NBA SUN 051009 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)

[axp59]

SUN is going be interesting. I'm not posting anything yet because I want to know what others are thinking. Are my beloved C's done? Do the numbers in the LAL/HOU give us any value?
I've been thinking value calculations for next season. Yes, I'm already preparing and I strongly recommend keeping good notes for use next year. I am curious if anyone else does value calculations. I use Accu predicted outcomes using their 10,000 sims as the projected % number. Has anyone used public numbers on the ML action to determine their value calcs. The DEN ML for example had a 43.6% win prob but the public action on the ML was about 69%. Calculating at this much higher % will yield a greater value number and a bigger trigger for action. Has anyone done this in the past? Thanks fellas.

 

[PeePee]

As much as I love my Rockets, I think Lak ML is a good bet, probably around -200. Pair it up with some base plays to find value.
Without Yao, there's not enough big men to hold Pau and Odom.

 

[Eagle123]

Stay Cool Ax

As usual


祝我們好運 !!!:director:

 

[barts185]

I do my own calculations for future bets, but I don't do it until close to the start of the season.

Got burned a few times by injuries or trades right before the start af the season.

I figure it will eventually cost me, but so far even though I've at times taken worse totals, it hasn't. Again, just a matter of time.

The DET trade a few days into the season this year DID cost me. I would have never made the season total wager I did if I knew that trade had any possibility of happening. Oh, well - still went 7-2 on my season total wagers - I'll take it.


Regarding the LAL game, I think the number goes to at least 7. I'm looking to have a decent ML middle going, was able to lay -230 and -240, expect to be able to get back at least +250.

 

[ImNext1000]

hey ax good call

i got -6 LAL and 194

i thought the line was going to be -11 or something like that

 

[grindstone]

Here are the early public #'s

LAL/Hou

Spread
LAL 69%
Hou 31%

Total
62% Over
38% Under


Bost/Orl

Spread
Orl 58%
Bost 42%

Total
77% Over
23% Under

Hey AX this Laker game should be easy here for the Lakers, but what worries me is that the Lakers might think its going to be an easy game and might take the Rockets for granted. I find whenever a team loses a big player other players step up and find ways to win. This might be the situation here for Houston.This is a do or die game for Hou, therefore Hou might put in one hell of an effort. Public will probably be all over the LAL.

Congrats on the Perfect Saturday Sir

 

[sharktank]

Like Magic and Rockets if # gets to 8 If not ?? All the math has left the building, to many variables make your head spin. Does anyone have a clue to what gameplan the Rockets will go with? Magic shot to well at home scares me. Is Perkins suspended?

 

[PickNPop]

Like Magic and Rockets if # gets to 8 If not ?? All the math has left the building, to many variables make your head spin. Does anyone have a clue to what gameplan the Rockets will go with? Magic shot to well at home scares me. Is Perkins suspended?

The NBA has confirmed through their faulty and inconsistent logic that Perk will play in Game 4.

Historically, Houston has been even more stellar defensively without Yao in the lineup as Landry and Hayes are much quicker players and quite physical as well. In fact, Yao often gets substituted out during crunch time for defensive purposes.

The main question of course is how the hell will Houston score enough without Yao in the lineup? Barring Brooks putting up 30+ against the aging Fisher, they will struggle to score. There's also the worry that Artest will shoot them out of the game.

Contrarily, the Lackadaisicals could show up instead of Lakers and blow another DD 4th Q lead.

One thing that is for sure is that Joey Public is alllll over the Lakers. The line re-opened at 6 after the Yao news and it's been pounded to 6.5 within a matter of hours. Anyone wishing to take LA should do so now.


