NBA SAT 121209 early thoughts - value hunting

[BillyBatts]

Leans

Leans

Great night last night fellas, especially Ax and Joe. :00hour Well done.

Only looking at one game,

Mavs-Bobs Under 189




For those of you considering the Celts under...
Yes the Celts can play lock down D, but they are still one of the highest scoring teams in the League. Considering the Bulls have given up 99+ in 9 out of last 11, I could see Boston getting out to an early lead and the Bulls folding like a tent, and have zero interst in playing any defense.
Just my opinion.

BOLTA. Be back in a couple hours. kurby

 

[ChumpChange]

Just a thought on the game most are talking about.

It's one of the 4 I'm tossing around. I think this could still be available @225 with some real value. That's were I set my lower limit for an Under play last night. No doubt this one goes into the hundreds for both teams but 225? I'm going to keep diggin. :walk:

Since you like that Phoenix / Denver under also ... I think I'll play it for action !!!

You playing poker tonight ??? If so , good luck and wear sun glasses

 

[logan]

I am getting the phx game at 225 I have it capped at 215.

Also playing the under on the wizards at 207 I have it capped at 197.

g/l everyone

 

[Bennymac17]

FWIW, it looks like Accuscore has the PHX-DEN game at 232.

 

[axp59]

Very interesting point by BennyMac.

Ran the numbers for teams scoring at least 120 at home and allowing the visiting team to score at least 110 and win the game.

ACCU is calling the game 122-110 DEN. so I ran this:

points>=120 and ooints>=110 and season=2009 and site=home and points>ooints


no surprise it's 12-0 SU home team and 12-0 over.

Dig deep...what happened in these games? The answers are in the DPA and DPS numbers. except for two games, all are in DD, mostly in the 20's and as high as the 30's.

I'd play the over too if I'd known these teams are going to score about 50 more points than they usually do.

Bet the norm and not the exception. One man's opinion.

:SIB

 

[mikeyyy]

nice pick with ohio

nice pick with ohio

nice pick with ohio, slicer

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY

Week 1 5-2
Week 2 4-3
Week 3 4-3

YTD: 13-8 (61.90%)

Ohio Bobcats -3.5 @ Delaware Blue Hens

The Bobcats come into this game at 4-3 on the season, their last 3 all losses by a combined 10 points, including a 1 pt loss and a 2 pt loss to a pair of 7-1 and 6-2 teams on the road @ Tulsa and Marshall, both respected CUSA teams at the top of their league.

The Bobcats sport a balanced starting lineup with 4 players averaging 11+ points and the 5th at 9.7 ppg. While they are not an outstanding shooting team, they are decent from the FT line and ranked #20 in the country in rebounding. They have a deep bench with alot of players getting 10+ minutes per game and are still averaging 77.9 pts per game as a team.

The Blue Hens are a dismal 2-6 on the year with 1 win @ home and 1 on the road, their latest win was the one at home over Hamtpon a 2-8 team and even then the Blue Hens recorded only 55 pts on a team that gives up an average of 65. The Blue Hens are a 3 man team essentially with Carter, Dawson and Boney. They lack quality off the bench, they shoot horribly from 3pt land and the FT line.

The one stat the Blue Hens have in their favor is Ohio's lack of ability to win on the road going 2-8-1 in their last 11. However, there is a nice little revenge angle to this game as the Blue Hens delivered an 11 pt victory last year over Ohio. Delaware was led by 21 pts from Marc Egerson who is no longer there and contributed 11 of the blue hens 33 rebounds in a game where Ohio still won the rebounding 38-33.

My money is on the fact that despite the 2 close losses on the road by the Bobcats, they are almost there as a team and the Blue Hens will not be able to catch up to the Bobcats scoring pace, nor will they be able to obtain many 2nd chance baskets as the Bobcats should dominate the boards.

Had to make a change to line it's -3.5 not 3, was 3 when I looked at it, then went to lock it in and it was -3.5, all the same :mj06:

 

[JCWhy]

Looking at todays card I thought there would be at least 1 solid play but instead I have 3 games that are only leans at the moment.

Pacers/Wizards U207
Warriors/Pistons U206
TWolves/Kings O206


It seems like Suns/Nuggets is the game talked about most in here. FWIW, I cap it at 223 so I will be staying away but would have played it if i caught the opening number. :shrug:

 

[JCWhy]

GS playing their 3rd in 4 nights, shot a horrific 38%against the Bulls last night and didn't hit the century mark even with OT. Detroit may be w/out Gordon again tonight which equates to lower scoring with Rip and Prince out as weil. Stuckey can't provide all the offense as was evident against Den. Stuckey had 25 and only 1 other starter hit double figures with 12. This should be very similar to Det/Den the other night. Det will slow the pace keeping this in the mid 90's at best.

GL - Granpa :toast:

I am seeing this the same as you. My numbers don't come out exactly where I want but I think I'm going to lock it in anyway.
GL

 

[Truckin']

0-3 YTD

1U Utah -2

If Kobe plays he will not be 100%, Jazz w/ revenge on there minds, Jazz very solid at home and Lakers have not been tested on the road yet this year, shit they have only had 4 road games. Lakers 11 game win streak ends tonight.

