NBA Thursday 03252010 - Early Thoughts & Value Hunting

[Ools]

Early query request:

games 70 through 80 of the season (leave off last 2 as could be meaningless - if you can), both teams over .500 winning %...interested to see if the unders start popping when good teams face-off at end of season. Also run with .600 win % teams face-off. I guess for last 3 or 4 years should suffice.

Orlando/ATL and LAL/SAS games had that flavor.

thanks
Ools

 

[canuckfan77]

Not too much to choose from today.

 

[JBrilman]

Not too much to choose from today.

Sure there is!

K State
Kentucky
Cuse

all of them roll tonight!

 

[canuckfan77]

I meant for the nba, are your cbb plays all straight or a ml parlay?

 

[JBrilman]

I meant for the nba, are your cbb plays all straight or a ml parlay?

Funny you ask!

I have both

 

[canuckfan77]

ok thanks

 

[BillyBatts]

Leans

Leans

Leans right now

Bulls-1.5
Houston-6.5 and over
Mavs +3.5 and over

QUERY HELP PLEASE

Blazers have won both meetings and on the road vs the Mavs, and now at home are only 3 pt faves

plz query all teams who won 1st two meetings and how they did on the 3rd both overall and at home

also , probably hasn't happened much in last couple years, but a team that won previous 2 games on the road in matchup, but are only favored by 4 or less for 3rd game which is at home?
And maybe aslo how Port has done vs teams they beat previous 2 times, and if there are any other teams mavs have lost previous 2 meetings to, how they fared in the 3rd?

One more. Miami 1st game of a b2b. Both on road. Thanks.

 

[T OFF]

TRENDS

TRENDS

MIAMI at CHICAGO, 8:05 PM ET TNT

MIAMI: 38-58 ATS off SU win

CHICAGO: 9-0 Over at home off DD home win LA

CLIPPERS at HOUSTON, 8:35 PM ET


LA CLIPPERS: 2-13 ATS vs. Southwest Division

HOUSTON: 18-8 ATS off double digits loss


DALLAS at PORTLAND, 10:35 PM ET TNT


DALLAS: 0-8 ATS revenging SU loss as favorite of 7+
PORTLAND: 25-9 ATS off road game** (TC) Denotes Time Change

 

[barts185]

One more. Miami 1st game of a b2b. Both on road. Thanks.

One at a time.

Last one first, it's the easiest.

team=Heat and n:rest=0 and A and n:A and season=2009

SU: 4-4 (4.9)
ATS: 5-3-0 (8.6) avg line: 3.7
O/U: 2-6-0 (-1.2) avg total: 192.6

 

[barts185]

plz query all teams who won 1st two meetings and how they did on the 3rd both overall and at home

overall

P:W and PP:W and PP:season=season and season=2009

SU: 97-44 (5.9)
ATS: 81-54-6 (2.6) avg line: -3.4
O/U: 72-66-3 (0.4) avg total: 201.3



If you want multiple years,

P:W and PP:W and PP:season=season and season>=2007

SU: 388-225 (4.4)
ATS: 314-282-17 (0.5) avg line: -4.0
O/U: 299-302-12 (0.1) avg total: 200.3



Third game must be a home game.

H and P:W and PP:W and PP:season=season and season=2009

SU: 53-16 (8.4)
ATS: 41-27-1 (1.9) avg line: -6.6
O/U: 36-33-0 (1.9) avg total: 200.6


since 2007
H and P:W and PP:W and PP:season=season and season>=2007

SU: 218-64 (9.0)
ATS: 149-126-7 (1.0) avg line: -7.9
O/U: 145-137-0 (0.6) avg total: 200.5

 

[barts185]

also , probably hasn't happened much in last couple years, but a team that won previous 2 games on the road in matchup, but are only favored by 4 or less for 3rd game which is at home?

You said favored by 4 or less, presuming that means to not include as dogs. If that's not correct, you can change the line parameter

Only 4 games since 2007

H and P:A and PP:A and P:W and PP:W and PP:season=season and -4<=line<0 and season>=2007

SU: 2-2 (-1.8)
ATS: 2-2-0 (-4.2) avg line: -2.5
O/U: 2-2-0 (-3.0) avg total: 198.2


Since 2000

H and P:A and PP:A and P:W and PP:W and PP:season=season and -4<=line<0 and season>=2000

SU: 7-12 (-3.0)
ATS: 6-13-0 (-5.6) avg line: -2.6
O/U: 10-9-0 (-0.0) avg total: 194.8


over the whole database
H and P:A and PP:A and P:W and PP:W and PP:season=season and -4<=line<0

