NBA WED 040109 early thoughts - value hunting (NO PICKS INSIDE)

[Ools]

Was looking at Hou already - i think this tipped me:

Play Against home teams where the line is +3 to -3, after three or more consecutive losses, in April games.
This NBA April system has been around since 2005 and is 26-6 ATS, 81.2 percent. The point spread has not been a large component with straight up winner 25-7, winning by an average 6.3 points per game.

Houston over Phx (3 straight loses) - ML looks good too.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

What are the parameters of lookahead games exactly? I see everyone mentioning the Cavs when they talk about the Magic today but these two don't match up until Friday? If it was tomorrow I'd understand...

No parameters, just common sense This late in the season, Toronto loss is a no-brainer and they should just roll over and take the pounding. A game with possible playoff opponent is far more important, players will want to test eachother out and whatnot.
I would be looking for lesser defensive effort from Magic and the way Toronto is playing now, all out offense and a lot of running, they could pull off something uppsetting here (in 1st half at least) if they catch Magic dozing off.

 

[CoFred]

Hey Ax, I sent you a pm across the street asking if you could email me the documents for baseball. Thanks a ton.

You have a full unit on your C's?

I also like the over in the Toronto/Orlando game tonight. Toronto giving up over 100 seems almost guarranteed. GL All

:toast:

 

[PickNPop]

No parameters, just common sense This late in the season, Toronto loss is a no-brainer and they should just roll over and take the pounding. A game with possible playoff opponent is far more important, players will want to test eachother out and whatnot.
I would be looking for lesser defensive effort from Magic and the way Toronto is playing now, all out offense and a lot of running, they could pull off something uppsetting here (in 1st half at least) if they catch Magic dozing off.

I realize the Cavs game is important, but it's still not till Friday. Surely they should be focused enough on today's game?

With that being said, you got any action on this game?

 

[bleedingpurple]

This thread is for discussion of picks, not to be used as a blind following tool, if it is used that way, the least you could do is read it...

SO NO I DON'T FEEL THAT WAY:director:

I meant having a seperate thread ... Just asking.. I would love to read and tonight I have the time to readbut there are days when I cant

 

[LookKaPyPy]

Was looking at Hou already - i think this tipped me:

Play Against home teams where the line is +3 to -3, after three or more consecutive losses, in April games.
This NBA April system has been around since 2005 and is 26-6 ATS, 81.2 percent. The point spread has not been a large component with straight up winner 25-7, winning by an average 6.3 points per game.

Houston over Phx (3 straight loses) - ML looks good too.

I was wondering if I should let the books cap this one for me as looking at away-smalldog and home-smallfav for each team we're looking at 26-16 SU and 29-13 ATS in favor of the Rockets (since 2006).
Suns are good as double-revenge team playing home, but surprisingly not so on 2 or more days rest 7-8 SU since 2002.

All that aside, have they given upp for the season ? Looking at this from team matchup side it's pretty clear that Suns shouldn't be able to score as many points as they give up.

 

[LookKaPyPy]

I realize the Cavs game is important, but it's still not till Friday. Surely they should be focused enough on today's game?

With that being said, you got any action on this game?

Look at the Nuggets last night, they opened up great, got 27pts lead and then just stopped playing. Maybe cuz they had Jazz next up (tomorrow) ? Maybe they just thought it was over. If I imagine similar scenario, I see Toronto that is far less tired and emotionally drained than Knicks were.
I have no intention to make my pick based on how Knicks played Nuggets, but I have to admit I am being tickled by the idea of Raptors upset. Gundy did talk about giving more time to his bench players, even days off to his starters, and what better time than vs no-playoff team and before the Cavs.
Also, their #2 seed...I could bet a unit or two that they are paying close attention to where Pistons are gonna land.

 

[axp59]

VERY INTERESTING ON THE NOT UNDER ORL/TOR...

AX,

you have 187 on Clips, your 3 possession cushion is there and this to support it si I ask why no play on the CLIPS UNDER?

t:team=Clippers and site=home and 100.*tp:assists/tp:field goals made<50 and 100.*tpp:assists/tpp:field goals made<50 and tpp:season=season and 20031115<=date

Yes, this does qualify and actually looks like a good play but I have some minor signals that indicate very good possibilities of this game not staying under. As you know, for me to play a U, I'd like it to have ALL my signals agreeing. Many times I will play a U with one or two signaling neutral but this game has some questionable signals.

 

[PickNPop]

Anyone on on the Wizz tonight? Found these tidbits you know where:

MEM is 0-8 SU & 1-7 ATS in their first home game following a road trip of 2 or more games.

