need your assistance if you got a sec

[bcj920]

OK, I get lucky enough to be thrown into these situations once every other new moon, and I always come here for your help.

I'm an idiot parlay player that loses continuosly. Well wouldn't you know I put in a 5 teamer this morning and only have Seattle left on the ticket.

It was 97 to win 1455.00

Toronto
Toronto over
Rangers
Rangers over
Seattle -270

So what do I do. I'm down about 700.00 over the last two weeks.

So do I play about 300 on Tampa to get 810.00 just in case or do I ride her out.

I appreciate everyones opinion.

Bobby

 

[ddubs]

Depends if you want guaranteed money in your pocket or not.

If I have the same parlay, since it's a huge fav with a great chance of winning this game, I'd just ride it out and hope the lightening doesn't strike twice for TB to win back to back in Seattle.

But at +250, if you play 400 on TB to pay 1000. If TB wins you get 903, if Sea wins you get 1055. Not a bad return either way. AND this way it gets you out of the red.

JMHO. Wish I have the same problem.

 

[MadJack]

yup....i like your plan. worst thing that will happen is you get all your losses back for the last 2 weeks.

do it

 

[Antonio]

Bobby you hit it on the head. I would play Tb for 3 units. We can never guarantee a winner, even though Tonites Sea play looks about as solid as they may come, but its better to make a smaller profit either way in my opinion...but then again if ya hit it would make for a nice winner

 

[WHITEY]

TAMPA BAY +1.5 RUNS +120
WOULD BE A NICE KICK IN THE BOOKS NUTS WITH SEATTLE ALSO.

WHITEY

 

[ddubs]

I just read my own post and I sound like a greedy bastard.:jump:

Since you're down, HEDGE IT!!!! You'll be GUARANTEED to get back in the black.

Put 350, 400 on TB and don't have to sweat ONE SINGLE DROP!!!

 

[vchipsliu]

Hedge

Hedge

If I were you, I would just hedge.
But if you were up $700 instead of down $700,
there would be another story.

 

[bcj920]

Guys I appreciate your input. I agree, it would be hard to sleep tonight if Seattle didnt come in.

Damn, I got Madjack to help me.....thanks bud.

Again, thanks and I havent pulled the trigger yet but I just checked with the book and Seattle is now -300.

I've got to come out smelling like rose some how, becuase I'm leaving for New Mexico and Arizona, so that means crap tables in my near future.

Thanks again

bobby

 

[ddubs]

If you're gonna hedge it, keep waiting, this Seattle line is for sure gonna keep going up as the day goes on.

 

[no all]

thats a tough one. tampa has won 3 in a row.
I would go with tampa +1.5 but thats just me:shrug:
Good luck on whatever you decide on:thumb:

 

[THE HITMAN]

Good Luck..........if it was me, personally, I would hedge enough on TAM to get my $700 back..........plus $100. Then, as stated, you will win either way, no sweat. No, I dont like the Tampa play outright, but you can never go broke cashing winners. GL Whatever............THE HITMAN

 

[fletcher]

not to be blunt but you would be foolish not to hedge to get back what your down and then you are even.

i here shit all the time here when i say this if you have a secureed profit for the day with a hedge you take it.

the name of the game is cashing and making the most with the less risk as you can secure,in this case its 0 risk,it might cut into profit but if it doesnot win you will be deeper in the hole. and kicking yourself in the ass.

 

[shats]

great insight fletch

great insight fletch

After a long time and many losses I have finally learned this "hobby" of ours is a marathon NOT a sprint. Fletcher you hit the nail on the head, the key is to secure profit and limit risk. If you are up for the day, don't add plays just to try and have a big day. If you merely won $50 every day thats $1500 a month. Now most people don't get too excited to win fifty bucks, but 18k for a year sounds pretty godd dosen't it. Secure profit when you can no matter how little, every day if you can. That is my advice.

 

[Tito]

Bet the $300 on TB. It makes sense to be guaranteed to be even when you go to bed tonight.

Don't let the excitement of the big payday cloude your judgment.
Remember, the best way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in your pocket. You have a rare oppertunity to take advantage of it. Just do it.......................:Yep:

 

[TJBELL]

Well said by some good cappers!

bcj920, PLEASE TELL US YOU HEDGED!!!

 

[picasso]

I see this question posed periodically. The question that always comes to my mind is: if one is gonna hedge on the last play of a parlay, why include the last play in the parlay in the first place? Why not just go with the 4-teamer in this case?

Regarding the "guarantee a profit thing", I suppose from a psychological perspective, it's the right thing to do for some. By this I mean, let's say you let it ride and lose. If you're the type to bang your head against the wall with regret in not hedging because you just passed up a "sure profit", then I suppose you should do what's best for you. But, then again, as I said above, why bother including the 5th game in the parlay in the first place if you're always gonna hedge.

I should qualify my comments by saying that this assumes nothing has changed since the time you made the original parlay. By this I mean, if there was some late injury news, change in weather conditions, etc. that you were not aware of when you placed the bet, but now makes you question the pick, it's a whole different matter. But all things being equal, I stand by my comments.

One final comment regarding hedging, guaranteeing a win, etc. While one may lock up a profit by hedging, this does not come without a price. Basically, you're sacrificing expected value in exchange for locking up the win. In this case, you're essentially reducing your 5-team parlay to a 4-team parlay while betting both sides of the TB/Sea game, giving the house the difference in vig on that game (unless you were able to buy back at a greater price than you paid), manipulating the dollar amounts according to the trade-off you desire.

As it turned out, hedging paid off tonight. But let's remember, as a roughly -300 favorite, Sea is expected to win this game roughly 3 times in 4. So, around 75% of the time, you'll wish you hadn't hedged in this situation.

 

[ndnfan]

First let me say, I hope you did hedge. But Picasso is definately right on the thinking behind it. I know a lot of parlay betters that always hedge and when I ask them the question Picasso brought up "Why did you put that last team in the 5-team parlay if you're gonna hedge on the final 5th team, why not just play a 4-teamer?" Their answer....." I didn't expect to hit the first 4"

Heck, I even know a person that plays a lot of parlays and say he liked 4 teams, he would play a 5th team that was a late game just for the purpose of hedging!!.....Don't know what his logic was behind that :shrug:

I think though, for the most part, that a lot of people that play parlays aren't playing them to make money in the long haul, but rather as a "fun type" bet and thus they probably in reality really don't expect to hit it....so Yes... if it was a substantial amount I agree go ahead and hedge it and enjoy a "no sweat" win.