2.7 percent), Andersen makes the Nuggets the most intimidating, shot-changing, point-erasing team in the league, blocking 9.6 percent of the shots taken by their opponents, a full 2 percent higher than the league average. And you thought they didn't play defense.
2. They steal the ball.
Big man Martin leads the way, with a top-20 steal percentage of 2.3, but the whole club is grabby, posting a team steal percentage of 9.2 that ranks third in the NBA. That has translated to 16 steals in the first two games of the series against New Orleans, and live-ball turnovers are critical in the playoffs, because they are one of the few ways teams can manufacture easy baskets when the tempo slows.
3. Even when they're not swiping or swatting, they're tough to score on.
Billups' tough-minded approach to stopping penetration has set a tone since he came over from the Detroit Pistons in a trade for Allen Iverson in the first week of the season. Plus, Carmelo Anthony, coming off his experience with Team USA last summer, has "really started to believe in defense and the difference it makes," head coach George Karl told me before a late-season game in Los Angeles. The result, from the top down, is a team that closes on the ball and contests shots inside and out, limiting opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 48.5 (and only 50.7 percent on shot attempts in-close) which is fifth-lowest in the league, better than the Lakers (49.0 percent) and second only to the Rockets (47.8 percent) in the West. Chris Paul is shooting 40 percent from the floor in the first two games of this series, which is bad enough, but he's also struggling to get into open spaces and having to work hard to get close to the basket (he's hit four of his eight shots in the paint in the first two games).
4. They have a healthy (well, healthier) Kenyon Martin.
Martin missed 11 of the team's last 21 regular-season games due to back spasms and sore ribs, but he's logged 29 minutes a night in the past three games and appears ready for more. His adjusted plus-minus rating of 6.48 is second best on the team (behind Nene's 9.15), and his physical presence makes the Nuggets a stout defensive club inside, perhaps capable of matching up with the length of the Lakers and the strength of the Rockets. Don't take our word for it -- ask David West (13-for-36 going heads-up with Kenyon in the first two games) how Martin is feeling and what kind of difference he makes.
5. They're capable of winning on the road.
Denver was 21-20 away from the Pepsi Center this season. That's tied with New Orleans for the third-best road record in the Western Conference and a marked improvement over last season's 17-24 mark.
6. They don't need Melo to be the man.
Anthony has a history of struggling in the postseason. His eFG% was just 37.5 last season and sat at 40.0 percent in his 23 playoff games prior to this season. With an improved team defense (the Nuggets ranked eighth in the league in defensive efficiency this season, allowing 106.8 points per 100 possessions), with Billups and his 19.3 playoff PER (over nine seasons) in the fold and with J.R. Smith coming on strong (witness the jump to 22.4 points per game in April, including a 45-point night against Sacramento), Melo can ease into his opportunities each night, knowing that even if he has an off-game (he shot just 4-for-12 and scored only 13 points in Game 1) his team is capable of winning and winning big. A little less pressure on the superstar might be just what the doctor ordered.
7. They have something nobody else in the playoffs has.
The man they call Mr. Big Shot.
NO Report
The Hornets are claiming they still have confidence and believe they can come back in the series.
The evidence they keep citing is their experience last season when they were up 2-0 after winning their first two home games against the Spurs, but ended up losing.
I may be wrong, but is it really that encouraging to remind yourself how you could not win a series last season when you won the first two games when you have just lost the first two of another series?
I think they are trying to trick themselves into thinking they have a shot the way I trick myself into thinking I can have a brownie smothered in Hershey?s chocolate syrup because I will run the next day. As soon as it is time to run I start thinking about how the wind is blowing and I have other things to do. Believe it or not I somehow end up not running.
The Hornets are telling themselves they are going to run tomorrow, but if the Nuggets can make things hard on them, they will soon realize all the talk about going for a jog was just a bunch of bunk so they do not have to face the truth that they are a flat blob.
My plays are :-
Denver ML +170 --- 2 Units
Denver 1st half +2.5 --- 2 units
denver- Hor 1st half --- Under 98.5 --- 4 Units
denver 1st half & under 98.5 parlay -- 1.5 units
1. They block shots.
Chris Andersen, like some springy Tigger with a mean streak, blocks 9.3 percent of the 2-point shots taken while he's on the floor. That's tops in the league and 2.4 percent higher than the NBA's second-most-proficient shotblocker, Ronny Turiaf. Along with front-line partners Nene Hilario (3.1 percent) and Kenyon Martin (2.7 percent), Andersen makes the Nuggets the most intimidating, shot-changing, point-erasing team in the league, blocking 9.6 percent of the shots taken by their opponents, a full 2 percent higher than the league average. And you thought they didn't play defense.