SU: 11-15 (-2.0)
ATS: 9-17-0 (-4.8) avg line: -2.8
O/U: 12-14-0 (-1.7) avg total: 193.2


ATS OU SU season
1-0-0 (1.0) 0-1-0 (-28.0) 1-0 (4.00) 2009
1-2-0 (-6.0) 2-1-0 (5.3) 1-2 (-3.67) 2007
0-1-0 (-5.0) 0-1-0 (-4.0) 0-1 (-1.00) 2006
1-2-0 (-4.3) 2-1-0 (5.7) 1-2 (-2.00) 2005
1-2-0 (-7.8) 3-0-0 (9.8) 1-2 (-6.00) 2004
1-1-0 (1.0) 1-1-0 (6.0) 1-1 (2.50) 2003
1-2-0 (-5.2) 1-2-0 (-12.7) 1-2 (-2.00) 2002
0-2-0 (-8.5) 0-2-0 (-15.8) 1-1 (-5.50) 2001
0-1-0 (-16.5) 1-0-0 (26.5) 0-1 (-13.00) 2000
0-1-0 (-7.0) 0-1-0 (-6.5) 0-1 (-6.00) 1999
1-1-0 (1.0) 1-1-0 (-3.2) 2-0 (4.50) 1998
1-1-0 (-7.0) 1-1-0 (-4.5) 1-1 (-3.00) 1997
1-1-0 (0.2) 0-2-0 (-10.8) 1-1 (4.00) 1996

 

[barts185]

And maybe aslo how Port has done vs teams they beat previous 2 times

Portland vs. teams they beat previous 2 times, site doesn't matter

team=Trailblazers and P:W and PP:W and PP:season=season and season=2009

SU: 4-1 (12.0)
ATS: 4-0-1 (9.7) avg line: -2.3
O/U: 2-3-0 (-3.5) avg total: 195.1

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
Team: 26.2 23.0 26.8 25.8 101.8
Opp: 21.2 22.0 21.6 25.0 89.8

Field Goals Threes Free Throws Blocks O Rbnds Rbnds Fouls Assists TrnOvrs
Team: 37.0-79.4 (46.9%) 6.2-16.6 (39.0%) 21.6-28.4 (74.8%) 4.6 12.4 43.4 21.0 23.6 8.2
Opp: 34.4-79.4 (43.3%) 4.6-15.0 (30.7%) 16.4-20.4 (80.0%) 3.8 9.2 38.6 23.4 16.2 13.0

Date Team Opp Site Final Rest FG% Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
20091121 POR MIN H 106-78 0&2 50-37 -14 +186' 28 14.0 -2.5 5.8 -8.2 W W U
20100204 POR SAS H 96-93 0&0 51-44 +2 +194 3 5.0 -5.0 0.0 -5.0 W W U
20100227 POR MIN A 110-91 0&0 45-45 -4 +195 19 15.0 6.0 10.5 -4.5 W W O
20100312 POR SAC A 110-94 0&1 51-50 -1' +192' 16 14.5 11.5 13.0 -1.5 W W O
20100321 POR PHO A 87-93 1&1 36-38 +6 +207' -6 0.0 -27.5 -13.8 -13.8 L P U
20100325 POR DAL H 3&1 -3' +192'

 

[barts185]

and if there are any other teams mavs have lost previous 2 meetings to, how they fared in the 3rd?

team=Mavericks and P:L and PP:L and PP:season=season and season=2009

SU: 1-0 (5.0)
ATS: 1-0-0 (3.0) avg line: -2.0
O/U: 1-0-0 (2.0) avg total: 195.0

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Final
Team: 20.0 29.0 25.0 27.0 101.0
Opp: 23.0 27.0 22.0 24.0 96.0

Field Goals Threes Free Throws Blocks O Rbnds Rbnds Fouls Assists TrnOvrs
Team: 35.0-80.0 (43.8%) 8.0-21.0 (38.1%) 23.0-26.0 (88.5%) 6.0 13.0 41.0 20.0 23.0 16.0
Opp: 38.0-78.0 (48.7%) 5.0-17.0 (29.4%) 15.0-16.0 (93.8%) 2.0 7.0 36.0 20.0 19.0 17.0

Date Team Opp Site Final Rest FG% Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr ot
20100224 DAL LAL H 101-96 1&0 43-48 -2 +195 5 3.0 2.0 2.5 -0.5 W W O
20100325 DAL POR A 1&3 +3' +192'

 

[BillyBatts]

Appreciated

Appreciated

Thank you very much Bart! Gonna definetly lay off the Mavs now

anyone like anything?
I'm thinking either Mavs over or the rejuvenated and desperate Bulls

 

[barts185]

Early query request:

games 70 through 80 of the season (leave off last 2 as could be meaningless - if you can), both teams over .500 winning %...interested to see if the unders start popping when good teams face-off at end of season. Also run with .600 win % teams face-off. I guess for last 3 or 4 years should suffice.

