NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 10
Thursday game
Baltimore (6-2) @ Miami (1-7)
? This is Ravens? first road game since October 3rd.
? Baltimore won five of last six games, scoring 29.5 ppg.
? Ravens gave up 33-41 points in their two losses.
? Baltimore is 4-1 in games decided by 6 or less points.
? Last three years, Ravens are 8-6 ATS as home favorites.
? Baltimore trailed at halftime in three of last four games.
? Last three games, opponents are 12-39 on third down
? Three of their last four games went over.
? Miami lost seven of last seven games, giving up 28.3 ppg.
? Miami is 1-5 ATS the last six weeks.
? Dolphins scored 17 points in both their wins.
? Miami turned ball over 10 times in last three games (-3)
? Miami has given up 50 plays of 20+ yards, has only 30 themselves.
? Last six years, Miami is 14-10-1 ATS as home underdogs.
? Last eight games, Dolphins were outscored 137-71 in 2nd half.
? Three of last four Dolphin games went over the total.
? Baltimore won eight of last nine series games.
? Ravens won four of last five visits here (5-0 ATS)
? Over is 5-1-1 last seven series games.
Sunday games
Jacksonville (2-6) @ Indianapolis (4-5)
? Jaguars won two of last three games, after an 0-20 skid.
? Jacksonville already has five losses by 10+ points.
? Jaguars have one TD on their last 18 drives.
? Jacksonville is minus-9 in turnovers (4-13)
? Last four years, Jaguars are 8-13-2 ATS as road underdogs.
? Last three years, Jacksonville is 14-20 ATS overall as dogs.
? Jaguars converted 28 of 94 third down plays (29.8%).
? Six of their last seven games stayed under the total.
? Colts covered five of their last six games.
? Indy is 14-10-2 last 26 games as a home favorite.
? Last six weeks, Colts outscored opponents 85-45 in first half.
? Last four games, Colts outscored opponents 69-46 in second half.
? Colts have 19 takeaways in last eight games (+10)
? Last five years, Colts are 7-11-2 ATS in AFC South home games.
? Last 11 years, Indy is 5-2-1 ATS as double digit favorites.
? Five of their last six games went over the total.
? Home side won last six series games.
? Jaguars are 3-1-2 ATS in last six visits to Indy.
? Over is 4-1 in last five series games.
Cleveland (5-4) @ New England (5-4)
? Cleveland lost three of its last five games.
? Browns allowed 14-15-16 points in last three games.
? Mayfield threw for 9.0 yards/attempt in first post-Beckham game.
? Cleveland outscored foes 42-12 in last 2:00 of each half.
? Cleveland is 1-3 in games decided by 5 or fewer points.
? Browns are 11-9-1 ATS last 21 games with spread of 3 or less.
? Cleveland is 8-12 ATS in last 20 road games.
? Over is 3-1 in Browns? four road games.
? New England won four of last five games, scoring 31.8 ppg.
? Patriots are 1-4 SU at home, with only win over Jets.
? Since 2013, New England is 43-23-3 ATS at home.
? Patriots are 4-10 ATS in last 14 games with spread of 3 or less points.
? Patriots are +8 in turnovers in their wins, minus-6 in losses.
? New England has 13 takeaways in last five games (+6)
? Last five games, New England had 26 plays of 20+ yards (+5).
? Four of last five Patriot games went over the total.
? Patriots won seven of last eight series games.
? Browns covered once in last five trips to Foxboro.
Atlanta (4-4) @ Dallas (6-2)
? Atlanta won/covered last four games away from home.
? Atlanta?s last six games were all decided by 7 or less points.
? Falcons led their last six games at halftime.
? Atlanta has been outscored 146-82 in second half.
? Last three years, Atlanta is 9-7 ATS as a road underdog.
? Falcons are 3-1 in games decided by 4 or fewer points.
? Atlanta is 12-16 ATS in last 28 games coming off a win.
? Over is 4-1 in last five Atlanta games.
? Last two games, Cowboys were outscored 26-3 in first half.
? Dallas is 7-1 ATS; they gave up 31-30 points in losses.
? Cowboys have no takeaways in last two games (-4).