I think this is a great spot for Utah

BOL to All

 

[axp59]

Since you like that Phoenix / Denver under also ... I think I'll play it for action !!!

You playing poker tonight ??? If so , good luck and wear sun glasses

Cards tonight :scared seems my game doesn't feel so natural now that I've read all those articles on strategy and such. Too much thought involved right now but I'm sure this will become second nature soon.

I hope that PHO/DEN U hits buddy. I couldn't get the right number.

I do like:

IND +7.5
IND/WAS U207.5

Public loves MIL tonight. Got some house money on POR +4

:mj06: Here's to not giving any $$$ back to the books tonight.

One last thought, a few nights ago I mentioned chasing UTA for payback against LAL. I'm not going through with that play.

Now...Poker

BOLTA

 

[arabmoney]

hey ax, i see more of the public on port plus the pts, my dude u kno i value ur piks and such, can u please tell me why u look indy

 

[easterntimezone]

One last thought, a few nights ago I mentioned chasing UTA for payback against LAL. I'm not going through with that play.

See that the %age favors the Lakers, but suspect that it's the crowd that wagers on the Lake Show regardless of opponent; all signs would point towards Utah exacting payback, but there's not much love lost b/w the Lakers and Jazz - do they hate Utah as much as they do Phoenix? Likely not, but there's definitely no love-in like they enjoy currently w/ Minnesota b/c of Rambis's presence there... If Kobe and company elect to do so, they'll beat Utah again and continue the dismantling of the Energy Solutions arena as a formidable fortress.

Best of luck to all - hope everyone sits in the black after this slate of games.

 

[grindstone]

Cards tonight :scared seems my game doesn't feel so natural now that I've read all those articles on strategy and such. Too much thought involved right now but I'm sure this will become second nature soon.

I hope that PHO/DEN U hits buddy. I couldn't get the right number.

I do like:

IND +7.5
IND/WAS U207.5

Public loves MIL tonight. Got some house money on POR +4

:mj06: Here's to not giving any $$$ back to the books tonight.

One last thought, a few nights ago I mentioned chasing UTA for payback against LAL. I'm not going through with that play.

Now...Poker

BOLTA

Glad we are the same page Sir good luck and like ChumpChange said don't forget your glasses tonight

GLTA

 

[rragga2727]

i thought you meant pound the jazz against the magic.:shrug: :mj06:
dal-6 bought the hook

glta

 

[grindstone]

AX check your email SUCKER BET IS IN TAKE IT NOW.

CALLING AX :director:

GL my friend

 

[Slicer]

nice pick with ohio, slicer

Glad to pick up a W to start the week :00hour

 

[proguy747]

AX check your email SUCKER BET IS IN TAKE IT NOW.

CALLING AX :director:

GL my friend

can you share with the rest of us

 

[grindstone]

NCAA GEM OF THE DAY

Week 1 5-2
Week 2 4-3
Week 3 4-3

YTD: 13-8 (61.90%)

Ohio Bobcats -3.5 @ Delaware Blue Hens

The Bobcats come into this game at 4-3 on the season, their last 3 all losses by a combined 10 points, including a 1 pt loss and a 2 pt loss to a pair of 7-1 and 6-2 teams on the road @ Tulsa and Marshall, both respected CUSA teams at the top of their league.

The Bobcats sport a balanced starting lineup with 4 players averaging 11+ points and the 5th at 9.7 ppg. While they are not an outstanding shooting team, they are decent from the FT line and ranked #20 in the country in rebounding. They have a deep bench with alot of players getting 10+ minutes per game and are still averaging 77.9 pts per game as a team.

The Blue Hens are a dismal 2-6 on the year with 1 win @ home and 1 on the road, their latest win was the one at home over Hamtpon a 2-8 team and even then the Blue Hens recorded only 55 pts on a team that gives up an average of 65. The Blue Hens are a 3 man team essentially with Carter, Dawson and Boney. They lack quality off the bench, they shoot horribly from 3pt land and the FT line.

The one stat the Blue Hens have in their favor is Ohio's lack of ability to win on the road going 2-8-1 in their last 11. However, there is a nice little revenge angle to this game as the Blue Hens delivered an 11 pt victory last year over Ohio. Delaware was led by 21 pts from Marc Egerson who is no longer there and contributed 11 of the blue hens 33 rebounds in a game where Ohio still won the rebounding 38-33.

My money is on the fact that despite the 2 close losses on the road by the Bobcats, they are almost there as a team and the Blue Hens will not be able to catch up to the Bobcats scoring pace, nor will they be able to obtain many 2nd chance baskets as the Bobcats should dominate the boards.

Had to make a change to line it's -3.5 not 3, was 3 when I looked at it, then went to lock it in and it was -3.5, all the same :mj06:

Nice call Slice, nice YTD now at 14-8 (63.64%). Keep up the great work, much appreciated :toast:

 

[granpa]

I am seeing this the same as you. My numbers don't come out exactly where I want but I think I'm going to lock it in anyway.
GL

Cash it JC! :00hour

 

[bulldog]

anybody else have portland, portland under, and dallas under.


lost all 3 bets in overtime. does anybody here take overtime into consideration when handicapping games. think may have to start putting overtime into my over/under numbers.