NBA SUN 032809 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter axp59
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- Mar 18, 2009
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burnetto57
burnetto57
And add to that an almost 2-1 O/U for G.St. away and Bost. @ home - if it were @ G.St. the #s wud be in fav or Under.
burnetto57
And add to that an almost 2-1 O/U for G.St. away and Bost. @ home - if it were @ G.St. the #s wud be in fav or Under.
In case Ax isn't around right now, I'll give a piece of advice he'd in all likelihood give: tread lightly. He said he liked it, but he didn't say he was locking in for a reason-- partially due to the fact that he doesn't completely trust his own opinion when looking at C's games. He was looking for additional opinions before making a play on this.
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man, i have no clue and I don't want to go to that well too many times. This the only one you're looking at bro?
This is correct because the numbers released by the books are adjusted. pure numbers...there is a difference because of both the offensive and defensive schemes they run. I wish ETZ was here to do the game analysis but from a numbers point of view, there is a slight difference in the total numbers for and against.
Sorry, I should have made it clear that, yeah, I am aware that numbers change due to injuries. To be a little more clear it's my belief that the increased public money on Celtics OVERS when KG is out of lineup ("HEY KG IS OUT, BET THE OVER", it's an easy response) either cancels any value in betting adjusted C's overs or perhaps even creates small value going the other way.
Been a good day so far :00hour
Now that I'm up for the week pressing a little tonight:
Bos Over 190 1U
SA -1.5 1/2 unit
Kings +6 1/2 unit
Kings ML +220 $100 action
Now that I'm up for the week pressing a little tonight:
Bos Over 190 1U
SA -1.5 1/2 unit
Kings +6 1/2 unit
Kings ML +220 $100 action
- Mar 18, 2009
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That's what I'm looking at brother because the public is all over this and is Vegas willing to give us a free gift. What is hard here is that Sac is just a bad team and I'm worried just as well but I keep asking myself why is this line not moving after all this one sided public action???
Yes...that is very hyped when KG is out...the thing about this game, as objectively as I could possibly look at this game...I actually do like the the big O in this one.
Sounds like you have a side in mind already bro...go with your gut man...if you don't and it wins, you'll hate yourself...if you bet it and it loses, you can live with it.
Hmm, okay. Did you break down the matchup earlier in the thread and I missed it? Because on first glance what I mentioned above about OKC not holding up their end of the deal would scare me. Then again, I also don't want to lay double digits on Boston winning (with or without KG, I hate late backdoor covers, and usually bet 1st halfs on heavy favourites for this reason).
We have a bit of time to break this down properly prior to tip, so if you want to, we can. Emphasis on a bit of time, though! Unless we decide something absolutely jumps out at us it seems like this might be a bit forced this close to tip.
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- Mar 18, 2009
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No breakdown jlipp, other than stating a side or the o/u on the c's, I refrain or try very hard from publishing any notes . It may be read by someone not knowing my partiality.
homer alert
My thoughts on this going over depends on both 2nd teams. There is a very good chance this is where the over is won or lost. I've ran my projections on the 2nd team production for each team against each other and the models are indicating a better than average chance of exceeding offensive performances in the past. The actual numbers are projected to be about 10-15 + for each teams' 2nd team. Assuming the 1st team plays as expected, this additional output points to an over..
homer alert
My thoughts on this going over depends on both 2nd teams. There is a very good chance this is where the over is won or lost. I've ran my projections on the 2nd team production for each team against each other and the models are indicating a better than average chance of exceeding offensive performances in the past. The actual numbers are projected to be about 10-15 + for each teams' 2nd team. Assuming the 1st team plays as expected, this additional output points to an over..
- Mar 18, 2009
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Sorry bro...
so how you going to play this???? now I need to know...
No play yet but I'll keep watching it to see what the line does. But I am leaning Sac + 6
- Mar 19, 2009
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PS. Mods have no integrity: Covers is owned by the MGM in Vegas; we are all haterzzz if someone starts winning too much; mods have quadruple standards (minimum) and we ban people for childish reasons like members building up a customer base then going tout like Turc did.
- Mar 18, 2009
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FWIW:
teams playing their fourth game in five days after overtime are 8-40 ATS if this is at least their third straight game with a total higher than their average total.
and 0-16 if not playing in same time zone as last night.
phoenix in very bad situation here.
my play:Sacramento+5
I think we all know where this came from. And with the line not moving............hmmmm!!!
