Jack... currently I'm mainly using just the Power Ratings, which I update daily and factor in BP use, current form, injuries, etc... I do allow for some variance in the line due to Top Notch Starters such as Schilling, Pedro, Clemens, Johnson, etc... but I don't eliminate plays solely based on that starter. I've seen too often, too great an emphasis on the starters, only to have them falter, or get attacked on the mound!, and there goes that play. I haven't been doing this very long, just a week, so I don't have alot of data to work with.
I have been using my power ratings as part of my plays, but a small part, all along and it seemed they were winning more consistently than my other methods. Whenever I went "against" my ratings, I lost more than I won. When I noticed that most were DOGS in the +140 or more range, I felt it was time to start tracking them.
In time, I hope to be able to widdle it down to 3 or 4 plays a day if possible, but not at the risk of throwing away plays. Once my system hits a skid, well, if it does, but I'm sure that day is coming, I will then work on refining it.
This past week I listed all the plays that the power ratings came up with, some, such as CINCY beating STL in game 1, DET winning game 1, and PITT beating ARIZ, would probably have been tossed due to other factors such as current form, starter matchups, etc... but because I've factored in the current form into the ratings, I felt it was accounted for, therefore did not eliminate them. CINCY at home vs RH starters were down -2720 based on $100/unit going into yesterday's game, yet they got the cash. So, I have to wait until more results are accumulated before I make adjustments.
As the old saying goes... if it ain't broke, don't fix it!
