NBA THU 111909 early thoughts - value hunting
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
- Mar 18, 2009
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adlock:
NBA [703] TOTAL o197?-110
(UTAH vrs SAN ANTONIO)
I wonder why this dropped but I like it. I'll rerun value numbers for you guys since I have some time.
Will tail as have no great impressions of any of the contests this evening.
Some points pondered -
Nate McMillen is a stagnant coach; he may have taken this Blazers squad as far as he can - playing conservatively at the tail end of last night's affair versus the Pistons, he w/drew his starters at the beginning of the 4th instead of decisively breaking Detroit's spirit by inching the deficit to approximately 30 - the Pistons are a scrappy bunch and won't quit no matter the hole they're in (demonstrated the last 2 games); they may not pull it out, but they won't lie down and roll over.
Orlando's bench is suspect - despite the starters cruising to a 30 point lead, they allowed an insurgent Thunder team to come back and make it respectable at 14; Oklahoma City still doesn't function fully as a unit when they're down - offensive schemes break down and everything revolves to a no-win situation one-on-one mano-e-mano game w/in a game.
Brittle teams: San Antonio and Utah. Although Utah won by 13, there's no way it should have been a tight game in the 3rd and early 4th at home in SLC where they enjoy the benefit of referee decisions. Despite their best efforts this postseason and going into the luxury tax zone, the Spurs are nowhere close to the elite 2 of the West in the Lakers and Nuggets (1 and 2 respectively).
Am interested to see how a long season wears on Dallas despite their molten start to the season; old legs don't respond as kindly.
Boston looks lackadaisical - especially on defense; granted it was the Warriors last night, but they seemingly have shut out the pleas/overtures of Rivers and Thibodeau. Maybe achieving the championship 2 seasons back has led to an undisclosed sense of complacency although to a man, none of the personnel would admit it.
While not saying SAS and the over is the ONLY way to look at the game, but anyone considering the Jazz or the under might want to check this out
team=Jazz and rest=0 and site=away and season>=2007
Leaning CHI.
Good Luck,
Bart
team=Jazz and rest=0 and site=away and season>=2007
Leaning CHI.
Good Luck,
Bart
getting action
getting action
These are not my picks. Sharing info on what's getting action as of 1145am
1145
side-PHO
total-PHO/NOH U
sorry for the confusion
getting action
These are not my picks. Sharing info on what's getting action as of 1145am
1145
side-PHO
total-PHO/NOH U
sorry for the confusion
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Leans
Leans
Only one lean for me tonight, and I hate to go against Ax, but it's
Pho-N.O OVER
Think there is no reason Suns don't get to 115-120. Can Hornets get enough garbage points to get 100??:shrug:
Thoughts on why you like the Under Ax??
Looking hard at the Under tonight in NFL as well. Thursdays are usually an under night due to the short week, 2 run oreinted offenses will keep the clock running, no R. Brown and both QB's have been taking good care of the ball as of late.:box2:
Leans
Only one lean for me tonight, and I hate to go against Ax, but it's
Pho-N.O OVER
Think there is no reason Suns don't get to 115-120. Can Hornets get enough garbage points to get 100??:shrug:
Thoughts on why you like the Under Ax??
Looking hard at the Under tonight in NFL as well. Thursdays are usually an under night due to the short week, 2 run oreinted offenses will keep the clock running, no R. Brown and both QB's have been taking good care of the ball as of late.:box2:
Agree with 40, good notes to file away ETZ.
My homer opinion. It seems like they can't be bothered with the regular season. Seems like they just want to get to the post season which is over 5 months away. Watch these guys and they will give you value (I mean fading them). The public perception of this team is so whacked and the books are happy to comply. That's all I've got to say about that. I'm not above fading my homer.
My homer opinion. It seems like they can't be bothered with the regular season. Seems like they just want to get to the post season which is over 5 months away. Watch these guys and they will give you value (I mean fading them). The public perception of this team is so whacked and the books are happy to comply. That's all I've got to say about that. I'm not above fading my homer.