Mayo reached the career high mark with an uncontested dunk on the Grizzlies' last possession, when Memphis had an opportunity to run out the clock. Tapscott didn't take offense to the play, calling it "youthful exuberance."

Butler, however, thought differently.

"That's a sign of disrespect," he said. "It's one of those things. You've got to understand people are going to kick you when you're down."

I'm leaning heavily towards playing this but they got the LeBrons back home tomorrow night which worries me.

 

[axp59]

hey Ax, pick looks solid. CHA has owned the LAL 7-1 L8 n took out Kobe w their D and LAL a bit tired towards end of road trip and expending alotta emotion in big initial road wins and L to ATL. couple of ?....what your take on the C's U bein that both are very good D teams (both in top 5 in ppg allowed) n its comin up on playoffs? 2nd, howz bout the side on LAL 2 nite only -7 and losing 2 in a row, and on last game of roadie. need one good dubya to get the bad taste outta their mouth n go home on a pos note.....

Not liking the U at all. It's going to be one of those games...

 

[axp59]

ps...i can do some queries but not sure how to do win % etc. can you do a querie for elite teams (BOS) playing other teams <.500 (.400?, ie CHA) after the <.400 team beat another elite team SU and on back end of B2B? that querie should work for both BOS vs CHA tonight and LAL vs MIL...thanks, and youve probably already done this i just havent seen it posted...

example queries for Boston

team=Celtics and o:WP<=50 and and o:rest=0 and season=2008

means C's this season against less than .500 teams on the tail end of a b2b. hope this helps ace

 

[axp59]

Playoff - Situational objectives: How much do we think this fits into L 8 or so games in terms of how they approach each game. Example (seeing their both playin tonite and some of us have a 'homer play on 1).

Bost: currently 56-19, #3 seed, wud play Philly #6 who they have beaten 3-0 TSeason and play one more time on 4/14. Additionally: Bost can only influence seed 3 or Orl's seed 2(Orl 55-18).

Bost remaining games: V.CHA 4/1; V. MIA 4/3; V.NJ 4/8; V. MIA 4/10; @Cleve 4/12; @Philly 4/14, V. Wash 4/15 (4 @H in a row - not exactly grueling)

Orlando: Currently #2 seed (1 game seperate them fron Bost) - they would currently play Detroit, whom they r 0-3 against T Season

Orl remaining games: V. Tor 4/1; V.Cleve 4/3; @ Atl 4/4; @ Houst 4/7; V. Memph 4/8; V.NYK 4/10; @NJ 4/11; @ milw 4/13; V. CHA 4/15 ( a bit more grueling w/ travel) Like Bost, they cannot catch Cleve#1(unlikely) nor can they loose seed to ATL#4 :shrug:

this is good info KB, very good

 

[axp59]

Moved over the border to Salem but I go to school at University of Wisconsin

Go Badgers!!!

 

[axp59]

I don't know how others feel, but it would be nice if you could have a thread posted with just your plays after you have figured them out... Sometimes I work late anddon't have to get throught this thread...

Let me throw this out there. Hey A-Team...how do you guys feel about a picks only thread for our crew. If so, anyone want to be responsible for starting this everyday?

thoughts please...thanks

 

[axp59]

This thread is for discussion of picks, not to be used as a blind following tool, if it is used that way, the least you could do is read it...

SO NO I DON'T FEEL THAT WAY:director:

Ok I know how Jus feels. thank you

 

[axp59]

Was looking at Hou already - i think this tipped me:

Play Against home teams where the line is +3 to -3, after three or more consecutive losses, in April games.
This NBA April system has been around since 2005 and is 26-6 ATS, 81.2 percent. The point spread has not been a large component with straight up winner 25-7, winning by an average 6.3 points per game.

Houston over Phx (3 straight loses) - ML looks good too.

I agreed with this on page 2 or 3. value play on the ML.

 

[axp59]

Hey Ax, I sent you a pm across the street asking if you could email me the documents for baseball. Thanks a ton.

You have a full unit on your C's?

I also like the over in the Toronto/Orlando game tonight. Toronto giving up over 100 seems almost guarranteed. GL All

:toast:

yes Cor....and email all set pal. BOL

 

[axp59]

I meant having a seperate thread ... Just asking.. I would love to read and tonight I have the time to readbut there are days when I cant

We're going to collect some opinions on this issues BP. BOL tonight!

 

[axp59]

BOLTA

 

[BillyBatts]

I went with the Homer Special tonight as my big play, after I went 3-0 in my degenerate preseason baseball plays today. Let it ride!!
Hope the Beantown boys show em why they are the Champs tonight!!!:00x9