NBA WED 110409 early thoughts - value hunting

[axp59]

12-4 YTD

10 games on the board. if you got early thoughts, throw 'em out there so we can break the games down. I'm about to do my pre-cap routine to try and spot some whacked numbers.

as a reminder: I won't be around much WED, I'm extremely busy but I'll pop in occasionally when I have something to add.

today is a good day to make money.

 

[M__J]

this just in: portland sucks at home!!

man i thought we were on the right side of that one. they pushed it to ten once and eight another time and just couldnt put them away. Oh well tomorrow is a big day. Thanks for the help Ax.

 

[axp59]

I feel your pain M__J. I thought we had the right side. POR at home??? This ain't last year's POR home team. Don't you just love the books, they're going to give us a chance to win our money back WED. LOL we'll get it back brother.

 

[M__J]

early lean:

wash -3

lets get it

 

[Eagle123]

Any early lean on tmr game Ax?

 

[paradox]

I'm thinking the Magic tomorrow will kick Suns royal ass. Suns oldies will be tired, and the Magic hungry to get back on the winning horse. Just waiting to see what the handicap will be.

Atlanta -5.5 against the Kings also caught my attention. Atlanta are pretty solid, and the Kings did play well against Memphis, but i think they will be no match for the Hawks.

These are the two things that popped right up, but i'm gonna let all the lines come out.

 

[- FT -]

Nice start Ax...would love to have a beer with you one day and talk strategy. Let me know if you are ever in TX.

 

[easterntimezone]

Some random musings before shutting it down for the night...

Denver in New Jersey - last season, Nuggets go up against the Nets, apparently everyone save for Billups and Chris Anderson (?) party the night before in New York; Billups rips his team a new one after being humiliated and embarrassed - don't expect a repeat of that situation once again this time 'round - and given Anthony's new resolve, not sure how the Nets respond here.

Given the schizophrenic personality of the Hawks over the last couple of years, wouldn't be surprised if they went into Sacramento and either win (but lose ATS) or lose outright. Team able to contend handily at times and look like a well-run machine, but then stutter w/o any glaring reasons as to why.

Why isn't Boston not favored by more than 10 in Minneapolis? Rambis has kept the Wolves scrappily competitive, but they're still eons away from resembling a legit entity. Older legs perhaps re: the Celts? :00x32

 

[canuckfan77]

Celtics -10. I'm not sure about the ATS wins for Boston this year, but they're crushing everyone.

Ride them until they give us a reason not to :shrug:

 

[pkkingster15]

Early thoughts:

Knicks -5 and Warriors over 225.

Any thoughts?

 

[paradox]

Some random musings before shutting it down for the night...

Denver in New Jersey - last season, Nuggets go up against the Nets, apparently everyone save for Billups and Chris Anderson (?) party the night before in New York; Billups rips his team a new one after being humiliated and embarrassed - don't expect a repeat of that situation once again this time 'round - and given Anthony's new resolve, not sure how the Nets respond here.

Devin Harris still out too..

 

[axp59]

WAS and BOS already moving. Big board means big hidden value. You know what I'm going to say next. Let the economy of the board dictate where your money goes.
I have nothing that jumps at me right now so I'll wait until both coasts have their say tomorrow about 1300. This is a perfect time to jot down some expected numbers. Again, you know what I'm going to say next. You can't see value unless you know ahead of time what you're willing to pay for.

Good luck capping fellas. I'm going to take this time to go over the past week's notes I made.
:idea:

 

[axp59]

Any early lean on tmr game Ax?

nothing yet tonight E.

 

[axp59]

Nice start Ax...would love to have a beer with you one day and talk strategy. Let me know if you are ever in TX.

Always looking to learn from a fellow capper bro. If I ever make it down David Allan Coe country, I'll let you know!

 

[3win8]

Hey Guys new to this site and love everthing that you guys are doing here.
I love the NYK -5
and O 226(two running team, I think the total for this game is around 230's)
:00x32 :00x32
Any thoughts?

 

[proguy747]

Some random musings before shutting it down for the night...

Denver in New Jersey - last season, Nuggets go up against the Nets, apparently everyone save for Billups and Chris Anderson (?) party the night before in New York; Billups rips his team a new one after being humiliated and embarrassed - don't expect a repeat of that situation once again this time 'round - and given Anthony's new resolve, not sure how the Nets respond here.

Given the schizophrenic personality of the Hawks over the last couple of years, wouldn't be surprised if they went into Sacramento and either win (but lose ATS) or lose outright. Team able to contend handily at times and look like a well-run machine, but then stutter w/o any glaring reasons as to why.

Why isn't Boston not favored by more than 10 in Minneapolis? Rambis has kept the Wolves scrappily competitive, but they're still eons away from resembling a legit entity. Older legs perhaps re: the Celts? :00x32

Historicaly the wolves have kept it very close...
I still believe the celts this year are ready to set records if they stay healthy....

Locked celts -10
Lean Knicks -5
lean atl -5.5

 

[ReadySetGo]

Thanks

Thanks

Thanks guys for another productive evening yesterday. I'm leaning to the Celtics as well; they've held their opponents to 89, 59, 90, 87 and 74 for the year while Minnesota has given up 93, 104, 120 and 93. They lost at home in November to Boston last year 78-95 in and then in Boston in early February 101-109.

 

[40seven]

I like the Under in the Celts game....

I like the Under in the Celts game....

We have a very reasonable number 190 and...

It has worked all season...only 1 game was above that number and both lower tier teams have been below that number.

Anybody?

 

[proguy747]

We have a very reasonable number 190 and...

It has worked all season...only 1 game was above that number and both lower tier teams have been below that number.

Anybody?

normaly agree but last night celts scored 36 in the fourth. The second team is just as most middle of the pack nba staring lineups.... scared to pull the trigger as last night the second half under looked golden until boston just pours it on..

question is can the opposing team can score more then 85 points?

 

[Joe_Vienna]

t:team=Pacers and playoffs=0 and 20<=p:three pointers attempted and 100.*p:three pointers made/p:three pointers attempted<25 and p:season=season and 20031229<=date

again the pacers :shrug:

Grizzlies???
t:team=Grizzlies and site=away and 0<rest and p:season=season and tp:margin<=-10 and tp:season=season and 100.*tp:assists/tp:field goals made<=Average(100.*tp:assists/tp:field goals made@tp:team and tp:season)-10 and 19980222<=date

hmmm

t:team=Grizzlies and site=away and tpp:site=away and tp:site=away and tpp:margin<0 and tp:margin<0 and tpp:season=season and 20060122<=date

My leans for today

MIA @ WAS O193
IND @ NYK O226,5
DEN @ NJD U199,5
ATL @ SAC O208

BOL :shrug:
Joe