Bro, where you getting this from? I don't like the anything in this game. :shrug:
found were the confusion was. Corrected. thanks
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Good Afternoon Gentlemen ...
I locked in on SA / Utah under 198.5 tonight ... it's a tight number for me but it's better then watching Criminal Minds with my wife. Also I'm on 8 with the Survival Pool across the street and still alive with most wins for the month ... so one must make a play or forget-about-it !!! The fact that Ginoble is back tonight gives me confidence that SA will play scrappy defense ... so I "forced" the play.
GOOD LUCK to you all
I locked in on SA / Utah under 198.5 tonight ... it's a tight number for me but it's better then watching Criminal Minds with my wife. Also I'm on 8 with the Survival Pool across the street and still alive with most wins for the month ... so one must make a play or forget-about-it !!! The fact that Ginoble is back tonight gives me confidence that SA will play scrappy defense ... so I "forced" the play.
GOOD LUCK to you all
Not arguing with your other reasoning, but while Thursdays have been an under night this year, definitely not anything beyond that to support this statement the last 2 seasons.
ATS OU SU season
1-1-0 (-1.0) 0-2-0 (-20.0) 2-0-0 (3.50) 2009
5-4-1 (2.5) 7-3-0 (7.2) 6-4-0 (5.80) 2008
5-3-0 (5.4) 5-3-0 (5.1) 5-3-0 (6.50) 2007
Since 2000 o/u on Thursday 23-24
Since 2005 o/u on Thursday 16-15
If anything, Thursday is favorite day in the NFL.
Since 2000, 31-13-2, Home favorite 19-9-2
Since 2005, 25-5-1, Home favorite 17-5-1
I'll leave it as an exercise for the reader, but away favorites have done even better.
- Mar 18, 2009
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Almost as if they've adopted the ethos of the Lakers. It remains to be seen if they will be up for a game in which they want to prove a point like Los Angeles?
Case in point -
Chicago visits Los Angeles tonight; last year during the Bulls hot streak (when Salmons had joined them from Sacramento), the Lakers went into the Midwest and put a beatdown on the young upstarts. This year's darlings so far may be the Kings (especially if they bounce back after losing to the Bulls). Should a Sacramento team that continues to be in the public eye play the Lakers, expect Los Angeles to stop them dead in their tracks.
The season is long and superior teams appear to see if they can tweak and experiment for stretches, toying w/ the team they're playing against b/c they KNOW they can before finally nailing the coffin shut - Denver against Toronto earlier this week another example. Almost cruel giving false hope to also rans, if you will...
update Values noon:
<TABLE style="WIDTH: 244pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=326 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 122pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 5961" span=2 width=163><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 122pt; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17 width=163>Point Spread</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 122pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22 width=163>Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Phoenix Suns -7.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>New Orleans Hornets +7.5</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>New Orleans Hornets +7.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl23 x:num="10.44">$10.44 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Over / Under</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>OVR 216.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>UND 216.5</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>UND 216.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl23 x:num="4.87">$4.87 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Point Spread</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Utah Jazz +5.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl24>San Antonio Spurs -5.5</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=18>San Antonio Spurs -5.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 2pt double; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl25 x:num="-3.84">($3.84)</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=18>Over / Under</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>OVR 197.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>OVR 197.5</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>UND 197.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl23 x:num="14.95">$14.95 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Point Spread</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Chicago Bulls +9</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>Los Angeles Lakers -9</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Los Angeles Lakers -9</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl23 x:num="7.6000000000000085">$7.60 </TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>Over / Under</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl22>Play</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>OVR 193.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: windowtext 0.5pt solid; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl24>UND 193.5</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 13.5pt" height=18><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 13.5pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=18>UND 193.5</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: windowtext 2pt double; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" class=xl25 x:num="-2.06">($2.06)</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Sometimes I amaze myself with how I overlook things.
I forgot that SAS was also on b2b. To put it nicely, they haven't exactly performed very well in this situation either.
team=Spurs and rest=0 and season
team=Spurs and rest=0 and site=home and season
team=Jazz and rest=0 and season
team=Jazz and rest=0 and site=away and season
Makes me want to fade both teams :shrug:
I forgot that SAS was also on b2b. To put it nicely, they haven't exactly performed very well in this situation either.
team=Spurs and rest=0 and season
team=Spurs and rest=0 and site=home and season
team=Jazz and rest=0 and season
team=Jazz and rest=0 and site=away and season
Makes me want to fade both teams :shrug:
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Sometimes I amaze myself with how I overlook things.
I forgot that SAS was also on b2b. To put it nicely, they haven't exactly performed very well in this situation either.
team=Spurs and rest=0 and season
team=Spurs and rest=0 and site=home and season
team=Jazz and rest=0 and season
team=Jazz and rest=0 and site=away and season
Makes me want to fade both teams
sounds to me like nobody's going to want to play defense in this game? Well, I'll hoping :00x11
FWIW
FWIW
I have a small play on the Panthers also but the juice at 3 is difficult to take.:toast:
FWIW
I have a small play on the Panthers also but the juice at 3 is difficult to take.:toast:
Thanks
Thanks
Thanks for the Thur Night Trends, Bart. Always appreciated.
And on another note, how the Hell did Lincecum win the Cy Young over Carpenter??
I'm a Cards fan so I'm biased, maybe Carp and Wainright split votes. Oh well.
Hoping the Suns total drops a little more before I jump on the over.
Sorry for the confusion on that one Ax, didn't realize you were showing where public money was going.:toast:
Thanks
Thanks for the Thur Night Trends, Bart. Always appreciated.
And on another note, how the Hell did Lincecum win the Cy Young over Carpenter??
I'm a Cards fan so I'm biased, maybe Carp and Wainright split votes. Oh well.
Hoping the Suns total drops a little more before I jump on the over.
Sorry for the confusion on that one Ax, didn't realize you were showing where public money was going.:toast:
One (hopefully last) comment on the Spurs vs. Jazz.
While the Spurs record is as bad, they used to be laying more points than they are now.
Comparing the 2 teams since 2007
Jazz away on back end of back-to-back
SU: 6-24 (-5.3)
ATS: 9-21-0 (-3.5) avg line: 1.8
O/U: 21-9-0 (9.1) avg total: 204.5
Spurs at home on back end of back-to-back
SU: 13-1 (7.6)
ATS: 4-10-0 (-1.0) avg line: -8.6
O/U: 7-7-0 (1.6) avg total: 188.6
So the Spurs have won a lot, just haven't covered an average line of 8.6, missing by an average of 1.0 so they've actually won the games by an average of 7.6 points.
The Jazz on the other hand, have lost a lot outright and failed to cover an average line of +1.8 by 3.5 points, meaning they lost the games by an average of 5.3 points.
Not a lot of squeeze room there, but would still favor the Spurs.
Good Luck,
Bart
While the Spurs record is as bad, they used to be laying more points than they are now.
Comparing the 2 teams since 2007
Jazz away on back end of back-to-back
SU: 6-24 (-5.3)
ATS: 9-21-0 (-3.5) avg line: 1.8
O/U: 21-9-0 (9.1) avg total: 204.5
Spurs at home on back end of back-to-back
SU: 13-1 (7.6)
ATS: 4-10-0 (-1.0) avg line: -8.6
O/U: 7-7-0 (1.6) avg total: 188.6
So the Spurs have won a lot, just haven't covered an average line of 8.6, missing by an average of 1.0 so they've actually won the games by an average of 7.6 points.
The Jazz on the other hand, have lost a lot outright and failed to cover an average line of +1.8 by 3.5 points, meaning they lost the games by an average of 5.3 points.
Not a lot of squeeze room there, but would still favor the Spurs.
Good Luck,
Bart
