NBA Tues 121509 early thoughts - value hunting

[easterntimezone]

Not liking SAS in this spot?

They're actually in a scenario that favors them, methinks Ax - numbers thus far seem to be either evenly split or heavily in favor of the Suns.

Also like the Knicks possibility - playing as a team more than they did at the beginning of the season; although they still realize that most of 'em are dead weight after this season, trying to pad individual stats likely hasn't curried them much favor among prospective suitors so guess they've bought into trying to generate some wins and look good while doing so...

 

[axp59]

not even impressed anymore. you're the best NBA capper i know but you can't call an NFL game to save your life. hahahahaha won't be able to hook up with you when your home for xmas and new year. i'm out of town. it sucks. you gonna bet during your vacation??? i don't know who's gonna take your action in town pare. you still gonna post? i'm quittin postin play. i suck at it.

LMAO, these guys know my NFL sucks but I can call a mean college game. It's going to be tough to shop for lines while I'm home. I'm not a huge fan of my online books but i might have to suck it up. If you don't see me post, call my parent's house if you need to get a hold of me but keep it reasonable pare. Don't call before every game tips.

 

[Macgruder23]

Mac,
My advice would be to start tracking ALL of your picks, not just your action. After the end of each day, you have to go back and make notes. Things like why you made the play and why you were right and why you were wrong. I know it's a lot of work, trust me, I know. But this is what's going to get you over the juice. There is value in every side so long as you figure out how the NBA is playing at the time. Last year, 90% of my action was on the under. That's how the NBA was, Last Year. This year, so far, I'm playing dogs. It'll change in a heartbeat so you have to stay on top of it.
As far as my capping sheets/notes. It would not make any sense at all. It doesn't predict games but instead paints a picture so I can see what's going on. I've never shared these with anyone before Grindstone. It's going to take some time for him to learn the full routine. I'm only doing this because I might be getting out of this game soon and I made a promise to pass it along just as it was given to me. Sorry Mac.

No need to be sorry your advice is suffice.. In all honesty I completely understand.. I work 8-530 m-f and I know about time(or lack of it) i usually run these numbers before I get to bed-after my youngins(kids) go to bed. So not as much time as I wish..I try and bank as much info as you provide, and will continue to pick your brain if u dont mind. I am guessing that the 1st month you watch and bet for action is to determine the "theme" for the upcoming year. Thanks for all you do..I can say that I have had more success since you, GS, ETZ the rest of the gang came around so I owe you thanks for what you have provided and what you continue to provide in the future. Last question pertaining to these sheets.. do you track with hand or computer?

 

[axp59]

No need to be sorry your advice is suffice.. In all honesty I completely understand.. I work 8-530 m-f and I know about time(or lack of it) i usually run these numbers before I get to bed-after my youngins(kids) go to bed. So not as much time as I wish..I try and bank as much info as you provide, and will continue to pick your brain if u dont mind. I am guessing that the 1st month you watch and bet for action is to determine the "theme" for the upcoming year. Thanks for all you do..I can say that I have had more success since you, GS, ETZ the rest of the gang came around so I owe you thanks for what you have provided and what you continue to provide in the future. Last question pertaining to these sheets.. do you track with hand or computer?

Thanks for understanding bro. I'm high tech now but I have a lot of hand-written notes from the years before I started using the net for info. Why don't you do this Mac, befriend me across the street so you can send me a PM. Ask away, I'll be more that happy to help if I can.
I think you are actually in the best forum here at MJ's. Learn SQDL to supplement you skill set. Read ETZ's takes on games. I mention him specifically because he looks at games very differently than I do. Looks like you got the number crunching down. Maybe a little trending too. Analyze situations and game-play. Most of all, have a money management plan in place and stick to it no matter what. re-evaluate periodically and make adjustments to your FULL "routine". BOL man

 

[Macgruder23]

Thanks for understanding bro. I'm high tech now but I have a lot of hand-written notes from the years before I started using the net for info. Why don't you do this Mac, befriend me across the street so you can send me a PM. Ask away, I'll be more that happy to help if I can.
I think you are actually in the best forum here at MJ's. Learn SQDL to supplement you skill set. Read ETZ's takes on games. I mention him specifically because he looks at games very differently than I do. Looks like you got the number crunching down. Maybe a little trending too. Analyze situations and game-play. Most of all, have a money management plan in place and stick to it no matter what. re-evaluate periodically and make adjustments to your FULL "routine". BOL man

Will definitely do that PM thing across the street..
Im off to bed looks like 5 hours sleep max--your sign in same as here? Mine is ! Thanks for shooting the breeze tonight--I know come Jan 1st I will have much more time to invest in this- Continued success my friend. Peace

 

[axp59]

'nite Mac
I'm axpiota59 across the street

 

[rragga2727]

great to see peolpe working , must say thanx to everyone's help tonight. got some accuscores
ny-85.9
clt-99.1

nj-85.9
cle-99.0

tor-99.4
mia-104.6

lal-98.7
chi-90.8

det-89.8
hou-94.6

sa-105.7
phx-108.4

smf-93
pdx-103.1

fwiw , i got phx a .5 fav.

 

[axp59]

ny-85.9
clt-99.1

sa-105.7
phx-108.4

WOW

that NY +5 isn't going to be much help :mj07:

Mac's not going to like that total for his game.

anyone tracking ACCU this season?

 

[rragga2727]

hey ax, I use the sports...network for reference injuries, plus it has accu's.

 

[rragga2727]

have not tracked results!!!

 

[Joe_Vienna]

freaks!!

Knicks @ Bobcats O197.5 -> locked

 

[Slicer]

I have not tracked accuscore this season, me and them had a falling out after they discontinued a service I had paid an annual subscription for claiming that the particular service I was using was not supposed to be included, so as "Compensation" they offered to upgrade my subscription for a discounted rate of an extra $200 and I told them to fuck off for breach of contract. If only I could have gotten other users to join me I would have sued them class action style.

 

[axp59]

I have not tracked accuscore this season, me and them had a falling out after they discontinued a service I had paid an annual subscription for claiming that the particular service I was using was not supposed to be included, so as "Compensation" they offered to upgrade my subscription for a discounted rate of an extra $200 and I told them to fuck off for breach of contract. If only I could have gotten other users to join me I would have sued them class action style.

Man that sucks. I know you tracked them in detail last year with your sheets. Well, without tracking, those numbers might as well be average PF and PA. Bummer

 

[BillyBatts]

Leans

Leans

These are the games I'm taking a look at.

Charlotte -5 and under
Suns -3 and under 210.



Will be back and try to contribute. If anyone can email me across the street where I could find the app that you use for "queries", it would be much appreciated. Thanks. :toast:

 

[40seven]

WOW Love the action in the forum

WOW Love the action in the forum

IMHO like ax said the Dogs have been ruling the book...tonight maybe not.

The Nets are not worthy of my money nor are the Bulls right now...

I lean to the Rapt's and am looking at the Knicks

But my 2 favs are Houston and Portland.

I will NOT play a game that has 90+ public support...

 

[axp59]

.
I see early money on CHA but I'm not sure it's going to move the number. I'm afraid some sharp action is going to move this the other way quickly to 4.5

I'm thinking we can get a better number on SAS but this is only a lean for me.

As expected, NY now +4.5 but it's not a strong 4.5 so there could be a few bets that might mover this back to 5 until it gets jumped on at that number.

SAS, as expected now at even money and hoping it gets the hook soon.

Not selling anything, just sharing info.

 

[40seven]

quick Q

quick Q

As expected, NY now +4.5 but it's not a strong 4.5 so there could be a few bets that might mover this back to 5 until it gets jumped on at that number.

SAS, as expected now at even money and hoping it gets the hook soon.

Not selling anything, just sharing info.

Where is the info coming from?

 

[axp59]

Bookmaker's line on SAS is +1.

hmmmmm

 

[axp59]

Where is the info coming from?

you seeing something different in Vegas Forty?

 

[axp59]

IMHO like ax said the Dogs have been ruling the book...tonight maybe not.

The Nets are not worthy of my money nor are the Bulls right now...

I lean to the Rapt's and am looking at the Knicks

But my 2 favs are Houston and Portland.

I will NOT play a game that has 90+ public support...

what's the square play Forty?