2. They steal the ball.
Big man Martin leads the way, with a top-20 steal percentage of 2.3, but the whole club is grabby, posting a team steal percentage of 9.2 that ranks third in the NBA. That has translated to 16 steals in the first two games of the series against New Orleans, and live-ball turnovers are critical in the playoffs, because they are one of the few ways teams can manufacture easy baskets when the tempo slows.
3. Even when they're not swiping or swatting, they're tough to score on.
Billups' tough-minded approach to stopping penetration has set a tone since he came over from the Detroit Pistons in a trade for Allen Iverson in the first week of the season. Plus, Carmelo Anthony, coming off his experience with Team USA last summer, has "really started to believe in defense and the difference it makes," head coach George Karl told me before a late-season game in Los Angeles. The result, from the top down, is a team that closes on the ball and contests shots inside and out, limiting opponents to an effective field goal percentage of 48.5 (and only 50.7 percent on shot attempts in-close) which is fifth-lowest in the league, better than the Lakers (49.0 percent) and second only to the Rockets (47.8 percent) in the West. Chris Paul is shooting 40 percent from the floor in the first two games of this series, which is bad enough, but he's also struggling to get into open spaces and having to work hard to get close to the basket (he's hit four of his eight shots in the paint in the first two games).
4. They have a healthy (well, healthier) Kenyon Martin.
Martin missed 11 of the team's last 21 regular-season games due to back spasms and sore ribs, but he's logged 29 minutes a night in the past three games and appears ready for more. His adjusted plus-minus rating of 6.48 is second best on the team (behind Nene's 9.15), and his physical presence makes the Nuggets a stout defensive club inside, perhaps capable of matching up with the length of the Lakers and the strength of the Rockets. Don't take our word for it -- ask David West (13-for-36 going heads-up with Kenyon in the first two games) how Martin is feeling and what kind of difference he makes.
5. They're capable of winning on the road.
Denver was 21-20 away from the Pepsi Center this season. That's tied with New Orleans for the third-best road record in the Western Conference and a marked improvement over last season's 17-24 mark.
6. They don't need Melo to be the man.
Anthony has a history of struggling in the postseason. His eFG% was just 37.5 last season and sat at 40.0 percent in his 23 playoff games prior to this season. With an improved team defense (the Nuggets ranked eighth in the league in defensive efficiency this season, allowing 106.8 points per 100 possessions), with Billups and his 19.3 playoff PER (over nine seasons) in the fold and with J.R. Smith coming on strong (witness the jump to 22.4 points per game in April, including a 45-point night against Sacramento), Melo can ease into his opportunities each night, knowing that even if he has an off-game (he shot just 4-for-12 and scored only 13 points in Game 1) his team is capable of winning and winning big. A little less pressure on the superstar might be just what the doctor ordered.
7. They have something nobody else in the playoffs has.
The man they call Mr. Big Shot.
NO Report
The Hornets are claiming they still have confidence and believe they can come back in the series.
The evidence they keep citing is their experience last season when they were up 2-0 after winning their first two home games against the Spurs, but ended up losing.
I may be wrong, but is it really that encouraging to remind yourself how you could not win a series last season when you won the first two games when you have just lost the first two of another series?
I think they are trying to trick themselves into thinking they have a shot the way I trick myself into thinking I can have a brownie smothered in Hershey?s chocolate syrup because I will run the next day. As soon as it is time to run I start thinking about how the wind is blowing and I have other things to do. Believe it or not I somehow end up not running.
The Hornets are telling themselves they are going to run tomorrow, but if the Nuggets can make things hard on them, they will soon realize all the talk about going for a jog was just a bunch of bunk so they do not have to face the truth that they are a flat blob.
My plays are :-
Denver ML +170 --- 2 Units
Denver 1st half +2.5 --- 2 units
denver- Hor 1st half --- Under 98.5 --- 4 Units
denver 1st half & under 98.5 parlay -- 1.5 units
Last edited:
Sorry Eagle, been afk watching the game. Just for future reference, I rarely hedge. Live and die by the wager.
