NBA TUE 102709 early thoughts - value hunting

axp59

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It looks like 186.5 is getting some action on the under. I'm going to shop around, re-run some scenarios with all the numbers on the board. I hope there's still a play out there for me.

Good to see a lot of old friends here :)
 

axp59

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BM just dropped this number to 184.5

I was getting ready to say it still had a little value left even @ 185

some entity is dropping some cash on this :)

that LAC/LAL 205 is winking at me. I'm just worried LAC won't live up to their end to bump this one over.
 

softballmaniac

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BM just dropped this number to 184.5

I was getting ready to say it still had a little value left even @ 185

some entity is dropping some cash on this :)

that LAC/LAL 205 is winking at me. I'm just worried LAC won't live up to their end to bump this one over.

Hey Ax, i had 186 at 11:00 am ECT and dropped to 184. LAL at 205 now. How's that room treating you pal? Good to have you back. :0corn
 

axp59

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Hey Ax, i had 186 at 11:00 am ECT and dropped to 184. LAL at 205 now. How's that room treating you pal? Good to have you back. :0corn

Love the room pal. I love my little camper better which I bought so I could travel this summer.

I'm so out of my game right now LOL. It's like these numbers are moving too fast for me. I guess we all need to get our legs back.
 

t-mook

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Great to see you AXP

Great to see you AXP

awesome to see you back AXP looking forward to another great season. BOL :D
 

axp59

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I had 185 on my side Ax, is it the right time to pull the trigger?

Bro, it's your call. I'm not sure if this will head north again. There's a pinch of value left but you know I like at least a 3 possession cushion. If you miss out on this, there will be more to come buddy.
 

Eagle123

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Bro, it's your call. I'm not sure if this will head north again. There's a pinch of value left but you know I like at least a 3 possession cushion. If you miss out on this, there will be more to come buddy.

As you know, is late night down here and get to sleep soon. Try wake up early and see what your final decision.;)
 

40seven

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Sleep in Vegas...no way but!

Sleep in Vegas...no way but!

It is hard to believe it is day one and we have seen this type of movement. Down Up and back Down.

The books are going crazy with Football...they will often give a few early Basketball numbers.

I like Dallas, not under and
Boston Under even at 185 you have a few to spare....

185 is both teams in the 90's. I had the game at 177, but remember i suck at this and lose to much money with my own plays....
 

axp59

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Just saw this on the bottom of the page:

"US CITIZENS PLEASE NOTE: The information contained in this site is for news and entertainment purposes only.
Any use of this information in violation of any federal, state, or local law(s) is prohibited."

Eagle, you're free to gamble away. The rest of us will have to be content with talking about the games. LOL

Back to work- I re-ran some numbers and I'm still on those two totals. I'm not going to over-think this. There's no real money involved for opening night. There's a guy across the street unloading his entire bankroll on the LAL ML. I'm taking action on the over/under when he goes broke. Before/After Thanksgiving? God pray for those fools.
 

axp59

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It is hard to believe it is day one and we have seen this type of movement. Down Up and back Down.

The books are going crazy with Football...they will often give a few early Basketball numbers.

I like Dallas, not under and
Boston Under even at 185 you have a few to spare....

185 is both teams in the 90's. I had the game at 177, but remember i suck at this and lose to much money with my own plays....

Seriously, I need my sea legs quick. I feel like I'm getting lost in the shuffle.

I'm showing some signals to support your WAS/DAL action. It's not compelling enough for me to jump on but thought I'd let you know there's some trending that backs up that play.

Let's just say 90-86 on that BOS/CLE game. It's reasonable and UNDER. Funny thing is I'm probably not going to see this game. Got a conf call with some gents in MN and FL.
 

Eagle123

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one thing would like to ask you ax, it is about how to manage the wager.

I have not much idea on this.

I always heard that is 1 unit or half unit play. what exactly unit mean in term of $
 

Mindframe913

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Welcome back bud! gl this year!


....missed ya on the wba play of the day in mlb....


hope ya had a good summer!
 

axp59

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one thing would like to ask you ax, it is about how to manage the wager.

I have not much idea on this.

I always heard that is 1 unit or half unit play. what exactly unit mean in term of $

A good rule of thumb is 4% of your bankroll as a unit assuming you only play 1 unit a day. Stick to this dollar amount for a month or so and then re-evaluate. I know you like action so I would break up your wager so that you bet no more than a certain % of your bankroll per day. Let's say you bet 3 games. Maybe 2% each would be good.

Bro, I can't emphasize enough the importance of money management. As a friend, I would tell you to STOP betting until you have a money management strategy in place. Picking games is the easy part. Managing your flow is the hard work.
 

axp59

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Welcome back bud! gl this year!


....missed ya on the wba play of the day in mlb....


hope ya had a good summer!

Had a great summer brother. I'm sorry I just didn't have the time to participate. I ended up in the black but certainly nothing to brag about. I checked out a new RL strategy this summer and might go with it for the full season next year. Hope you were profitable my friend.
 

40seven

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I did it

I did it

One Jackson on the BC CC Under, i may double it later, along with one unit on WW DM.

As for the LA over it seems that number is coming down, I do not want to over think day one BUT if the Clippers do not show and score 85 then the Lakers need to score 120...?

The play may be the Clippers Under 98.
 

Eagle123

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A good rule of thumb is 4% of your bankroll as a unit assuming you only play 1 unit a day. Stick to this dollar amount for a month or so and then re-evaluate. I know you like action so I would break up your wager so that you bet no more than a certain % of your bankroll per day. Let's say you bet 3 games. Maybe 2% each would be good.

Bro, I can't emphasize enough the importance of money management. As a friend, I would tell you to STOP betting until you have a money management strategy in place. Picking games is the easy part. Managing your flow is the hard work.

So is that mean if I put $10,000 to start, $400 for one game, if lost $384 on next game if win $416 on next game

Is that how it works?
 
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