Orlando/ATL and LAL/SAS games had that flavor.

thanks
Ools

Ools,

I apologize. I completely missed this.


First, I would argue that there's a lot more games than the last 2 that can be meaningless for teams, but that's not part of a query I can run


both teams above .500 (will not include teams at .500)

since 2007
70<=(wins+losses)<=80 and tA(W)>0.5 and oA(W)>0.5 and season>=2007

SU: 90-88 (0.3)
ATS: 89-84-5 (0.4) avg line: 0.0
O/U: 82-92-4 (-2.5) avg total: 201.5


season by season


70<=(wins+losses)<=80 and tA(W)>0.5 and oA(W)>0.5 and season

ATS OU SU season
5-2-1 (5.2) 3-5-0 (-12.4) 5-3 (5.25) 2009
42-41-0 (0.0) 41-42-0 (-0.9) 41-42 (-0.08) 2008
42-41-4 (0.2) 38-45-4 (-3.0) 44-43 (0.26) 2007
28-28-2 (0.0) 28-30-0 (-3.8) 29-29 (0.00) 2006
32-34-0 (-0.0) 33-33-0 (-1.1) 32-34 (-0.29) 2005
48-47-0 (0.1) 41-54-0 (-0.8) 48-47 (0.07) 2004
37-38-0 (-0.2) 34-41-0 (-2.2) 37-38 (-0.28) 2003
50-50-0 (-0.0) 38-62-0 (-2.6) 50-50 (-0.03) 2002
42-43-0 (0.1) 39-46-0 (-1.0) 42-43 (-0.09) 2001
59-62-0 (-0.3) 55-66-0 (-0.5) 61-60 (-0.26) 2000
50-51-2 (-0.0) 32-71-0 (-3.9) 52-51 (-0.09) 1999
47-46-6 (0.1) 48-51-0 (0.7) 50-49 (0.15) 1997
30-30-2 (0.1) 28-34-0 (0.0) 31-31 (-0.10) 1996
46-44-2 (0.2) 40-48-4 (1.2) 47-45 (0.32) 1995



both teams above .600

70<=(wins+losses)<=80 and tA(W)>0.6 and oA(W)>0.6 and season>=2007

since 2007

SU: 51-47 (0.3)
ATS: 49-45-4 (0.4) avg line: 0.1
O/U: 46-50-2 (-3.4) avg total: 201.8


season by season

70<=(wins+losses)<=80 and tA(W)>0.6 and oA(W)>0.6 and season

ATS OU SU season
4-2-0 (3.2) 3-3-0 (-9.7) 4-2 (3.67) 2009
16-15-0 (0.3) 10-21-0 (-2.8) 16-15 (0.13) 1999
21-20-0 (0.4) 20-21-0 (-0.3) 21-20 (0.05) 2008
21-22-0 (-0.8) 18-25-0 (-1.0) 21-22 (-0.91) 2000
24-23-4 (0.0) 23-26-2 (-5.1) 26-25 (0.08) 2007
6-7-0 (-0.1) 5-8-0 (-5.9) 6-7 (-0.54) 2005
9-8-0 (0.7) 8-9-0 (-2.6) 9-8 (0.41) 2002
14-13-2 (0.4) 14-15-0 (-4.2) 15-14 (0.52) 1997
15-15-2 (0.0) 16-16-0 (2.2) 16-16 (0.00) 1996
14-14-0 (0.0) 10-18-0 (-6.3) 14-14 (0.00) 2003
12-12-0 (0.0) 10-14-0 (-5.7) 12-12 (0.00) 2001
9-9-0 (0.0) 2-16-0 (-16.6) 9-9 (0.00) 2004
8-8-2 (0.0) 6-12-0 (-6.7) 9-9 (0.00) 1995
8-8-0 (0.0) 10-6-0 (1.4) 8-8 (0.00) 2006

 

[barts185]

A couple of points about those queries I just ran for ools.


