NBA TUE 032409 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[JBrilman]

I think you 2 will like this

DET
# Over is 5-0 in Pistons last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
# Over is 5-0 in Pistons last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
# Over is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 overall.
# Over is 4-0 in Pistons last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
# Over is 8-1 in Pistons last 9 games playing on 1 days rest.
# Over is 6-1 in Pistons last 7 vs. a team with a losing S.U. record.
# Over is 6-1 in Pistons last 7 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
# Over is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 Tuesday games.
# Over is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 games following a ATS loss.
# Over is 4-1 in Pistons last 5 road games.

CHI
# Over is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 Tuesday games.
# Over is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games following a S.U. win.
# Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.

H2H
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

After capping this game I have it around 200 I am gonna play the NOT UNDER on this one...

 

[JBrilman]

Lakers number seems low...but then I see all the money is on the over and the number is dropping like George W's approval rating in 08!!!

L.A. Lakers 205 Ok City

OVER 606 73.37%
UNDER 220 26.63%


anyone else think this reverse line movement warrants some discussion?

 

[axp59]

After capping this game I have it around 200 I am gonna play the NOT UNDER on this one...

seems to have some value eh Jus???

 

[Ace_Ace]

Both Det & Utah games are on TNT today

TV games are dodgy.

Anyone got a stat on TNT tuesday games for this year.

I am trying to search but can't find anything on it.

 

[mpnyc76]

i would love to see some research on home and home games. my philosophy has always been to take the losing team that plays at home on the second night like the the knicks last night - from what I have seen, very rarely does that team lose the game. maybe i will crunch the numbers.

 

[barts185]

My thoughts on the CHI/DET game.

Even with injuries, DET has been playing well. They took HOU to double OT in Houston.

Even though CHI is behind in the standings, DET has a harder road to make the playoffs. CHI only has to play 2 teams that are currently above .500 the rest of the season, and has them both at home.


However, CHI has done well in b2b (12-8), and even better in b2b when coming home off a road game (8-2).

team=Bulls and season=2008 and rest =0

team=Bulls and season=2008 and rest =0 and site=home and p:site=away


I would still say I have a strong lean to DET.



Ax,

I saw that you asked people to PM you. I'm very new, so can't PM you, I tried adding you as a friend, but I guess you need to do something to accept.


Good Luck,
Bart

 

[JBrilman]

seems to have some value eh Jus???

Yeah after watching the Bulls last night they were a little out of sync and still scored 200. Dont see Detriot being much better on Defense if not a little worse. CHI seems to score the ball well against DET and with SHEED out I see that as a + for CHI who at home could put up 110 easy.

after posting about Lakers I stumbled on 1Hit page and he had the Under as well...Already down 2 points so my guess is value there may be gone...BUT this number has me scratching my head
:shrug: :shrug:

 

[granpa]

NIT Penn St/Florida

NIT Penn St/Florida

Really like the over in this NIT game tonight (Currently 136.5). Have to believe Florida will run against Penn just as RI did. Not to mention over is 7-2 in Fla against Big 10 teams.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

team=Bulls and season=2008 and rest =0

team=Bulls and season=2008 and rest =0 and site=home and p:site=away

Hi Bart,

plz explain with I can do with this "codes" ?

I am also leaning on DET but only play the over

BOL :mj06:
Joe

 

[axp59]

Ax,

I saw that you asked people to PM you. I'm very new, so can't PM you, I tried adding you as a friend, but I guess you need to do something to accept.

Funny but leaning on DET myself but only played the O so far.

I've accepted that bro..GL

 

[axp59]

My thoughts on the CHI/DET game.

Barts,
You may be interested in running the query I posted about on pg. 1 post #7

 

[granpa]

Chi/Det O/U

Chi/Det O/U

Last 5 home games Bulls have averaged 112 ppg. This includes a 97 pt performance against the NOH and 127 against the C's. If they can put up 127 against the C's D, why not at least that against Det? If the Bulls muster 105-110 pts, surely Det can put up 85+ against a team giving up 104 ppg at home their L5. Last time out Gordon, Rose & Thomas lit them up for 22, 23 & 24 pts respectively at home. Have to believe they'll do it again. IMHO.

GL, G :0corn

 

[pkkingster15]

Televised TNT Games

Televised TNT Games

TNT games on national television....

There have only been two nights of games played on TNT not on Thursday, and that was opening night, October 28th, when both games went under. Then, on January 19th, a Monday, three games were on TNT, and all went under.