? Last three years, Dallas is 8-10 ATS coming off a loss.
? Last six years, Dallas is 16-15-1 ATS as home favorites.
? Cowboys are 3-11-1 ATS last 15 games as non-divisional HF.
? Over is 5-3 in Cowboys? games this season.
? NFC East home teams are 5-10 ATS in non-divisional games.
? Last time these teams met, Dallas DC Quinn was Atlanta?s head coach.
? Cowboys won last two series games, 40-39/22-19.
? Falcons covered three of last four visits to Dallas.
Buffalo (5-3) @ NJ Jets (2-6)
? Bills lost two of last three games, after a 4-1 start.
? All five of their wins are by 15+ points.
? Buffalo has given up 11 TD?s on 81 drives.
? Bills are 6-5 ATS last ten games as road favorites.
? Last six games, Bills are +11 in turnovers.
? Buffalo outscored first seven foes 120-53 in first half.
? Last two weeks, Buffalo didn?t score first half TD.
? Over is 7-3-2 in Bills? last 12 road games.
? Jets have used three QB?s last three games; who starts here?
? Jets gave up 54-31-45 points in last three games.
? Last two games, Jets scored eight TD?s on 21 drives.
? Jets have been outscored 51-14 in first quarter, 151-44 in first half.
? Last three years, Jets are 10-6 ATS as home underdogs.
? Last four years, Jets are 13-24 ATS coming off a loss.
? Last five Jet games went over the total.
? Rookie QB?s struggle; they?re 13-25 ATS so far this season.
? Underdogs are 10-3 ATS last 14 series games (one pick ?em).
? Buffalo won four of last five series games.
? Bills are 6-6 ATS in last dozen meetings played here.
New Orleans (5-3) @ Tennessee (7-2)
? Siemian was 25-41/249, two TD?s in his first start for Saints.
? Saints won three of last four games, scoring 26.8 ppg.
? New Orleans held seven of eight opponents under 100 yards rushing.
? Underdogs won six of their eight games SU (7-1 ATS).
? Saints are 5-3-1 ATS last nine games vs AFC opponents.
? Last three years, Saints are 7-1-1 ATS coming off a loss.
? New Orleans has 19 plays of 20+ yards, their opponents have 37.
? Four of their last five games went over the total.
? Tennessee won/covered seven of last eight games, scoring 30.5 ppg.
? First six weeks, Titans ran for 165 yards/game; last three, 88.3 ypg.
? Titans have eight takeaways in last three games.
? Last six weeks, Titans are +7 in turnovers.
? Last three years, Tennessee is 8-7 ATS as home favorites.
? Titans are 9-5 ATS last 14 games vs NFC opponents.
? Tennessee has only four TD plays longer than 18 yards.
? Over is 4-2 in Tennessee?s last six games.
? Road team won last four series games.
? Saints won 38-28/22-17 in last two visits to Nashville.
Tampa Bay (6-2) @ Washington (2-6)
? Bucs won four of last five games, scoring 31.4 ppg.
? Buccaneers have 32 TD?s on 86 drives this season.
? Last seven games, Tampa Bay is +7 in turnovers.
? Last four games, Bucs scored 6.14 points/red zone drive.
? Last four games, opponents converted 14-51 on third down.
? Over is 5-2-1 in Tampa Bay games this season.
? Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in last six post-bye games.
? NFC South road favorites are 3-6 ATS in non-divisional games.
? Washington lost its last four games, scoring 11 ppg in last three.
? Washington has covered once in eight games this year.
? Last three games, Washington was outscored 38-10 in second half.
? Washington opponents converted 65-1115 on third down (56.5%).
? Washington is 0-4 ATS at home this season.
? Last 2+ years, Washington is 8-17-1 ATS coming off a loss.
? Last three Washington games stayed under the total.
? NFC East home teams are 5-10 ATS in non-divisional games.
? Washington is 2-9 ATS in last 11 post-bye games.
? Underdogs are 6-0-1 ATS in last seven meetings.
? Buccaneers are 3-1-1 ATS in last five visits here.
? Under is 5-2-1 in last eight series games.
Detroit (0-8) @ Pittsburgh (5-3)
? Detroit is winless, has gone WLWLWLW vs spread.
? Last six games, Lions were outscored 81-22 in first half.
? Detroit has four TD?s on its last 40 drives.
? Lions have one takeaway in last three games (minus-3)
? Detroit gave up at least 7.1 yards/pass attempt in every game.
? Last three years, Detroit is 8-9-1 ATS as road underdogs.
? Five of last six Detroit games stayed under the total.
? Lions lost twice on last-second FG?s, both 50+ yards.
? Steelers won last four games, giving up 19 ppg.
? Short week for Pittsburgh after their Monday night win.
? Pitt was outgained 414-280 Monday, gave up special teams TD
? Last seven games, Steelers were outscored 101-66 in second half.
? Underdogs are 5-0 ATS in Pittsburgh home games this year.
? Last five years, Steelers are 13-19 ATS as home favorites.
? Last seven years, Steelers are 16-11 ATS vs NFC opponents.
? Five of eight Steeler games stayed under the total.
? Steelers won last five series games, four by 8+ points.
? Lions are 1-2 ATS in last three visits to Heinz Field.
? Four of last five series games went over.
Minnesota (3-5) @ LA Chargers (5-3)
? Seven of Vikings? eight games were decided by 7 or fewer points.
? Vikings lost last two games, by total of seven points.
? Minnesota is +6 in turnovers last three games (even first 5 games)
? Last eight years, Vikings are 20-10 ATS vs AFC opponents.
? Minnesota is 11-13 ATS last 24 games as a road underdog.
? Minnesota has been outscored 70-19 in last 2:00 of each half.
? Four of Vikings? last six games stayed under the total.
? NFC North road underdogs are 7-3 ATS in non-divisional games.
? Chargers lost two of last three games, after a 4-1 start.
? Six of their eight games were decided by 6 or fewer points.
? Last four games, Chargers allowed 183.3 rushing yards/game.
? Last four years, LA is 5-15-1 ATS as home favorites.
? Bolts are 9-5-1 ATS last 15 games vs NFC opponents.
? Chargers are 6-8-1 ATS last 15 games coming off a win.
? Over is 3-1 in last four Charger games.
? AFC West non-divisional road favorites are 4-2 ATS.
? Minnesota won last two series games, 39-10/31-14.
? Vikings covered last four meetings.
? Home side won four of last five series games.
Carolina (4-5) @ Arizona (8-1)
? Carolina lost five of last six games after a 3-0 start.
? Carolina is 0-6 if it allows more than 14 points.
? Panthers scored one TD on their last 32 drives.
? Panthers are 8-2 ATS last ten games as road underdogs.
? Carolina outscored opponents 94-66 in first half.
? Last six games, Panthers were outscored 93-45 in second half.
? Under is 7-2 in Carolina games this season.
? NFC South road underdogs are 4-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
? Arizona won eight of first nine games (7-2 ATS).
? Cardinals covered six of their last seven games.
? Backup QB McCoy played well LW; check Murray?s status.
? Last seven years, Arizona is 11-20 ATS as a home favorite.
? Cardinals have 33 TD?s on 90 drives this season.
? Arizona has 202 points on 35 drives to red zone (5.76)
? Arizona has 41 plays of 20+ yards; their opponents have 23.
? Under is 3-0 in last three Arizona home games.
? Carolina won nine of last 12 series games.
? Underdogs are 3-1-1 ATS last five series games.
? Panthers are 4-1-1 ATS in last six trips to Arizona.
Seattle (3-5) @ Green Bay (7-1)
? Wilson (finger) returns here, for first time since Week 5.
? Wilson played his last year of college ball at Wisconsin.
? Seahawks lost five of their last seven games overall.
? Seattle is 11-4-1 ATS last 16 games as a dog, 3-1 TY.
? Seattle is 6-3 ATS in last nine post-bye games.
? Seattle has 37 plays of 20+ yards; they?ve given up 24.
? Last four games, opponents converted 16-65 on third down.
? Three of Seahawks? last four games stayed under total.
? Rodgers? (COVID) status for this game is still unclear.
? Green Bay won seven of last eight games (7-0-1 ATS)
? Packers lost 13-7 at Arrowhead LW, in Love?s first NFL start.
