the last 6 games between ND-Mich, the home team has won. Last time they faced each other at the Big House, Mich won 38-0. But that was with a sr. QB John Navarre and a sr. RB in Chris Perry and a ND team that was a mess.
I am a Michigan fan but rarely bet them, b/c they have trouble covering spreads, due to the fact they always seem to play to their level of competition. Lloyd Carr never lets me down, with his 9-2, 8-3 seasons b/c I expect it. The team is always loaded with talent probably top 5 talent wise every year. But there always seems to be something missing, like they don't go after IT like an Ohio State or Iowa does.
Offense is explosive, WR Breaston is overrated IMO as a receiver, WR Avant is underrated. Henne is cool and calm in the pocket, not afraid to make a mistake and won't harp on it if he does. RB Hart is a tough quick runner with one of the best O-Lines in the country. If he were to go down, they have a more than capable backup in true frosh Kevin Grady. Spitting image of Hart, just 20lbs heavier.
However, Defense is there glaring weakness. The line (supposed to be there strength) gave up over over 200 yds on the ground, not good considering they lost their top cover man in marlin jackson and top safety in earnest shazor to the NFL.
ND does play them tough and are now sipping the Charlie Weis kool aid. Michigan will come to play and will play better than last week. However if Darius Walker gets moving early, Brady Quinn will be able to move the sticks thru the air.
For Mich to cover they will need to bottle up Darius and pressure Quinn into making mistakes.
For ND to Cover, they will need to keep Michigan to their short passing game and avoid the long ball which Henne likes to throw.
I will not touch this game, but will be rooting for MICH., if anything, I think the line could move to -6 maybe -5.5.
