NBA TUE 033109 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[VegasAce21]

oo

 

[axp59]

yeah first one is post#1

2nd doesn't work bro

 

[Crockie]

Ax let us spy the games Detroit/Cleveland & Sacramento/New Orleans. Over 90% are on the over and the line goes down... If this stays Tuesday afternoon I'll take the under on both.

 

[barts185]

You can filter that with SDQL I believe although I had a real hard time the other day when trying to look for numbers with KG out for Boston.

I have a feeling that the player data is not very accurate for tracking when someone is out.

Pistons:Allen Iverson:minutes>0
SU: 24-28 (-1.9)
ATS: 20-32-0 (-3.7) avg line: -1.9
O/U: 18-32-2 (-2.3) avg total: 188.4

He has played in 52 games, so that seems okay.

BUT

Pistons:Allen Iverson:minutes=0

returns no results

 

[Joe_Vienna]

man this is strange! the trends I found yesterday don't work today :scared (copy&paste)

I will post it, maybe it works later again
But I also copied the O/U-stats

LAL@CHA

'League'='League' and site=away and rest<2 and tp:margin<0 and tp:season=season and tp:site=away and 10<=po:three pointers attempted and 50<=po:three pointer percentage and po:season=season and 20090121<=date
O/U: 20-5

'League'='League' and site=away and tP:margin<0 and 100.*tP:assists/tP:field goals made<50 and tP:season=season and tP:line<0 and tP:season=season and 20080227<=date
O/U: 34-14

'League'='League' and site=away and rest<2 and tp:site=away and tp:season=season and 10<=po:three pointers attempted and 50<=po:three pointer percentage and po:season=season and 20090121<=date
O/U: 21-6

'League'='League' and site=away and rest<2 and tp:margin<=-10 and tp:season=season and 10<=po:three pointers attempted and 50<=po:three pointer percentage and po:season=season and 20090121<=date
O/U: 16-4

team=Lakers and o:streak>=+2 and 20031030<=date and season=2008


What do you think?

 

[Flippa2HeadCoin]

Good morning Ax.

Good morning Ax.

omard07 is giving you a shout-out from across the street.

 

[clkclass]

confused:

got a big fat moose

WTF I just saw the final score (62) points in the last quarter!!!!!!!!!!!! SORRY AX

 

[Joe_Vienna]

confused:

WTF I just saw the final score (62) points in the last quarter!!!!!!!!!!!! SORRY AX

19 pts in the last minute!!

 

[clkclass]

I was following the game on my PC and i saw there was about 20 sec left and 10 points needed for NOT the under. thats when i sent AX a congrats... WOW

 

[proguy747]

clkclass you avatar is funny every single perso is starring at that girls ass. must be great, who is she?

 

[jim844]

this is what i found on the atl/phi game that made me wonder if the under is best play

Over is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5.
Over is 4-0 in Hawks last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 games as a road underdog.
Over is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 overall.
Over is 4-1 in Hawks last 5 road games.

Over is 5-0-1 in 76ers last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Over is 4-0 in 76ers last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 6-1 in 76ers last 7 overall.
Over is 5-1 in 76ers last 6 vs. Eastern Conference.
Over is 4-1 in 76ers last 5 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 4-1 in 76ers last 5 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
Over is 16-5-2 in 76ers last 23 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 9-3 in 76ers last 12 Tuesday games.
Over is 8-3-1 in 76ers last 12 games as a favorite.
Over is 5-2-1 in 76ers last 8 vs. NBA Southeast.

now granted there are a few stats that point to the under, there was only like 3 compared to these
Under is 9-4 in Hawks last 13 games following a ATS win
Under is 7-2-1 in 76ers last 10 games as a home favorite of 0.5-4.5.
Under is 13-5-1 in 76ers last 19 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Under is 41-19-2 in 76ers last 62 games as a home favorite.

now i don't rely simply on these stats that are available to the public but this seemed like an overwhelming trend towards the over

i know phi plays some defense and especially at home they'll look to dictate the flow
both teams generally don't hit above 100 pts per game so that's a good sign
i just don't see how this is an easy obvious under
the way people are suggesting
i guess i need some convincing

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Do a matchup comparation, Hawks ball-handling vs 76ers turnover-producing-D vs Hawks transition D vs pace both teams have vs point production away/home for both teams and you'll know the story for o/u ez cakes

 

[jim844]

i'm more a situational capper
i don't really hash numbers and such but i'm just a guy who watches all the games every night regardless of if i bet on them or not and i like to think i've developed a bit of insight from that
of course i do look at numbers when i make a final decision but it's more based on what's goin on around the league with teams/players etc as opposed to just numbers
i'm not sayin the game is goin over
i'm just on the fence and wanted to see what made everyone jump to the under like it was the best shit that hasn't been stepped on
anyone?

 

[Crockie]

all lines are out!

 

[ImNext1000]

CHI vs IND 216..that thing is going over

im gonna parlay atl under and chi over

i might buy the points aswell i dotn wanna go thru what happened last night again :mj07:

:mj06: :mj06: :mj06:

 

[kellyindallas]

Port/Utah 194?? Seems pretty high for 2 teams that can play some defense? Utah on B2B though.

Utah's rep is that they play defense under Sloan; however, this hasn't been true the last couple of years.

Their defense has been quite porous and they actually look to run, when they get the chance. This is not the same Utah team of the last 15 years.

 

[axp59]

Ax let us spy the games Detroit/Cleveland & Sacramento/New Orleans. Over 90% are on the over and the line goes down... If this stays Tuesday afternoon I'll take the under on both.

Crockie, this may be the 2nd best under option on the board today. This DET team is very hard to read at times though.

 

[Crockie]

Nice to hear that Ax. I'm on it all the way. I think Detroit will cover the spread also :0corn

 

[axp59]

man this is strange! the trends I found yesterday don't work today :scared (copy&paste)

I will post it, maybe it works later again
But I also copied the O/U-stats

LAL@CHA

What do you think?

I tried to run these and only the last one worked. anyone have any luck with these queries?

 

[axp59]

omard07 is giving you a shout-out from across the street.

Thanks for the heads up Flippa. Will go check it out...