1) It will count when either team is between 70 and 80 games. Let me know if you want both teams to have to be between 70 and 80.


2) It's double counting games.


I'm going to redo them.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

22 - 27 kurby
2 - 0 yesterday :scared:00hour

Today

Mavs @ Blazers O192 (POD)

BOLTA :0corn
Joe

 

[barts185]

Both teams between game 70 and 80, using the home parameter to eliminate duplicates.




both above .500


It would seem that in recent years, home teams have a decent edge in these games.


since 2007

70<=(wins+losses)<=80 and 70<=(o:wins+o:losses)<=80 and H and tA(W)>0.5 and oA(W)>0.5 and season>=2007

SU: 63-20 (8.3)
ATS: 50-31-2 (4.0) avg line: -4.2
O/U: 39-42-2 (-2.4) avg total: 201.4


ATS OU SU season
2-0-0 (5.2) 1-1-0 (-10.8) 2-0 (8.00) 2009
25-14-0 (4.2) 20-19-0 (-1.1) 29-10 (7.77) 2008
23-17-2 (3.9) 18-22-2 (-3.3) 32-10 (8.71) 2007
8-20-1 (-3.2) 14-15-0 (-3.8) 17-12 (-0.28) 2006
15-16-0 (-0.2) 16-15-0 (-0.7) 20-11 (4.58) 2005
27-19-0 (1.9) 19-27-0 (-1.1) 29-17 (5.72) 2004
23-14-0 (2.1) 17-20-0 (-2.0) 29-8 (7.03) 2003
27-21-0 (-0.2) 18-30-0 (-2.9) 27-21 (2.73) 2002
18-22-0 (-1.4) 18-22-0 (-1.2) 23-17 (2.08) 2001
30-26-0 (0.1) 25-31-0 (-0.4) 35-21 (4.21) 2000
23-26-1 (-0.2) 16-34-0 (-3.7) 30-20 (3.86) 1999
23-23-3 (0.2) 24-25-0 (0.9) 34-15 (4.61) 1997
14-15-1 (0.1) 14-16-0 (0.5) 17-13 (3.63) 1996
20-24-1 (-1.3) 20-23-2 (1.5) 29-16 (2.89) 1995



both teams above .600

again, home teams in recent years seem to have a nice edge.


70<=(wins+losses)<=80 and 70<=(o:wins+o:losses)<=80 and H and tA(W)>0.6 and oA(W)>0.6 and season>=2007

SU: 37-9 (9.3)
ATS: 30-14-2 (4.6) avg line: -4.7
O/U: 22-23-1 (-3.3) avg total: 201.9


ATS OU SU season
2-0-0 (5.2) 1-1-0 (-10.8) 2-0 (8.00) 2009
15-4-0 (5.9) 10-9-0 (0.2) 16-3 (10.05) 2008
13-10-2 (3.6) 11-13-1 (-5.4) 19-6 (8.88) 2007
4-4-0 (-2.9) 5-3-0 (1.4) 5-3 (0.00) 2006
4-2-0 (1.4) 2-4-0 (-7.2) 4-2 (6.00) 2005
5-4-0 (6.1) 1-8-0 (-16.6) 6-3 (10.11) 2004
11-3-0 (3.9) 5-9-0 (-6.3) 12-2 (9.36) 2003
4-4-0 (-1.3) 4-4-0 (-2.7) 5-3 (-0.12) 2002
6-6-0 (-2.2) 5-7-0 (-5.7) 9-3 (1.92) 2001
9-11-0 (-1.9) 8-12-0 (-1.1) 12-8 (2.75) 2000
6-9-0 (-0.8) 5-10-0 (-2.7) 8-7 (3.07) 1999
5-8-1 (-4.2) 7-7-0 (-3.6) 7-7 (-0.21) 1997
8-7-1 (3.9) 8-8-0 (2.2) 10-6 (7.31) 1996
1-7-1 (-6.0) 3-6-0 (-6.7) 4-5 (-0.78) 1995



Actually, if you remove the .600 and above, the .500 and above isn't anything special, so really it's the .600 and above that seems good in recent years.

 

[Lumi]

bulls/rockets,

clippers suck !

 

[BillyBatts]

Locked and loaded

Locked and loaded

3-1 last night, hitting my POD. That's "in the black " 3 outta last 4 nights.

Locked in

Mavs over 192 POD (stay hot JV)

Bulls -1.5

Best of luck fellas, let's kill the books!!

PS-illuminati- GREAT writeup on the Rockets-Clips game:142smilie

I think you have a winner there :mj06: