ncaa football: september 8th -- 10th .....

[gman2]

swept all four mac gms week 1 and 4-0 ncaa week. perfect start to season, and added sun tzu's clemson to make it even better. thanks sun. anyways, here are some mac notes ive put together, among other conferences.

(added play toward botton of thread)

the high-powered eastern michigan offense was held relatively in check by cincinnati last thursday. the eagles offense, expected to be one of the best in the mac, had only 18 first downs and 316 yards of offense ... matt bohnet (emu) was 22/33 for 167, with most of the yards coming on short and intermediate routes ... true freshman tim conner started at tailback ... conner's start segues nicely into the fact that anthony sherrell has gone from one of the best backs in college football a few years ago (854 yards in 2004, 1531 as a sophomore in 2003), to somewhat of an afterthought for the eagles right now. incidentally, sherrell didn't even make the trip to cincinnati because of a "coaches decision" (genyk's words). his status with the team seems very touch and go. last week, genyk said sherrell would miss the cincy game but would dress for the louisiana-lafayette game. but the depth chart has conner and pierre walker both ahead of sherrell ... true freshman ontario sneed (central michigan) lived up to the hype in his college debut against indiana. he had 14 carries for 148 yards, including an 80-yard touchdown ... for the 2nd straight year, central michigan outgained the hoosiers in total offense for most of the game, but made critical mistakes that cost them chances to win ... no report on ball state is worth mentioning. their game against iowa was nothing more than a controlled scrimmage for the hawkeyes because of all the suspensions ... toledo used their season opener against western illinois to get a look at some of their younger guys, and they might have found another gem to add to their already deep backfield. true freshman richard davis had 111 yards on 13 carries ... bruce gradkowski (toledo) saw limited action in the rout and was 9/17 for 134 yards and 2 scores ... garrett wolfe (northern illinois) rushed for 148 yards on 17 carries and had a 76-yard dash for a TD against michigan ... phil horvath (northern illinois) looked pretty good against the wolverines, throwing for 200 yards on 17/25 passing and an interception. he did a good job of staying in the pocket and finding his guys ... two fumbles made the final score in the northern illinois/michigan game a lot more lopsided than it should have been. shatone powers fielded (and then fumbled) a punt on his own 10 yard line right before halftime, which made for a short michigan TD drive ... garrett wolfe also coughed up the football in michigan's red zone when the huskies were driving and threatening to score

omar jacobs (bowling green) threw for 458 yards and 5 touchdowns but unfortunately he cant play defense because the bg run defense was absolutely gashed by calhoun and wisconsin (to the tune of 388 yards) ... redshirt freshman corey partridge led bg with 8 catches for 160 yards and a TD, which is a scary because he was very impressive in spring practice (led by in catches and yards in the spring gm) and then fall camp. and his first collegiate game was outstanding, and now jacobs has yet another weapon as his disposal on offense ... kent state's defense, which was rated #1 in the mac last year, gave up an obscene 685 total yards to michigan state ... the flashes gave up on trying to run the ball with their injury-depleted running back corps in the 2nd quarter. kent rushed for just 14 yards on 15 attempts ... on a bright note, juco-transfer michael machen looked very good at times. he has excellent size and a terrific arm (no surprise considering he started at alabama, and then played some minor league baseball before he found his way to kent state) and he has the chance to be a very good quarterback for them. the defense got shredded, but the flashes might have found themselves a nice quarterback. he threw for 293 yards in his college debut) ... buffalo generated only six first downs against uconn on thursday .. quarterback stewart sampsel (buffalo) was 6 of 17 for 51 yards, but to be fair, he got no help from the skill positions. the buffalo offense is just bad ... conversely, the defense did their part to keep it a game, and the score was just 3-0 connecticut midway through the 2nd before uconn capitalized on some buffalo mistakes and led 24-0 at the break (and won 38-0) ... akron had the opening week off to prepare for purdue ... miami was downright awful in ohio state. quarterback josh betts was sacked 5 times and threw a interception deep in his own territory that donte whitner returned for a touchdown ... martin nance (miami) was the lone bright spot for the redhawks. he caught 9 passes for 106 yards, an encouraging sign after all that he went through late last season ... the frank solich era at ohio university got off to a lame start. northwestern hung 38 pts + 550 total yards on the bobcats defense ... quarterback austin everson (ohio) was just 10/26 for 156 yards ... western michigan, despite injuries and suspension, showed a lot of heart in their 31-19 loss to virginia ... robbie haas threw for 271 yards in his fill-in duty ... greg jennings (wmu) who might just be one of the most underrated receivers in the country, mainly because hes on a mediocre team, caught 16 passes for 156 yards.

will post play later.

 

[WAC ATTACK]

Nice Recap.

Keep it comming G-Man

 

[gman2]

big news at central michigan. it was starting to look like jerry seymour's legal troubles were going to pass and that brian kelly would reinstate him to the team at some point within the next few weeks.

um. you can just about scratch seymour for the season. he was arraigned today on a count of 2nd degree murder along with a whole bunch of other charges (involuntary manslaughter, perjury, etc). starting running back spencer lewis was also arraigned on the same count. from a football standpoint, i wouldnt read too much into the 'starting running back' label, because he was only starting because seymour was out, and with the way ontario sneed played against indiana, he was gonna be back to 2nd string anyways very soon.

the whole situation is pretty ugly. a kid was beaten unconscious last july outside a club in saginaw and then died a week or two later.

 

[Sun Tzu]

Isn't there a fundamental problem in any sentence that includes both "big news" and "Central michigan."

 

[gman2]

Isn't there a fundamental problem in any sentence that includes both "big news" and "Central michigan."

in a few years when cmu is really good, no.
but for now -- yeah, 'big news' and central michigan dont necessarily go together. whats said is that i cant say im totally surprised about something like this. its amazing the shit these dudes get themselves into. seymour is from florida, so he probably took the requisite high school course in law breaking 101. cmu having sneed to fall back on is a godsend, otherwise theyd be suffering a huge hit.

 

[gman2]

pj pope is questionable for bowling green's game against ball state this week. if hes not 100% i cant see why brandon would possibly put him in the lineup. theyre gonna score at least 50 points against ball state with or without him, and considering the falcons have a big game with boise state on deck next wednesday, risking injury against a pukebag team like ball state would make no sense. bj lane would get the start if he doesnt go.

western michigan could be without cubit again at quarterback (nagging injury thats still not healed), starting back trovon riley is still suspended, and tony scheffler, whos the best tight end in the mac, got hurt against virginia and it out this week.

 

[Smitty]

gman, are you still liking ohio friday night? pitt's d looked pretty awful against nd. i see no reason ohio can't stay within 2 tds.

as always, thank you for your input.

 

[ajoytoy]

gl this season g

 

[ferdville]

I think I had your play (teaser) on UNLV game confused with somebody else. Sorry about that. Got to thinking about it and probably made an error. Again, sorry for talking without checking.

 

[hm23]

gman, CMU's Sneed has certainly been the silver lining in this sordid incident w/Seymour. And I agree with you that the Chips coach Kelly will get this team competing for the MAC title in a few years.

What is your take on WMU's D ? Do you think it is really going to be improved this yr.

UVA doesn't have much of pass game and RB Lundy was hurt in the opener. I think they'll have a tougher time containing Toledo's mulit-dimensional attack.

 

[spang]

Always good stuff G,

I know that you are about the last guy in the world to lat a boatload of points, but God help me, I played Purdue this week when it opened up at -34. I really do not see the Zips getting into the endzone vs a very very good Purdue D. I think this one is a massacre. Call it 48-3.. Also finding it dificult to resist Tressel in a big game at home. The guy just simply gets it done, time after time.

Good luck this week

 

[gman2]

spang:

i was tossing around the under in the akron game, mainly for the same reasons you like purdue. akron is gonna have major problems scoring. they got ripped a new ass by virginia last year and that was with frye. now, theyre gonna be playing a better defense... and trying to break in a new qb at the same time. i just dont see the zips scoring more than 10 points. so fundamentally, we definitely agree on that game. just dont know if i want to lay 5 scores with purdue but its definitely boilers or nothin. theres zero appealing about akron on saturday.

hm23:

the wmu defense will be improved, but thats all relative because it has nowhere to go but up after the way it got torched last year. theyve got a lot of young but talented guys, especially in the secondary. they have taken some significant hits to injury on their d-line and linebackers, and the season is only a week old, so depth is an issue.

 

[gman2]

toledo (-21 to -24)

the reason i post (-21 to -24) is twofold:

1) carib currently has a 21 on the game, and thats where i just played it. not sure why their number is so inconsistent with the other books, considering carib is about as vanilla a book as you'll find when it comes to their lines. they always mirror the line moves of the 'big books'. but olympic has a 22.5 and pinnacle has a 23 on this game. i gladly grabbed the 21

2) with the way i expect this game to play out, i think the number will end up being a moot point. id lay anything up to 24 on this one, so its not a play thats based on finding a particular number.

where to begin on this one. lets see....

* the western michigan defense has a lot of holes. they held up relatively well against virginia in their 31-19 loss, but in typical al groh fashion, the cavaliers seemed to play nfl-style football once they got their lead and then were content to just grind out the clock and get it over with. virginia was up 24-3 with 12:25 left in the 2nd quarter before putting it on cruise control. credit wmu for not quitting, but the cavs' kinda went through the motions after they went up by 21.