As for total numbers, they look like this:

Monday (O-U) : 0-3
Tuesday (O-U) : 0-2
Thursday (O-U) : 18-20

TNT games (total) : 18-25 ; 58.1% UNDER

 

[axp59]

plz explain with I can do with this "codes" ?

Joe copy and paste these

edit pay service sites:admin

etc...

 

[Ace_Ace]

TNT games on national television....

There have only been two nights of games played on TNT not on Thursday, and that was opening night, October 28th, when both games went under. Then, on January 19th, a Monday, three games were on TNT, and all went under.

As for total numbers, they look like this:

Monday (O-U) : 0-3
Tuesday (O-U) : 0-2
Thursday (O-U) : 18-20

TNT games (total) : 18-25 ; 58.1% UNDER

Thanks PKK

I couldn't find this stat. How did the underdogs performed in those games ?

 

[barts185]

Hi Bart,

plz explain with I can do with this "codes" ?

I am also leaning on DET but only play the over

BOL :mj06:
Joe

I thought others here had mentioned this site, and wasn't sure what the rules were about posting sites. Hoping it's okay since there is a free option on the site to run queries.

please no links to pay service sites:admin

you then enter that code into the query box and can get results.

I've only recently started using it, but it seems pretty powerful.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

THX for the answer

 

[JBrilman]

Lakers OVER money must be coming in a bit as line seems to be moving back up overseas...

might have to take the UNDER at 205.5!

 

[easterntimezone]

I'm a Pistons homer and I haven't bet on them for a good while and actually went against them more often than not. Did so in the Heat game and given Heats performance they (Pistons) should have blown them off the court and shut the door by the half time.
I absolutley hate how we're playing this season, I like the players but it seems like the mix is too polar and its not working properly. We have old veterans in Sheed, Rip, McDyess, AI (ew why get him) and Prince, and then a bunch of young guns in Stuckey, Afflalo, Amir...only Bynum is in between age wise and I think that's one big issue affecting the play. When the veterans are playing it's a different kind of game and mindset compared to the young guys, and what's missig are proper people. I would like to have, ie Rip to lead, Prince, some young tough center like Gasol #2 or Nene, Stuckey and one 26+ yr old SF or PF...with young talents off bench and Bynum + McDyess to keep them tight and not let them lose leads.
The way things are going now, feels like there is no spirit, no glow, nothing that will get them up a notch when it's needed (basically what I'm saying is that Sheed got too old). They can blow up at any time on the floor.

Don't like to lay many points with Bulls, but they seem like far better and much stronger team now and it's breaking my heart.

I personally, will probably lay off this game, but if I had to bet something, I'd be taking Bulls in a heartbeat and feeling good about it.

Make me believe, fuckers!

I backed the Pistons against the Rockets last week as well as versus the Mavs; they covered on both counts - went against them when they played Memphis b/c of situational circumstance: passing of Bill Davidson.

Team doesn't really listen to Curry from what I can see - they just play for the most part as they've been conditioned to since Brown left - there is some slippage b/c Brown isn't there to indoctrinate them day in, day out, but there's a familiar zone that they're in... Would agree w/ you that the mix isn't right and as I wrote last time out w/ the Spurs, that it's so much more difficult to reload (winging it essentially) instead of rebuilding. Stuckey looks like he'll come into his own - don't forget Billups enjoyed a very checkered career until finding a home in Detroit. I am not enamored w/ their bigs in Maxiell and Johnson - too limited offensively and overly reliant on their physical skills to mask basketball awareness/IQ.

Kudos to you for running w/ the Nevilles when they were a lot funkier as the Meters in a NOLA style than the adult contemporary version that the general public knows.

A final note on last night's Minnesota/Atlanta game -
Been pondering it and trying to figure out what outlier was likely culprit for the over...

Here's what I've come up w/ and it may or may not be a reasonable conclusion:

Last night's game wasn't about an O/U - the game effectively was distilled into a player proposition concerning points and involving Flip Murray.

For argument's sake, let's say that the O/U for Murray's scoring in that game and most this season is 20 - how many times would you favor going on the O given that his season average is 11.9?

 

[axp59]

A final note on last night's Minnesota/Atlanta game -
Been pondering it and trying to figure out what outlier was likely culprit for the over...

Here's what I've come up w/ and it may or may not be a reasonable conclusion:

Last night's game wasn't about an O/U - the game effectively was distilled into a player proposition concerning points and involving Flip Murray.

For argument's sake, let's say that the O/U for Murray's scoring in that game and most this season is 20 - how many times would you favor going on the O given that his season average is 11.9?

in so many words, it was the right ticket!