NBA WED 040109 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[easterntimezone]

What do you guys think about the Clippers tonight? They play alot better at home and the line has raiised to 4 for The Hornets. West doesn't look like he's gonna play tongiht, and I could see a huge letdown and night off for New Orleans tonight. Thoughts?

Hornets = one man team vis-a-vis LeBron w/ a worse supporting cast. No Posey, no Chandler, possibly no West - returning to that adage of the more you play, the more you get exposed as marginal role/bench players aren't able to sustain their overachieving efforts for too long a duration.

Clippers may be awful, but a team unencumbered by any postseason aspirations and pressures and minus Baron Davis - i.e. able to play freely and w/ a speedy score first point in rookie Mike Taylor who's able to match Paul's pace on the floor?

(Extremely) promising.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

can someone please explain the correct description of a "back 2 back" game??

does that mean they had their previous game away and the next one is also away??

 

[easterntimezone]

can someone please explain the correct description of a "back 2 back" game??

does that mean they had their previous game away and the next one is also away??

Have always known it as games on consecutive days - regardless of whether or not they are played at the same location or different ones (home or away)...

 

[BillyBatts]

can someone please explain the correct description of a "back 2 back" game??

does that mean they had their previous game away and the next one is also away??

Nope, 2 games in 2 nights

 

[barts185]

Charlotte-Everyone knows teams have major letdown after beating Lakers SU, Think line is inflated for that reason.

I guess the question would be how much have they pushed the line up.

After beating the Lakers this season
po:team=Lakers and p:W and season=2008
SU: 4-11 (-5.4)
ATS: 5-10-0 (-3.1) avg line: 2.3
O/U: 6-8-1 (-4.1) avg total: 204.3


if the team is then a dog
po:team=Lakers and p:W and season=2008 and line>0
SU: 2-8 (-9.9)
ATS: 3-7-0 (-2.9) avg line: 7.0
O/U: 4-5-1 (-2.0) avg total: 204.1

2 of those 3 covers were back in December. Since 01/01 as a dog

SU: 1-5 (-9.5)
ATS: 1-5-0 (-4.0) avg line: 5.5
O/U: 2-4-0 (-6.0) avg total: 205.5

Date Team Opp Site Final Rest FG% Line Total SUm ATSm OUm DPS DPA SUr ATSr OUr

20090107 NOR UTH A 90-116 0&1 43-51 +4' +191' -26 -21.5 14.5 -3.5 18.0 L L O
20090117 ORL DEN A 106-88 0&1 46-36 +1 +209' 18 19.0 -15.5 1.8 -17.2 W W U
20090128 CBC POR A 74-88 0&1 41-45 +11 +180 -14 -3.0 -18.0 -10.5 -7.5 L L U
20090303 PHO ORL A 99-111 1&2 44-47 +7 +232 -12 -5.0 -22.0 -13.5 -8.5 L L U
20090318 PHI PHO A 116-126 0&2 54-57 +7 +227 -10 -3.0 15.0 6.0 9.0 L L O
20090331 ATL PHI A 85-98 1&1 44-46 +2' +193 -13 -10.5 -10.0 -10.2 0.2 L L U

 

[Joe_Vienna]

THX u guys! I am not from Northern America so I didn't knew it!

I thought it was totally different :scared :mj07:

 

[barts185]

can someone please explain the correct description of a "back 2 back" game??

does that mean they had their previous game away and the next one is also away??

As others have pointed out, it just means that they played yesterday and are playing again today.

However, some people have started noting that teams can play differently depending on the location of the prior game and the location of today's game.

Away/Away
Home/Home
Away/Home
Home/Away

 

[BillyBatts]

Son of a bitch!!! Line dropped 2 points everywhere in 20 minutes on that Memphis toitla!!
:mj13: Gonna lock it and Raptors +9.5 now, before they drop any lower. Gonna run some errands and be back to see what the consensus is guys.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Could be a good play, especially with this trend toward the end of the year, with 2 crap teams with nothing to play for, there isnt much Defensive intensity. Gonna run some numbers myself now.

Just a thought. After watching the Jazz get run out of the building last night and the number soared over the total, does anyone have any stats about playing a b2b the next day after playing MY, GSW, Pho, or Sacramento? Thinking the "tired leg" syndrome might apply more the next day after playing one of thse up tempo teams, especially here at the end when team are alittle on the tired side as it iis, thanks. Also maybe some stats about teams that got beat by 25+ the previus game and are faves the next, like the Nets tongiht?

Knicks:
po:team=Knicks and rest=0 and season=2008

SU: 6-13 (-6.5)
ATS: 5-14-0 (-4.6) avg line: 1.9
O/U: 11-7-1 (4.6) avg total: 195.5

Warriors:
po:team=Warriors and rest=0 and season=2008

SU: 10-8 (2.4)
ATS: 13-5-0 (4.9) avg line: 2.5
O/U: 11-7-0 (3.3) avg total: 195.3

Suns:
po:team=Suns and rest=0 and season=2008

SU: 7-10 (-2.6)
ATS: 8-9-0 (-0.1) avg line: 2.5
O/U: 7-10-0 (-1.9) avg total: 204.6 :scared

Kings:
po:team=Kings and rest=0 and season=2008

SU: 7-15 (-4.6)
ATS: 8-13-1 (-2.1) avg line: 2.5
O/U: 11-11-0 (0.2) avg total: 198.9

overall:
rest=0 and season=2008
SU: 226-295 (-2.2)
ATS: 261-252-8 (-0.0) avg line: 2.2
O/U: 268-244-9 (1.4) avg total: 198.8

:0corn

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Could be a good play, especially with this trend toward the end of the year, with 2 crap teams with nothing to play for, there isnt much Defensive intensity. Gonna run some numbers myself now.

Just a thought. After watching the Jazz get run out of the building last night and the number soared over the total, does anyone have any stats about playing a b2b the next day after playing MY, GSW, Pho, or Sacramento? Thinking the "tired leg" syndrome might apply more the next day after playing one of thse up tempo teams, especially here at the end when team are alittle on the tired side as it iis, thanks. Also maybe some stats about teams that got beat by 25+ the previus game and are faves the next, like the Nets tongiht?

season=2008 and p:margin<=-25 and F

SU: 13-10 (0.4)
ATS: 9-14-0 (-5.0) avg line: -5.4
O/U: 9-14-0 (-1.5) avg total: 201.3

 

[BillyBatts]

Thanks alot Joe, much appreciated. :00x15

So that 203 or whatever the Avg was with the Suns, was the posted total for those teams playing the next night on a back to back?? I guess the only thing that stands out is that, and the fact that it does tend to point towards over on the next game for these teams? And as for the NJ one, I was thinking it would be a better ATS. Can't remeber the stat I seen, but it had to do with the Nuggets. Think it was regarding out of conference or out of division teams, and maybe not a favorite or dog the next game. Thanks man.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Thanks alot Joe, much appreciated. :00x15

So that 203 or whatever the Avg was with the Suns, was the posted total for those teams playing the next night on a back to back?? I guess the only thing that stands out is that, and the fact that it does tend to point towards over on the next game for these teams? And as for the NJ one, I was thinking it would be a better ATS. Can't remeber the stat I seen, but it had to do with the Nuggets. Think it was regarding out of conference or out of division teams, and maybe not a favorite or dog the next game. Thanks man.

Yes, the stats are all the stats AFTER playing Suns, Kings,etc.

No problem, if it helps to find another nice trend! ;-)

 

[easterntimezone]

Found a few eyebrow raisers that point to ORL -10 as the play...

TORONTO is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games second half of the season this season.

ORLANDO is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 99+ points/game this season.

The total for this game should be north of 200, and with ORL striving to hold of BOS for the 2nd spot in the east, expect a strong showing from Dwight Howard and the magic.

