I am not into all the stats as you guys have, but if you JUST LOOK AT LINE MOVEMENTS EITHER TOTALS OR SIDES...looking at yesterdays numbers, you would have gone 7-1 if you would went AGAINST the public and looking at a line movement of at least one point, either side or total...
NBA WED 040109 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)
- Thread starter axp59
- Start date
Nothing of major value today so I'm taking 3 plays small, all my initial impressions:
C's Over 180
Houston +1.5
Wizards +2
All for 1/3 U a piece.
Week Total: +1.91 units
C's Over 180
Houston +1.5
Wizards +2
All for 1/3 U a piece.
Week Total: +1.91 units
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What is it Ax? Usually find his reasoning to be sound - and he does pick sides that aren't necessarily what one would immediately jump at upon initial impression.
My play today is anti-public
It's rare that I go full 1U on my home team but today is it.
[504] BOSTON -8-110
BOLTA
Hmmm...i'm sure you saw that the only time the last 6 games that boston has covered was at the end of 2008 when I'm sure Char was unloading the bench or at least had just nothing to play for
CHARLOTTE is 6-2 against the spread versus BOSTON since 1996
BOSTON is 6-2 straight up against CHARLOTTE since 1996
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996
CHARLOTTE is 4-0 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 2-2 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-2 straight up against CHARLOTTE since 1996
5 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1996
CHARLOTTE is 4-0 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 2-2 straight up against CHARLOTTE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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There's a lot of blah, blah, blah about the Bobcats needing to win to ensure their spot in the playoffs; but even Jordan conceded during a game-in-session interview last night that Charlotte lacks a superstar- and that the team needs to exert a collective effort to be successful.
Boston minus Garnett still w/ 2 studs in Pierce and Allen.
Rondo versus Felton (personally believe that he isn't as great as his press clippings would have one believe) and Augustin (who has huge upside potential, but is still a rookie and endured a shooting slump earlier this season) -> Rondo.
Celtics in this spot - rested and waiting... Biding their time.
What else personally favoring hinted at in other posts in this thread.
Here's what sold me. Only one other time this season has CHA been in this exact situation.
Coming into an elite team's house after winning at home against another elite team b2b.
sound familiar? BOS goes to CHA and losses 1/6/09. The very next day, 1/7/09, CHA goes to CLE and gets smoked by 30.
add the revenge factor that VFR mentions...8 is a bargain IMHO
you are the man for sure, I will tail you vs my stats anyday, boston -8 it is, ty axman
i took charlotte +9 last night but was thinkin it was a trap the entire time
still not totally sure on this game
the teams matchup decently well i think bell can lock down allen
okafor/diaw should have a decent game against davis/perkins
wallace and pierce will be a good battle
and the point guards we'll call a push since none are really that stand out
i do believe charlotte needs this game more and is hungrier for the win but they are coming off a b2b and celtics still play really good ball even without kg
hoping charlotte can still cover even tho boston will prob win SU
still not totally sure on this game
the teams matchup decently well i think bell can lock down allen
okafor/diaw should have a decent game against davis/perkins
wallace and pierce will be a good battle
and the point guards we'll call a push since none are really that stand out
i do believe charlotte needs this game more and is hungrier for the win but they are coming off a b2b and celtics still play really good ball even without kg
hoping charlotte can still cover even tho boston will prob win SU
damn bro, don't tail me man, I'm just throwing out arguments for my play like you are. LOL Don't throw all of that away because of me. :scared
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Also Lakers in a downward tailspin at the moment, after besting mediocre teams such as Chicago, Oklahoma City, they get stopped dead in their tracks by a Hawks team ready to nurture their depleted egos (undermined by losing to Spurs and Celtics) - then to the Bobcats who are playing nice ball, but out-of-this-world?
Taking another win against the Lakers this season is praiseworthy indeed, but they're still a team fighting to get into the playoffs (albeit w/ a heavily revised roster relative to the start of the season) and have been known to lay an egg now and again (Timberwolves in Minnesota and Pacers at home are 2 recent games that spring to mind).
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here you go AX public %
Char open 9 current 8- 8.5
Bost
Char 56 %
Bost 46%
Loving Bost in a big way brother.
axp: raja bell didn't play in both those games
the OT win against bos and the loss to cleveland
raja bell is prob one of the better defenders in the league and i definitely think he can influence a game
i mean he's no kobe but he meshes well with charlotte and buys into the defense and team mentality larry brown instilled in them.
but don't mind me i'm just trying to convince myself i made the right play when i prob didn't :\
the OT win against bos and the loss to cleveland
raja bell is prob one of the better defenders in the league and i definitely think he can influence a game
i mean he's no kobe but he meshes well with charlotte and buys into the defense and team mentality larry brown instilled in them.
but don't mind me i'm just trying to convince myself i made the right play when i prob didn't :\
Point taken Jim. Thank you. And please everyone, as objective as I appear to be, I AM A C's HOMER. Please keep that in mind when considering my arguments. :00x11
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Still waiting on an 8 (maybe, hopefully a 7.5) - team on edge striving to make the playoffs or remain in the seedings like the Hornets (hint) maybe forces shots, etc., trying to will themselves to victory; Celtics are working last minute kinks out, etc. - honing their game preparations for the postseason; when you're playing w/o an overarching (and potentially mentally draining) albatross, you can see the court better and so forth.
