NBA Thurs 051409 early thoughts - value hunting (Playoffs)
- Thread starter Ools
- Start date
Accuscore:
Sides: 26-34-3
Totals: 39-24-1
Orl by 4.6 and 186.6
Lakers by 5.2 and 194.6
Trend Notes: Dogs of 1.1-2.9 are combined: 44-51-1
Dogs of 3.1-3.9 are 22-20
Unders of 1.1-2.0 are 30-16-1
Unders of 2.1-2.9 are 34-29
Unders of 3.0-3.9 are 28-37-2
Boston is 32-0 when leading a series 3-2, taking the points tonight and following it with ML bet on Saturday if they lose tonight.
Sides: 26-34-3
Totals: 39-24-1
Orl by 4.6 and 186.6
Lakers by 5.2 and 194.6
Trend Notes: Dogs of 1.1-2.9 are combined: 44-51-1
Dogs of 3.1-3.9 are 22-20
Unders of 1.1-2.0 are 30-16-1
Unders of 2.1-2.9 are 34-29
Unders of 3.0-3.9 are 28-37-2
Boston is 32-0 when leading a series 3-2, taking the points tonight and following it with ML bet on Saturday if they lose tonight.
you have to ask yourself if the Celts is a huge sucker's bet. that's a lot of points, maybe for a reason. the public loves the celts and this may be bait for them. I'm leaning magic half and quarter for sure (hit half plays the last three nights). Orlando has won every first quarter andh alf this series after coming off a loss. their backs are against the wall here and they need to answer. if they lose, it will be late in the game. I'm also leaning hard on the Lakers. They don't want to let denver rest too much, and houston shot their load in game 4 - this depleted team cannot hang with a focused lakers team.
Morning Fellas,
I locked in the following last night
Lakers -8.5
Lakers 1H -4.5
for 1 Unit each
I also locked in a parlay of
Lakers -8.5
Boston ML
also 1 unit
I will make a play on Boston with the points as well today and most likely back it all up with a teaser of LAL and BOS. I still have a live parlay with Nuggets from last night just needing Lakers to win by 3.
Here is my reasoning. The Lakers are gonna win another decisive victory tonight. No it wont be the 40 point trashing we saw 2 nights ago but it will be between 12-20. If Vegas didnt think so this line would have been around 4-5.
The Lakers know Denver is waiting for them and want to show the media they are not as soft as proclaimed.
Orlando has A LOT of turmoil right now. Coach Master of Panic does not have control of his locker room if he ever did. This is a young UNTESTED team with no go to guy. They cant go to Howard late in games due to his free throw shooting. We all know who gets the ball for the C's. Either on one of the leagues best driving SF or the best jump shot in the game today who was 2nd in FT's during the season.
7 points is a lot for this game and I will take ALL 7!!!
I think ML has some value as well....
I locked in the following last night
Lakers -8.5
Lakers 1H -4.5
for 1 Unit each
I also locked in a parlay of
Lakers -8.5
Boston ML
also 1 unit
I will make a play on Boston with the points as well today and most likely back it all up with a teaser of LAL and BOS. I still have a live parlay with Nuggets from last night just needing Lakers to win by 3.
Here is my reasoning. The Lakers are gonna win another decisive victory tonight. No it wont be the 40 point trashing we saw 2 nights ago but it will be between 12-20. If Vegas didnt think so this line would have been around 4-5.
The Lakers know Denver is waiting for them and want to show the media they are not as soft as proclaimed.
Orlando has A LOT of turmoil right now. Coach Master of Panic does not have control of his locker room if he ever did. This is a young UNTESTED team with no go to guy. They cant go to Howard late in games due to his free throw shooting. We all know who gets the ball for the C's. Either on one of the leagues best driving SF or the best jump shot in the game today who was 2nd in FT's during the season.
7 points is a lot for this game and I will take ALL 7!!!
I think ML has some value as well....
This C's game will be close when we get down to the end. Either team can squeek this game out but it will be just that squeek. C's can't expect to go 2 7 game series in a row and then meet the Cavs and have a chance. I believe this game lands within 5 either way.
As for the Lakeshow game. I say this, how do you lay your hard earned money on a team just beat by 40. Yes they won the last home game but LAL will come out to win this time since the Nuggs are already resting. GL to us!!!!
AX??????
:topic: If anyone has some input on the All-star race this weekend feel free to stop by my thread in Motor Racing. Thanks! Hope you don't mind I posted this Ools. Just thought since it was a whole other sport U would be ok.
As for the Lakeshow game. I say this, how do you lay your hard earned money on a team just beat by 40. Yes they won the last home game but LAL will come out to win this time since the Nuggs are already resting. GL to us!!!!
AX??????
:topic: If anyone has some input on the All-star race this weekend feel free to stop by my thread in Motor Racing. Thanks! Hope you don't mind I posted this Ools. Just thought since it was a whole other sport U would be ok.
- May 6, 2009
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I really like the Magic 1H -4 (we all know they struggle closing games out).
I think the Lakeshow rolls tonight - keeping it simple - locked in -8.5 full game (large).
I am waiting to lock anything in on the M and Cs game - need some input from a couple of heavy hitters around here!
I think the Lakeshow rolls tonight - keeping it simple - locked in -8.5 full game (large).
I am waiting to lock anything in on the M and Cs game - need some input from a couple of heavy hitters around here!
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can we please leave all the "trap line" talk to those who live on the other side.
VEGAS IS NOT THAT SMART
the Orl line was set by vegas at -6(-104).
the games in Orl have been -5(-110).
does anyone think that line should have opened lower?
"smart money", not vegas, are the ones who have made the line -7(-110).
"smart money" IS smarter than vegas, however, a better term for them is "early money".
BOLTA
VEGAS IS NOT THAT SMART
the Orl line was set by vegas at -6(-104).
the games in Orl have been -5(-110).
does anyone think that line should have opened lower?
"smart money", not vegas, are the ones who have made the line -7(-110).
"smart money" IS smarter than vegas, however, a better term for them is "early money".
BOLTA
- Mar 18, 2009
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I really think the Lakers close out the series tonight. I locked in on the -8 yesterday figuring the line would be more likely to move up rather than down.
Now I'm using the Lakers -500 ML to parlay most of my baseball plays just to get extra value.
All I know is that if the Lakers don't close out the series, about 1/3 - 1/2 of my winnings from the last 3 days are gone.
I don't know what to make of the Magic just yet. Will prob play under 1H like I did the other night.
Now I'm using the Lakers -500 ML to parlay most of my baseball plays just to get extra value.
All I know is that if the Lakers don't close out the series, about 1/3 - 1/2 of my winnings from the last 3 days are gone.
I don't know what to make of the Magic just yet. Will prob play under 1H like I did the other night.
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FINAL CARD
LAL 1h -4.5
2 UNITS
LAL -8.5
1 UNIT
LAL -9 (already up when I was rebuying)
1UNIT
2 TEAM PARLAY:00hour
LAL -8.5
BOS ML
1 UNIT
2 TEAM PARLAY
LAL -9
ORL-7
1/2 UNIT
I put in the small parlay on Orlando as an insurance play against my C's ML parlay. I truly believe the C's close it out but some very strong cappers are on the Magic and with the reverse line movement I figured I would just insure my bet.
ALL OF THIS IS ASSUMING THE LAKERS ROLL TONIGHT...WHICH I BELIEVE THEY DO!!!:00hour :00hour
BOLTA TONIGHT!!!
LAL 1h -4.5
2 UNITS
LAL -8.5
1 UNIT
LAL -9 (already up when I was rebuying)
1UNIT
2 TEAM PARLAY:00hour
LAL -8.5
BOS ML
1 UNIT
2 TEAM PARLAY
LAL -9
ORL-7
1/2 UNIT
I put in the small parlay on Orlando as an insurance play against my C's ML parlay. I truly believe the C's close it out but some very strong cappers are on the Magic and with the reverse line movement I figured I would just insure my bet.
ALL OF THIS IS ASSUMING THE LAKERS ROLL TONIGHT...WHICH I BELIEVE THEY DO!!!:00hour :00hour
BOLTA TONIGHT!!!
joe - i'm right there with you on not knowing what to do with Orl. I know this is crying over spilled milk, but the opportunities we've missed to make $$ on Orl due to Jameer Nelson's injury are painful.
I realize Ax's C's are hurt too, but Nelson impacts the game without inflating the line as much as KG.
With 5:00 left in G5, I was getting set at the window to jump on Orl in G6. Now, though, i look like this guy :moon:
I realize Ax's C's are hurt too, but Nelson impacts the game without inflating the line as much as KG.
With 5:00 left in G5, I was getting set at the window to jump on Orl in G6. Now, though, i look like this guy :moon:
RIGHT THERE WITH YOU...
I woke up betting Orlando in game 3 but switched to Celtics during the day. Orlando blew them out... Then woke up betting the C's game 5 but switched again this time to Orlando thinking I was a winner all game...Then they shit on themselves...:
- Mar 18, 2009
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Love the LA Fakers tonight they will come out to play tonight and then Denv will take care of them.
Also not sure but I like the under in the C's game. Both teams will be careful with there shoots should be a very defensive game and also liking under in the 1st half. Any comments boys???
JBril - why u like over in Laker game?
BTW
I hope Ax got a percentage on new signups for the month of March 2009.
:mj06:
BTW
I hope Ax got a percentage on new signups for the month of March 2009.
:mj06:
Last game was under by 3.5 points and would have only been under tonight's number by 1 point...We will see a repeat performance by the Lakers but i am pretty sure we should see at least a little more scoring by Houston.
- Mar 18, 2009
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No disrespect JB, just hoping for a BIG showing from them tonight and not like on Sunday.
- Mar 18, 2009
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I got screwed on the over in the last laker's game thought the over in the 1H took some of the sting out of it.
Perhaps we should be looking at the LAL team total instead? Just a thought.