Strong lean to ORL -10

Like PNP, am staying the F away from this game - still unsure as to whether or not the recent run of form for the Raptors is a mirage or legit. And if Van Gundy can focus his team on tonight's game instead of salivating at the prospect of welcoming James and his gang w/ a loss on Friday.

As for the Pistons/Nets match, Detroit played its heart out last night against LeBron only to come up short - even Austin Carr had to remark that the Cavaliers needed to work to be able to pull out a victory. Given that they came out on the losing end, is there the possibility that the Pistons come out flat against a rudderless Nets team, enabling New Jersey to build a head of steam?

If appealing to logic, Pistons win easy. But this is the NBA where NON-SEQUITURS transpire all the time - in fact, the proper phrase for the NBA ought to be NOT 'where amazing happens,' but 'where the implausible FREQUENTLY happens and impacts negatively on your (gambling) wallet' - not saying it will happen, but remains the possibility and not a minute one at that.

 

[Joe_Vienna]

Can't remeber the stat I seen, but it had to do with the Nuggets. Think it was regarding out of conference or out of division teams, and maybe not a favorite or dog the next game. Thanks man.

Nuggets after loosing by 25+ and been favorite next game, since season 2004
team=Nuggets and p:margin<=-25 and line < 0 and season>=2004

SU: 6-2 (10.0)
ATS: 5-3-0 (4.5) avg line: -5.5
O/U: 5-2-1 (4.7) avg total: 207.8

since 2007
team=Nuggets and p:margin<=-25 and F and season>=2007

SU: 5-1 (12.5)
ATS: 4-2-0 (6.4) avg line: -6.1
O/U: 3-2-1 (2.7) avg total: 208.5

this season
team=Nuggets and p:margin<=-25 and line < 0 and season>=2008

SU: 2-0 (9.0)
ATS: 1-1-0 (3.8) avg line: -5.2
O/U: 1-1-0 (-3.8) avg total: 203.8

Nuggets after loosing by 25+ and been dog next game, since season 2004
team=Nuggets and p:margin<=-25 and D and season>=2004

SU: 1-4 (-4.2)
ATS: 2-3-0 (0.7) avg line: 4.9
O/U: 2-3-0 (-4.4) avg total: 205.0

since 2007
team=Nuggets and p:margin<=-25 and 0 <line and season>=2007

SU: 0-1 (-4.0)
ATS: 1-0-0 (3.0) avg line: 7.0
O/U: 1-0-0 (9.5) avg total: 200.5

 

[VegasAce21]

Yes, and yes, PnP. Went for a full unit ATS and half quarter unit ML play which paid off nicely.

And yes, Axp. Locked in for a unit.

another reason not to do the fave ML parlays! GL today fellas....

 

[ImNext1000]

i dont like any of the games today , maybe lakers and dallas at home......i might just take the day off and go to the tiddy bar ........:toast:

 

[axp59]

i dont like any of the games today , maybe lakers and dallas at home......i might just take the day off and go to the tiddy bar ........:toast:

save me a seat...I hate this card

 

[burnetto57]

burnetto57

burnetto57

I haven't paid too much attention to this lately but I think with limited games left...I WON this thing. Take me off this list and you've got some pretty damn good cappers. WOW

Axpiota59 75-37 (67%)* +38
Iwm8888 42-17 (71%)** +25
Chump 70-45 (61%) +25
Kings55dez 56-35 (62%) +21
Tomius 50-29 (64%)** +21
Wildcats08 33-13 (72%) +20
CharlieM 62-43 (60%)** +19
Yoyo 33-15 (69%) +18
Nyczyoungn 47-30 (61%) +17
RobertGould79 24-7 (77%) +17

Think the rest are headed for the lottery:mj07:

 

[axp59]

Think the rest are headed for the lottery:mj07:

:mj07: :142smilie :mj07:

 

[axp59]

Has anyone seen ValueforRent's play? I'm locking it in but I'm a homer