NBA SUN 041909 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[axp59]

The only things showing up on my radar are:

New Orleans at Denver-6
O194.5

Not crazy about the numbers for the other 3. Not locked in so I can watch these numbers move.

BOL

 

[KillerKardoogan]

Denver has to be ^75% to cover this.
They know their history, and now that AI is gone, I do believe this actually matters to them.
We saw what UNC did in this spot.

While Billups' game is not what it was, he has matured these knuckleheads.
We saw what KG did in this spot.
I've never been a Melo fan, but he's impressed me this year. In that game where SA rested the big 3, Melo was the only one who came focused. People laugh at Denver's defence, but they are 4th in def. FG% (this is easily the most reliable stat for predicting a quality team).

As for NO, they were never the same team this year as last, and that's even before their injuries. Peja and Chandler are not in game shape, and they miss Pargo A LOT - they killed last year with that 2 PG lineup.
As good as they were last year, they went 1-4 on the road in the playoffs, losing by 10,11,20,and 19.

Finally, the matchups.
If Denver puts their offensive lineup (JR Smith) on the floor, who does Peja guard? If NO takes Peja out, we've seen how bad that goes.
K Mart will defence West better most.
Carter will provide some help in slowing CP.
Lastly, Nene had a GREAT year, and, next to the heart transplant, he gives Denver what they needed most.

VROOM VROOM PARTY STARTA

 

[rragga2727]

pdx turned a great day into a good day , and man does san antonio look old ,so onto tommorrow, nice write up killer. early lean was on denver they really have been consistant throughout the year then i watch houston destroy portland :00x4 and im thinking it's like the same matchup new orleans is a playoff tested team and have won big games. Denver a playoff dissappointment. Denver at home, chauncy the general ,great leadership. new orleans having to get healthy in shape pull it all together fast. new orleans is 1-8 as a <6pt spread road dog . denver 23-17 home ats. denver in their last 10 home games,( all wins) only 1 game was a less than double digit spread (8 pts ny) .I've seen alot of both these teams this year and denver has really impressed -nene,anderson(possible comeback player of the year) ,kleiza are great role players. new orleans has been a dissappointment for me this year , but they do have cp3 and its a guarantee he is gonna give his all. dogs were sure barking today!!!!!my play is den-6, and mco -9 over phl.......:00x32

 

[rragga2727]

utah 210.5 16%side 83%total
la-11 84% 17%

side up to -12 ,totalas high as 211

phl 190.5 37% 62%total
orl-9.5 63% 38%
side from-9 to -9.5 total from 190.5 to 191

mia 186.5 51% 43%total
atl-4.5 49% 57%
side from -4.5 to 5, total from 186 to 186.5

new orl 194.5 25% 80%total
den-6 75% 20%
side 6 to 6.5, total 194.5 to 195.5


numbers are really sharp! playoff time , time to sharpen those pencils and find the right plays:mj17: :grouphug: :00x33 then we celebrate!!!:mj06:

 

[axp59]

Denver has to be ^75% to cover this.

Hey man, I'm sold! You're so right about a different Melo and the way Chauncey has stepped in to say, "let me show you guys a real 1". I just locked the side. I'm not so sure on the total and may just pass. I have to run some numbers. I still have a lean on the over but as you've said, DEN can play some defense. hmmmm...well, plenty of time to look at this one.

 

[axp59]

numbers are really sharp! playoff time , time to sharpen those pencils and find the right plays:mj17: :grouphug: :00x33 then we celebrate!!!:mj06:

I'm about to make a real square statement. I think I'm going to see how the other games play out to see were I go with the total for DEN/NOH. I realize that each game is an independent event but I think it helps me personally to watch the day's games. I'm hoping an angle I'd overlooked pops up or maybe game-time arrives and still have no action. Great thing about betting, there's always something to bet on tomorrow.

 

[LDB]

BOL AXP..

 

[axp59]

Thanks LDB..same to you pal.

 

[Slicer]

Accuscore as of 10:38 am EST

NBA Accuscore Playoff Record 3-5
NBA Sides 2-2
NBA Totals 1-3

Sunday's

Lakers 13.5 and 212.9
Magic 12.5 and 189.5
Hawks 5.0 and 185.6
Nuggets 3.0 and 197.2

My 1 and only play of the day today: Magic -9

 

[easterntimezone]

Hey man, I'm sold! You're so right about a different Melo and the way Chauncey has stepped in to say, "let me show you guys a real 1". I just locked the side. I'm not so sure on the total and may just pass. I have to run some numbers. I still have a lean on the over but as you've said, DEN can play some defense. hmmmm...well, plenty of time to look at this one.

Billups is the difference maker - holding teammates accountable for their actions (whereas Anderson and he didn't participate, he ripped into the rest of the team for their lackluster effort in New Jersey during the regular season, admonishing them for having partied in the early hours of the morning before the game), especially on the defensive end. As much as he is a diplomat, the score from Cleveland yesterday likely has some degree of motivation as well.

Chris Paul is the Hornets - that's it - easy for playoff defenses to focus on him by closing off lanes to West as well as racing out to the perimeter to contest Butler, thereby forcing Paul to become a scorer which doesn't bode well for New Orleans.

 

[CoFred]

Ax, you already locked Denver -6 in for 1U? You don't think you're going to play anything else?
:toast:

 

[MLBKING]

gl today Ax. I was hoping to see you on the Jazz O/210

 

[axp59]

Chris Paul is the Hornets

So true ETZ but if some of his guys show up, this could be trouble. I agree that DEN will focus on Paul and take their chances.

 

[axp59]

Ax, you already locked Denver -6 in for 1U? You don't think you're going to play anything else?
:toast:

numbers are tight for my routine. Locked DEN -6 but still up in the air on the total. That could be it for me today.

 

[axp59]

gl today Ax. I was hoping to see you on the Jazz O/210

BOL with that action MLB. Funny you should mention that game. If I were to play any other game today, it would be the over on UTA/LAL. I capped this game to go way over the number posted. I think I may be getting picky with a short board. The reason why I decided not to play this was not that it wasn't a good play, it was more about where the money has been falling around the posted number. Picky, I know.

Get this one MLB!

 

[Crockie]

Hi Ax :mj06:

I already logged in the over Utah/LA and the under Miamia/Atlanta. Would you choose the under @ Miami? And what do you say about the total movement @ Denver/New Orleans? 83% on the over and the line moves down (now @ 194) :shrug:

 

[Turc]

:0corn

 

[canuckfan77]

:0corn

Any thoughts Turc? Please share.

 

[axp59]

Hi Ax :mj06:

I already logged in the over Utah/LA and the under Miamia/Atlanta. Would you choose the under @ Miami? And what do you say about the total movement @ Denver/New Orleans? 83% on the over and the line moves down (now @ 194) :shrug:

Crockie, I like your under on MIA and I trended it that way but when I capped stats, it was too tight too call. That movement on DEN/NOH total is giving me more and more of a reason to sit that one out but the game is still 8 hours from now so things may change. BOL Crockie!

 

[axp59]

Any thoughts Turc? Please share.

Yeah, Turc...that popcorn is bad for you