ETA: Thanks again, ax - you're on fiyahhhhh. :mj06:

 

[sportsfan1205]

Well since the boxing analogy was used earlier today (05/09). The Celts seem to be the stubborn champ who just won't allow himself to be tko'd they get bloodied one round and come back only to get knocked back down and come back for more each time. Tomorrow the magic throw yet another blow that will send the celts back home a little woozy but not out

 

[ari]

SUN is going be interesting. I'm not posting anything yet because I want to know what others are thinking. Are my beloved C's done? Do the numbers in the LAL/HOU give us any value?
I've been thinking value calculations for next season. Yes, I'm already preparing and I strongly recommend keeping good notes for use next year. I am curious if anyone else does value calculations. I use Accu predicted outcomes using their 10,000 sims as the projected % number. Has anyone used public numbers on the ML action to determine their value calcs. The DEN ML for example had a 43.6% win prob but the public action on the ML was about 69%. Calculating at this much higher % will yield a greater value number and a bigger trigger for action. Has anyone done this in the past? Thanks fellas.

Ax - great calls last night - my wallet appreciates it. I don't do projections - not good enough of a capper yet. Here is my take on the action today..

Lakers = under. I think the Lakers let their guard down a little even though Phil will stay on them verbally, physically, and mentally to not do so. Even if this does not happen - the other likely possibility is a blow out by the Lakeshow (which I don't think will happen) - and then they slow it down.. Either way the Under looks good here to me. No side play on the Laker game for me at this time.

Boston - Over. I think these two duke it out today. They let it all hang out and leave it all on the court and it sails over. If I had to chose a side - it would be Orlando to finish it out - Your Cs are just out matched.

Thanks as always for your analyses.

 

[TeeMo]

NICE GOING AX. AS A LONG TME AND SOMEWHAT SUCCESSFUL HANDICAPPER, I ALWAYS ENJOY READING YOUR POSTS AND INSIGHT. THERE IS ALOT OF VALUE IN WHAT YOU HAVE TO SAY AND I APPRECIATE IT. THANKS AND KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK.

FYI......LAKER LINE IS UP TO 7.5 :scared

 

[PickNPop]

Lakers line up to 7.5. Ridiculous...

Do you think there is any value left with that number, ax?

 

[compita_luigi]

i love the rockets on this spot..disciplinated team at home..no matter yao is out.. i think they can win this game. 7 points? i take them..

 

[Flandroy]

wouldn't underestimate houston here, they have some deepness and may well upset lakers even without yao. i see a value in +7.5 hou definitely. and under.

 

[netMinder]

i love the rockets on this spot..disciplinated team at home..no matter yao is out.. i think they can win this game. 7 points? i take them..

:nono:

 

[ari]

Ax - if you are around I would love to hear your leans before I head out with the kids and wife for the day. Much respect.

 

[Lefty Rosenthal]

I kind of see this as the kind of game where the Rockets fans are cheering loudly with their "We believe" signs or whatever. The Lakers successfully take the crowd out of the game early, keep them out of it for 3.5 quarters, and then go on cruise control with about 8 minutes left, holding on to win by 5 when somebody on the Rockets banks in a meaningless 3 at the buzzer. It reminds me of LAL/UTA game 4, where after the Lakers lost in game 3, they were still favored by 4.5 in game 4. A lot of people on here said that number was begging for UTA money and the Lakers went on to win by 14. I guess what I'm asking is whether or not this number is begging for LAL money. Good luck all

 

[BIGWave]

I agree ari.............the over is the only way I could look at this BOS total.
ORL loves to score - but I think the key has been BOS realizing they have to score score score to win a game.........they can't clamp down on De-Fense as they could with Garnett in the lineup whenever they chose to..............

The totals by BOS:
Game 1 - 19 17 26 28
Game 2 - 26 35 25 26
Game 3 - 18 23 28 27

Scores by half - 95 90 107 99 94 119

So after the 1st half against this new opponent, BOS has figured out how to score on this team. A bit of a hiccup in the 1st quarter in the new arena, but then score score score - with the series getting increasingly physical - ie: foul foul foul = points points points.

JMHO :toast:

I do not think BOS is "done" ax - but then they are the team I loved all the way to the finals last year...............so, kinda a semi-homer?!?!
Can't wait for your thoughts.................missed everything last night again...........gotta get a new job.

 

[ari]

Thanks Wave - appreciate the feedback. Now for Ax - his opinion is what we need:scared

 

[BIGWave]

BOS+10.5 / CLEV-4 at 6 / 5
BOS+190 / CLEV-650 at +234

Hmmm..............