NBA SAT 103109 early thoughts - value hunting

axp59

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Oct 8, 2008
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Old habits die hard. I thought about it and I'm going to sleep in late tomorrow and go to my favorite diner for breakfast. My waitress will have plays for me. Some of you guys know her. LMAO I decided to pre-capp some games tonight and get the hard part over with.

I am eyeballing

POR/HOU U185.5
SAC/SAS O199.5
DAL -4
DAL/LAC U198

Thoughts? :thinking:
 

softballmaniac

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Good morning Ax. Congrats on another profitable night of capping. Simply amazing. Fantastic way to start the season. 3 dimes at the poker table is certainly nothing to complain about either. :00hour LOL Keep that going as well. My goodness, i wish i had something to offer you guys in this forum. All i do is read and take notes. UGH Off to a meeting. Check back after while. Great job guys!!!
 

gamecocks207

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my 2 cents

my 2 cents

Good Morning All
Some late night capping huh Ax??

For some reason New York + 2.5 is looking good. still doing some research on it... Ax any thoughts?

:00hour
 

Mustang29

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Oct 13, 2009
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Once again, nice pics last night Ax & co., took your Chi/BOS ov and parlayed it with S. Florida to win last night in Cfball.....
Like softballmaniac-wish I could over some opinions on bball, but football/hockey my games. Thanks for the bball insight...you guys killing it!
BOL-keep er rollin'
 

Griffin8s

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Great start this year Ax. I didn't take that Over you had yesterday.(Becuz I'm a idiot!:142smilie ) But went with only one play which I posted yesterday in the thread Cle Under 192. I know you didn't get to see the game so here is how it went for me. With about 1min something to go only one more basket and it was a loser so I walked outside for a smoke and thought to myself "oh well there's always tomorrow". My perfect record in Bball for the season so far is over. So when I come back inside I see that the game is over and interviews are going on and I think well wonder what the final was and how bad it was. They finally post it up 104-87, man I had to double check it with a calculator I couldn't believe it! Won it by 1 point, 1 point!! And the record continues!!

Sorry about the long wind guys but I just wanted to share that feeling I had last night when I thought I lost but came to find out I won. Nothing better then that feeling right there at that moment.

As for the games posted Ax still working through them. GL today guys!!:00hour
 

proguy747

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nice day yesterday ax.

I like the clippers/dallas under. The clips play to the opponents pace. They hold there own and do not have the ability to set the pace and outscore their opponents by big margins... however they are playing very well up until the fourth quarter as they do not have a go to guy and opposing defenses clamp down to pull away. This collapse in the fourth will be good for dallas -4 bet also..

Dallas seemed to disrupt the lakers offense alot last night.. alot of attempted steals and pokes making the lakers set the offense very late in the shot clock. The one negative was the talk from the coach about trying to speed up the pace. I know he want this up-tempo but his team is old.

However this could be a result of the lakers struggles against teams with fast backcourts.
 

easterntimezone

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I like the clippers/dallas under. The clips play to the opponents pace. They hold there own and do not have the ability to set the pace and outscore their opponents by big margins... however they are playing very well up until the fourth quarter as they do not have a go to guy and opposing defenses clamp down to pull away. This collapse in the fourth will be good for dallas -4 bet also..

Dallas seemed to disrupt the lakers offense alot last night.. alot of attempted steals and pokes making the lakers set the offense very late in the shot clock. The one negative was the talk from the coach about trying to speed up the pace. I know he want this up-tempo but his team is old.

However this could be a result of the lakers struggles against teams with fast backcourts.

Lakers' inflated sense of self came back to haunt them against Dallas last night - coasting and figuring that they'd be able to turn it on at the end to get a victory, they were stymied and looked to be agitated, almost as if they were trying to channel the anger as a means of motivation - which never did arrive for them. Dallas executed its game plan well and relied on a faster unit by foregoing Dampier for a lot of the game and relying on the shorter, but hustling Kris Humphries.

Clippers usually in a false state of being able to compete in the games they've been in until the bubble bursts in the 4th quarter - Davis still forcing the issue - whereas the focal point of the offense should be Gordon w/ Kaman, complemented by Thornton and Butler. Davis effectively kills the offense of the team he's ON.

Question remains if Mavericks come out w/ a letdown performance after winning versus the Lake Show. Enough veteran presence to mitigate against that, but it's a crapshoot pinpointing what passes for brains and focus among NBA players.
 

proguy747

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locked
nmst+44
syracuse +16
cuse over 52
nebraska -13
central michigan +5.5

leans
florida -14
philly/yanks under 9
 

jlippens

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Axp!

Edit: ...and slicer, and EST, and proguy. THE WHOLE CREW IS BACK IN TOWN
 
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BIGWave

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Clippers +5.5

t:team=Mavericks and 10<=tp:margin and tp:season=season and tp:site=away and tp:points*0.25<=tp:free throws made and 20020103<=date


BOL :shrug:
Joe

Another one of those lines that makes you scratch your head.
BIG letdown spot for DALL after embarrassing LALlast night...............

Nice find Joe!!
 

axp59

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An observation:

NJ/WAS has dropped significantly to 192.5 presenting possible value on the O.

Just a thought.

DAL/LAC opened @ 199 (Pinny). Many books had this OTB for good reason. Now at 193. Interesting turn of events. I may just lay off this one. No need tempting fate. The POR/HOU number is stable and I like it there.

Be back in a few
 

axp59

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Good Morning All
Some late night capping huh Ax??

For some reason New York + 2.5 is looking good. still doing some research on it... Ax any thoughts?

:00hour
I am going to sit out this particular inter-divisional match-up. I have an uneasy feeling with one possesion between these two teams.
 

logan

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already locked in at hou un 186. i also like det tonight. any thoughts on that one ax?
 

axp59

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already locked in at hou un 186. i also like det tonight. any thoughts on that one ax?

My uneasiness about inter-divisional match-ups seperated by one posession extends to this game as well. This is only a gut thing for me. My numbers indicate a VERY SLIGHT lean on DET but I'm not biting. BOL logan
 

axp59

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The DET/MIL 183.5 is an interesting number. Has this bottomed out? Let's take the 3 point diff and say 93-90 either way. That's reasonable and could still be on the high side of an estimate. There could still be value even at this low 183. Just curious.
 
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