* the broncos are y-o-u-n-g in the secondary. both of their "florida freshmen" are manning the cornerback spots -- true freshman e.j.biggers and true freshman louis delmas. those guys have a lot of potential and, in time, are going to be very good. but gradkowski's eyes will be lighting up when he sees two 18-year old kids fresh out of high school trying to shut down the toledo spread attack.

* last year, toledo ran up 649 yards of total offense against western michigan. gradkowski didnt even play in the 4th quarter, yet finished 23/27 for 286 yards. the toledo offense had 36 first downs that game, and rushed for 350 yards as a team. it was just a methodical ass-beating. it wasnt like toledo hit a couple quick strikes. they ran 93 plays to western michigan's 60. they held the ball 38:59 -- 21:01.

* gardenweasel was correct in "thinking out loud" that toledo doesnt let up at home. they've averaged 42.7 ppg at home the last 2 years and their avg. margin of victory is 19.9 ppg.

* its gone a bit under the radar, but wmu has been hit hard by injuries and suspensions. they played last week without cubit at quarterback (though he might be back this week, but has been in and out of practice for about the last 2+ weeks), starting running back trovon riley is still serving a suspension (though bonds was solid when he filled in last week). they lost copeland and alvarez (two starters on defense) to injury. and in the virginia game, all-mac tight end tony scheffler dislocated two fingers and is out for this week's game. the scheffler injury is huge because it allows defenses to key on wide receive greg jennings until someone else steps up or scheffler returns. jennings is an absolute stud (he was one of the nations best last year, and caught 16 passes against virginia) but the other wmu receivers are young and everyone in the stadium knows that wmu's first,second, and third option is jennings. once wmu is back to 100% healthy (and suspension-free) on offense, they will have chance to be a solid unit.

in sum, this one boils down to:
* gradkowski, the first player in ncaa history to have a 70+% completion percentage in back-to-back years, getting a chance to pick apart a western michigan secondary that has two true freshman at cornerback.
* toledo's ability to run and pass. the rockets simply added another piece to their already deep backfield with richard davis, and gradkowski threw all of 3 incompletions vs wmu last year.
* expecting the almost inevitable regression from wmu after they played above their heads at virginia despite being hurt by injuries and suspension. broncos were 35 point underdogs and managed to stay within 12 points. toledo should do to wmu what virginia was EXPECTED to do. a lot of teams can overcome injuries and suspensions for one week, based on good coaching and an emotional high. but eventually, depth and talent come into play in the weeks that follow.... and toledo has a lot more talent and a lot more depth. and they traditionally lay ass beatings on inferior teams in the glass bowl. hate to lay a lot of points, but toledo should score 50 pts here.

 

[AR182]

gman,

i just put toledo in at -21....glad that you like it also.

do you have an opinion on the nw/n.ill game ?

solid info as usual.....

good luck.

 

[pt1gard]

thanx gman2, even bought a 1/2 pt to 20.5 ... great stuff as usual

 

[gman2]

smitty:

just got done doing some ohio university capping. i do think theyre the right side on friday night, but im not sure i can touch them. im just a little frightened by their offense. im confident that ohio's defense will play well, for two reasons -- 1, solich wont stand for a repeat performance of their debacle in northwestern, especially in OU's home opener .... and 2, pittsburgh is just a better overall matchup for ohio. the bobcats got smashed by bowling green and toledo last year so it was no surprise when northwestern's spread attack killed them this year. ohio is better suited to face more of a power attack. theyve got good linebackers and are a good fundamental team that way. i think theyll be able to keep palko relatively in check. it really comes down to ohio scoring enough points to win. their offense is really suspect, but they should be able to hang in against pitt on friday night on defense alone.

 

[vyrus858]

gman-

First of all I would like to start out by saying that i am one of your devout followers. I am looking at this bet and scratching my head. The thing that scares me about this bet is that gradkowski may not play the whole game. Similar to the virginia game western mich. could get back in the game for a late cover. I really like your picks and write-ups and told myself this week that I was going to make a LARGE wager on your play. I am just wondering if you think that this is one of those plays that can change a bankroll or if I should wait for a more solid play. Let me know what you think.

Thanks for you advice in advance.

Cyrus

 

[Robbo]

Its only one game man, no point over extending yourself so early in the football season.

 

[Scott4USC]

Good luck gman2. Solid write-ups! :clap:

vyrus858 I have a game pegged for week 4 that I am most likely going to pound. At least a 10 unit play. Save some cash for it! It will cover! adlock:

BTW, I like to put a big wager on a "weeknight" MAC game that G-Man2 posts.

 

[LifeLongLoser]

Scott I can't wait, for that lock!!!!!!!!!!!! What is it? At least give a hint.