NBA SUN 032209 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[kenman]

Gibson7,

I'm with you on MIA+?... DET this season is 2-11 SU 1-12 ATS played on SUNDAY

SDQL text: team=Pistons and season=2008 and day=Sunday


no direct links to pay service sites:admin

GL Gib

 

[axp59]

Edit: I'm too freakin' tired. See everyone in the morning!

amazing analysis jlipp, i think you have the trinity covered. stats, trends & situation. thank you

 

[axp59]

thanx ax n everyone

no, thank you, this is good. I'm curious about the CLE game. It does seem to me that this team is headed in a different direction defensively for a team getting ready for the playoffs. Are they just bored as what happens with teams certain to make the playoffs? We understand that defense always suffers first when your mind is not into the game. And as you mentioned, NJ and over is somewhat synonymous as of late, the lean is obvious and I am personally leaning that way. Tell me why this game goes under?

 

[BIGWave]

I see Det -1.0 to -1.5 has been released. :0corn

 

[eeeerock]

A little more about this Minn/OKC game..

They last played Jan 7 -09, Minnesota won by 42.In that game Minnesota had Jefferson,now they don't.Also in that game you had Minn shoot it 92X making 48 for 52%.OKC took 88 shots making 35 for 40%....digging a little deeper you had OKC W/15 fast break points and Minn W/10...Points in the paint Minn 62 OKC 40...Alot of points in the paint but not a lot of fast break points,so what does that say for today,you be the decider their...Not sure on the total myself as I agree when bad teams play each other they like to score,just seems that points won't be as abundant to me,however I will be playing OKC -1.Revenge off a 42 point ass whooping is enough for me,come on, if your at home and playing OKC and your not favored,your not winning.GL.

 

[Flippa2HeadCoin]

Beautiful Sunday

Beautiful Sunday

As always, GREAT play last night.
Orl under and Cavs over was ur instantaneous birthday/christmas pick.
I took under 105 for 2nd half of Orlando. living on the edge. :grins:

mia/det open = det -2 o/u 184


Thanks again, A-Team.

 

[axp59]

Looking over the card, one of the ones that caught my eye was the Clippers/Raptors total. At 209, it appears right on, but I think there could be some value here.


Looking forward to breakin down some more tomorrow!

King, please share when you find out the numbers. "You had me at hello".
I love the situational analysis. As the regular participants know about me, this is probably my weakest point so I always enjoy reading the arguments of a solid situational capper.

You are right on about this number being correct. This appears tight to me and the guys in the back room did their homework. I also agree there may be some value here. Now my real question...without the number, where would you buy this game at? No stats...nothing. Had this come out @ 205, was there even a remote chance of buying? This tells me how comfortable you are with this 209 number being 'off' even by just a tiny bit.

thank you pkking...solid!

 

[axp59]

OKC has only been a road favorite once this season. That game was back in January, and they lost to the Clippers 104-107 as 3.5 point favorites.

thanks Bart

 

[eeeerock]

no, thank you, this is good. I'm curious about the CLE game. It does seem to me that this team is headed in a different direction defensively for a team getting ready for the playoffs. Are they just bored as what happens with teams certain to make the playoffs? We understand that defense always suffers first when your mind is not into the game. And as you mentioned, NJ and over is somewhat synonymous as of late, the lean is obvious and I am personally leaning that way. Tell me why this game goes under?

Cavs have been great on back to backs,and on the road,the only thing here is it is a home and home with a few days off between.Not sure I will do anything but wait and play opposit of todays outcome in the next meeting...I believe if it goes under today that the next game will go Over,all depending on the number that comes out of course,but sometimes the first game is a bait for the next and without a good feel here will wait.Like some said there is college ball and like a few over there.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Hi guys! No plays for me on sunday!!

BOL :violin:
Joe

 

[axp59]

games between poor teams like okc/min (<0.300) tend to over generally - it's o/u 52-26 this season and 178-134 since 2002/3.
similar over trend for lac/tor - home teams with <35% against team with <30% are o/u 35-15 this season and 125-93 since 2002/3.

and much more so this season. my point was centered around the 200 number which does appear low enough for these teams to eclipse but the trend in a much more focused query raises flags which doesn't support an 'auto-over' play between to terrible teams.
good eye. thank you

 

[proguy747]

good morning boys . it is still early but how come no one is talking about nawlin/gsw. In the last 30 games at home no game has even come close to this total. 215 at first sight looks heaven with a 10 point+ cushion. will dig deeper but wow looks like a wiiner under card.

 

[axp59]

22 march early thoughts

Oklahoma-Minesota (over 199 )(play of the day)

we will see more than 200 points..no defence no defence

thanks picks...this game and number has certainly peaked the interest of the many cappers on this thread. I for one, after reading the many insightful commentary on this game will wager my normal tail amount. I'm sorry that I missed the boat by a hook. and hope this doesn't get me like the BOS/MEM last night.

Thanks guys. This is why I love doing this thread. Personally, I wouldn't have even consider this play but I'm sold. Very solid arguments! Thank you!

NBA [705] TOTAL o199?-110
(OKLAHOMA CITY vrs MINNESOTA)

 

[axp59]

Rockets @Spurs 177

thank you
my lean also but they did beat a 178 by 9 in HOU on 11/29.

 

[axp59]

The problem with Spurs under is that I don't see either team breaking off to a big lead, and there is a risk for OT or "last-min-fouls", but it can work both ways, as a 1 possesion game down the wire might actually lead to even more clock milking.

you can always count on the NBA! That moose is just around the corner.

 

[axp59]

I will take Miami if they open as a +4 or more DOG.

they really got me with this DET -1.5 line. I'd like to say I didn't see this coming but as you've pointed out, DET has nothing to get hyped about. Begging for DET $$$ IMHO.

 

[axp59]

How about this trend in the OKC/MIN game today...

Play on the FAV in revenge of previous match up that they lost by 20pts or more. 18-2 SU/16-3 ATS
PLAY ON -- OKC-1

P:margin<=-20 and 20090101<=date and F

and even more compelling when you do this

P:margin<=-20 and 20090101<=date and F and site = away

4-0 SU
4-0 ATS

 

[proguy747]

This why I hate vegas. Not a single home game for nawlins has come close to 215. Hornets have conviced me that they stay true to there style of play based on the last two games against the worst two teams in the league. Easy to take loser teams lightly and just run up and down the court. I see some pride coming out for the hornets as they know that gsw is a scoring machine, however this is there house and no running is allowed.

 

[proguy747]

dump truck is backing up someone please stop with a reason this line is so far off.

 

[Flippa2HeadCoin]

mia/det 184
71%
29%

hou/sas 177.5
75%
25%

lac/tor 209
64%
36%

okc/min 199 <---- went down 1min ago.
54%
46%