NBA TUE 033109 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
- Mar 18, 2009
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Ah sorry I didn't see that you wrote about the game New Orleans above.
Are there any stats how many points Detroit scores & allows with/without Iverson?
Are there any stats how many points Detroit scores & allows with/without Iverson?
got a big fat moose
Getting sick of these damn mooses and I'm :mj12: that I'm :flush: my money down the drain.
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those emoticons are cute !! :grouphug:
On topic: the NBA is a cruel, cruel mistress.
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ATL/PHI pre-cap notes @193
simple H/A trending
ATL O/U 17-18 road
PHI O/U 14-22 home
lean Under- PHI weighted to dictate play at home
Initial Statistical analysis
Regression modeling- both teams play as expected on any court
projected range 189-190
outlier 181 projection dicarded
lean under
Weighted geometric mean- H/A stats weighted with home team dictating
projected range 189-190
outlier 186 considered
lean under
exponential smoothing - what have you done lately
projected range 188-191
lean under
ALL 12 minor signals and two major signals - Under play
These are my pre-cap notes. I do the detailed capping the next day. If it looks good, I let it ride. If not, I buy it back and eat the juice. Why buy overnight? Don't want to miss the bargain. If this drops, the value is gone.
hey there stranger. I do like this play a lot. Good to see you ETZ although I believe this may be your shortest post EVER. :SIB
Welcome back sir. I'm looking forward to some in-depth game analysis. I'm just a numbers guy that gets lucky once in a while.
Oh god I hope your numbers are closer than mine. Two playoff bound teams with something to play for...I say defense decides this one.
You can filter that with SDQL I believe although I had a real hard time the other day when trying to look for numbers with KG out for Boston.
- Mar 18, 2009
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Agreed! I don't know who this imposter is? The real etz would've posted something so long that I would have to scroll down the page to read it all!
I'm with you there brother. The way that one ended was unacceptable. Had they score 250, that I can live with. I know I missed. Holding the right ticket and losing...:gf: Golden State.
- Mar 17, 2009
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Ax whats up bro?! omg that gsw game was ridiculous....what can u say? jungle ball at its finest. fundamentals out the window...lets get em back on tues bro!I second, third and home plate that motion!
- Mar 17, 2009
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dont know if u all have seen the area on killersports> NBA> "NBA trends page" but has intersting trends at times. some go back a bit too far IMO, etc but its worth chekin out....>> for today>>
t:team=Warriors and site=home and tP:ats margin<=-10 and tP:season=season and 20070326<=date
AND
t:team=Mavericks and 0<rest and p:season=season and tp:margin<0 and tp:season=season and Average(100.*tp:assists/tp:field goals made@tp:team and tp:season)+10<=100.*tp:assists/tp:field goals made and 20000104<=date
t:team=Warriors and site=home and tP:ats margin<=-10 and tP:season=season and 20070326<=date
AND
t:team=Mavericks and 0<rest and p:season=season and tp:margin<0 and tp:season=season and Average(100.*tp:assists/tp:field goals made@tp:team and tp:season)+10<=100.*tp:assists/tp:field goals made and 20000104<=date