? Last three years, Green Bay is 13-6 ATS as a home favorite (3-0 HF).
? Green Bay averaged 6.5 or less yards/pass attempt 5 of last 6 games.
? Last three years, Pack is 7-0 ATS coming off a loss.
? Last six Packer games stayed under the total.
? NFC North home favorites are 4-1 ATS in non-divisional games.
? Home side won last eight series games.
? Seahawks are 0-7-1 ATS last eight visits to Lambeau.
? Last time Seattle covered here was 2003.
Philadelphia (3-6) @ Denver (5-4)
? Eagles lost six of their last eight games.
? Philly is 3-1 if it allows 18 or less points, 0-5 if it allows more.
? Last four years, Eagles are 6-10 ATS as road underdogs.
? Eagles are 6-13 ATS last 19 games with spread of 3 or less points.
? Philly had 236-176 YR last two games (98.6 ypg previous five games)
? Last eight weeks, Eagles were outscored 108-70 in first half.
? Last three weeks, Philly converted 19-35 on third down.
? Last three Eagle games went over the total.
? NFC East teams are 4-8 ATS in non-divisional home games.
? Denver won its last two games, giving up 10-16 points.
? Denver gave up 16 or less points in its wins, 25.3 ppg in losses.
? Last four years, Broncos are 4-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
? Denver has three takeaway in last five games (-5).
? Last two games, Denver converted 15-28 third down plays.
? Seven of nine Denver games stayed under the total.
? Broncos are 7-10-3 ATS last 20 games with spread of 3 or less points.
? AFC West non-divisional home favorites are 3-9 ATS.
? Home side won last four series games.
? Eagles lost 52-20/49-21 in last two visits to Denver.
? Last four series games went over (average total, 68.3).
Kansas City (5-4) @ Las Vegas (5-3)
? Chiefs scored only 12 ppg last three games.
? Kansas City averaged only 4.7/5.2/4.2 yards/pass in those games.
? Chiefs have only three TD?s on their last 28 drives.
? Chiefs turned ball over 19 times in last eight games (-11)
? Kansas City is 0-4 ATS at home this season.
? KC has 31 plays of 20+ yards, their opponents have 41.
? Chiefs? last four games stayed under the total.
? Chiefs are 14-4 ATS last 18 AFC West road games.
? Raiders scored 14-9-16 points in losses, 26+ in wins.
? Last five years, Raiders are 10-8-1 ATS as home dogs.
? Raiders led last three games at halftime.
? Las Vegas has allowed 7+ yards pass attempt once, in Week 2.
? Raiders are 8-4 ATS in AFC West home games.
? Raiders converted 11 of last 32 third down plays.
? Las Vegas outgained Giants 403-245 LW, were awful in red zone.
? Raiders had ball in red zone six times, scored only 16 points.
? Kansas City won 13 of last 16 meetings in this rivalry.
? Chiefs are 1-3 ATS last four visits to Las Vegas/Oakland.
? Chiefs scored 30+ points in six of last seven meetings.
Monday?s game
LA Rams (7-1) @ San Francisco (3-5)
? Rams won four of their last five games.
? Rams are 4-0 on road this year, scoring 32.3 ppg.
? Last five games, LA converted only 21-60 on 3rd down
? Over is 6-3 in Rams? games this season.
? Last three years, Rams are 9-5 ATS as road favorites.
? Under McVay, Rams are 8-4-1 ATS in NFC West road tilts.
? Last five games, LA is +5 in turnovers.
? NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 3-6 ATS.
? 49ers lost five of their last six games.
? 49ers are 0-4 SU at home, giving up 29.8 ppg.
? All three of their wins came on road (Lions/Eagles/Bears)
? Thru eight games, 49ers are minus-10 in turnovers.
? Last four years, 49ers are 4-3 ATS s home underdogs.
? Last four games, SF converted 14-56 third down plays.
? Last five years, 49ers are 4-9-1 ATS in NFC West home games.
? 49ers? last three games went over the total.
? 49ers won last four meetings; they were underdog in last three.
? Under McVay, Rams are 2-2 ATS in Santa Clara.
? Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
