Betting Recap - Week 12
Dan Dobish
Overall Notes
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Raiders +7 (ML +260) at Cowboys, 36-33
Giants +4 (ML +175) vs. Eagles, 13-7
Jets +3 (ML +125) at Texans, 21-14
Broncos +2.5 (ML +130) vs. Chargers, 28-13
The largest favorites to cover
Bills (-7) at Saints, 31-6
Patriots (-7) vs. Titans, 36-13
49ers (-4) vs. Vikings, 34-26
Bengals (-3.5) vs. Steelers, 41-10
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week
The Carolina Panthers-Miami Dolphins (40.5) saw a total of 31 points scored in the first half, and OVER bettors probably thought they were on the way to easy street. However, we saw a total of just six points in the third quarter, and a missed extra point.
With 10:58 to go in the final quarter, the Dolphins saw a 46-yard field goal from Jason Sanders to make it 30-10 in favor of the home side. The Panthers elected to bench QB Cam Newton in the fourth quarter, after he completed just 5-of-21 passes for 92 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions. The 23.8 completion percentage was the worst by an NFL player with at least 20 attempts in a single game since 2004.
It looked like the scoring was done, as we didn't have any points until 3:41 in regulation. UNDER bettors thought they were going to get a miracle result, but another Sanders field goal, this time from 33 yards out, did them in, as the Dolphins put a bow on the scoring at 33-10, hitting the OVER on a meaningless field goal in terms of the overall result.
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II
The Cleveland Browns (+3, +140 ML)-Baltimore Ravens game was a bummer if you were a side bettors and/or a money line bettor.
Things were going tremendously well for Cleveland side bettors, as Baltimore held a 6-3 advantage at halftime. It probably should have been 6-6, too, but Chase McLaughlin missed a field goal in the first quarter for the visitors. But those who backed the Browns saw the defense pick off QB Lamar Jackson three times in the first 30 minutes.
In the third quarter, Jackson hit TE Mark Andrews for a 13-yard touchdown, opening the biggest lead of the game at 13-3, but the Browns came right back. Near the end of the third, QB Baker Mayfield hit TE David Njoku on a sliding catch into the end zone to slice the lead to 13-10.
The Browns picked off Jackson a fourth time in the second half, and the Ravens were only able to muster three points in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately for those backing the Browns, they got nothing. With 70 seconds left in regulation, Justin Tucker banged home a 49-yard field goal to make it 16-10, giving Baltimore the cover. Mayfield and the offense had a chance, but they turned it over on downs.
Going Streaking
-- The Green Bay Packers picked up a 36-28 win over the Los Angeles Rams, improving to 10-1 ATS across the past 11 games overall. They're also an impressive 5-0 SU/ATS in five games at Lambeau Field.
-- The Jacksonville Jaguars have cashed the UNDER in six consecutive games, including 3-0 in the past three at home.
-- The Denver Broncos have hit the UNDER in five straight outings, while going 9-2 overall in 11 games this season.
Total Recall
The lowest total on the board in Week 12 was the Panthers-Dolphins (40.5) game, and we told you how that one end. Badly for UNDER bettors. The second-lowest was on Thanksgiving in the Chicago Bears-Detroit Lions (41.5) battle. We had seven or fewer points scored in three of the four quarters, and just 30 total points for an easy UNDER play in the early window on Turkey Day.
The next lowest total on the board was the game between the Tennessee Titans-New England Patriots (43), and we saw 49 points in the game, mostly by the Patriots. They won the game 36-13, but OVER bettors had to wait until the final 6:09 for the last 10 points, each by the home side.
On the flip side, the highest total on the board for Week 12 was in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers-Indianapolis Colts (53) game. It didn't start out looking like a high-scoring battle. The Colts led just 3-0 after the first 15 minutes. However, we saw 35 total points in the fourth, as OVER bettors were quickly snapped on track. We had 31 more total points in the second half, and Indy was threatening to tie it up late, but came up short as time ran out. Still, there were 69 total points on the board, which was more than enough.
In the primetime games, the UNDER was 2-0, with the MNF game between the Seattle Seahawks-Washington Football Team (47) still pending. The UNDER is now 18-14-1 (56.3%) through 33 primetime games. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.
Looking Ahead to Week 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Buccaneers (8-3) and Falcons (5-6) meet for the second time this season. Tampa Bay scored a season-high 48 points in the first meeting, a 23-point win over the Falcons as 13.5-point favorites as the OVER (52) easily cashed.
The Buccaneers are 1-5 ATS in the past six road games, while going 1-6 ATS in the past seven as a road favorite. For the Falcons, they have managed to cover just twice in the past seven NFC South Division battles, while going 1-4 ATS in the past five at home.
The OVER is a whopping 17-5 in the past 22 NFC South Division games, while going 10-1 in the past 11 meetings with the Falcons, including 5-0 in the past five in Atlanta.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
The Ravens (8-3) and Steelers (5-5) square off for the first of two meetings this season. Baltimore enters on a 3-0 UNDER run, averaging just 14.0 PPG while allowing 15.0 PPG in those three outings. The Ravens have covered in consecutive games for the first time this season.
The Steelers are also skidding, losing two straight, while going 1-3 ATS across the past four outings. A 41-10 beatdown from the Bengals in Cincinnati in Week 12 will have fans and bettors a bit shook. The OVER is 3-1 in the previous four outings, as Pittsburgh's defense has yielded 41, 41 and 27 in three of the past four outings, with 16 points allowed to the Detroit Lions in a Week 10 tie.
The Ravens are 5-1-1 ATS in the past seven trips to Pittsburgh, with the road team covering in seven of the past nine meetings in the series. The UNDER is 4-0 in the past four road outings for the Ravens, while the UNDER is 7-3 in the past 10 as a home 'dog for the Steelers.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
The 49ers (6-5) and Seahawks (3-7) meet in a key NFL West battle. San Francisco has won and covered three straight games, going for 34, 30 and 31 to get themselves into position for a playoff spot. One thing to watch closely heading into next Sunday is the health of star WR Deebo Samuel (groin). He left Sunday's game in the second half due to injury, and was unable to return.
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in the past five games overall, but they're just 4-10 ATS in the past 14 games as a favorite. The OVER is 4-1 in Frisco's past five as a favorite, while the UNDER is 5-2 in their past seven inside the division.
The Niners haven't had a lot of success in this series, going 5-14-1 ATS in the past 20 meetings, while going just 2-7-1 ATS in the past 10 trips to the Pacific Northwest.
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The Broncos (6-5) and Chiefs (7-4) square off on Sunday Night Football. The Broncos have played their way into the thick of the AFC West Division race with a 28-13 win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 12. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are coming off a bye, and still remain in first place by a full game over everyone else in the division.
Denver enters on a 5-0 UNDER run, and it has cashed in three of the past four against the number. Kansas City won 19-9 over Dallas before the bye, cashing as 2.5-point favorites. The Chiefs have covered consecutive games for the first time all season, while the UNDER is 5-1 across the past six games overall.
The Chiefs have dominated this series of late, going 9-2 ATS in the past 11 meetings, although the road team is 6-1 ATS across the past seven in this series. The UNDER is also 4-1-1 in the previous six meetings.
