- Sep 10, 2018
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Betting Recap - Week 15
Dan Dobish
Overall Notes
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Lions +13 (ML +550) vs. Cardinals, 30-12
Saints +11.5 (ML +450) at Buccaneers, 9-0 (SNF)
Texans +6 (ML +220) at Jaguars, 30-16
Bengals +3 (ML +130) at Broncos, 15-10
The largest favorites to cover
Bills (-14.5) vs. Panthers, 31-14
Cowboys (-11.5) at Giants, 21-6
49ers (-8.5) vs. Falcons, 31-13
Chiefs (-3) at Chargers, 34-28 (TNF)
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week
The Green Bay Packers-Baltimore Ravens game was in the national late window, and expected to be a good one even though QB Lamar Jackson (ankle) was inactive. However, QB Tyler Huntley has held down the fort admirably when called upon in Chicago and in this one.
The game was tied 14-14 at halftime, and the Packers held a narrow 21-17 lead heading into the final quarter. The Packers (-9.5) were never covering at any point in the first three quarters, but they went ahead 28-17 on a touchdown strike to WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling from QB Aaron Rodgers early in the fourth quarter. With that TD, Rodgers tied Brett Favre for the most touchdown throws in franchise history.
The Packers drove into the red zone, but the offense bogged down with a chance to make it a three-score game. Instead, they tacked on a field goal with 9:26 to go, leading 31-17. Huntley drove them down the field, cutting the lead to 31-24 with 4:47 to go. It got worse if you were laying the nine points. Huntley ran another one in with 42 seconds left, cutting it to 31-30. Like in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh elected to go for two, and again the Ravens came up short, losing 31-30.
Green Bay's failures in the red zone in the fourth quarter made it a bummer if you were laying the nine. And Baltimore's failure on the potential go-ahead two-point conversion crushed money line bettors. The only real happy people were those catching the points at home, and OVER bettors, who were golden early in the fourth.
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II
The Atlanta Falcons-San Francisco 49ers (48) game was a punch in the face if you were holding an OVER ticket. I'd personally be fuming if I were on the side of this lost ticket.
Atlanta turned over San Francisco on the opening kickoff, and appeared to have a Cordarrelle Patterson touchdown. However, review wiped out the fourth-down touchdown, giving the 49ers the ball on downs. It was called a touchdown on the field, and most angles on the FOX telecast didn't really seem to show conclusive evidence otherwise, but New York saw it different. Remember that.
The 49ers led 17-10 at halftime, and they held a 31-13 lead after three quarters, and it appeared that an OVER result was inevitable. But in the final 15 minutes, the two offenses forgot to score. Both teams posted a goose egg, and OVER bettors were left shaking their heads.
Total Recall
The lowest total on the board in Week 15 was the Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars (40) game, a battle of 2-11 teams at TIAA Bank Field in Northeast Florida.
Jacksonville entered the day on an 8-0 UNDER run, while hitting the UNDER in 11 of the past 12 games dating back to their first OVER result, a 37-21 loss at Houston. Guess what, the Texans did it again. Houston picked up the 30-16 win over Jacksonville, hitting the OVER with 2:22 to go in regulation on a 43-yard touchdown strike from QB Davis Mills to WR Brandin Cooks.
The second-lowest total on the board is the Las Vegas Raiders-Cleveland Browns (41) game, which was moved from Saturday to Monday due to a COVID outbreak within the Browns organization.
As far as the highest total, the books were expecting a shootout in the Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Chargers (54) game on Thursday night, and the AFC West combatants did not disappoint. It actually wasn't going terribly well, with the Chiefs trailing 14-13 heading to the fourth quarter, with the teams exactly halfway to an OVER. But the teams put up 29 combined points in the fourth, as the Chiefs forced overtime. No matter who won, they Chiefs caused the game to go OVER. They ended up picking up the touchdown in overtime for the win.
In the primetime games, the OVER-UNDER split 1-1, with the MNF game between the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (44.5) still pending. The UNDER is now 23-18-1 (56.1%) through 42 primetime games. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.
Looking Ahead to Week 16
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Giants (4-10) and Eagles (6-7) play for the second time in five weeks, this time at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The last meeting was a defensive battle, with the Giants coming out on top by a 13-7 score as four-point underdogs. Philly will be looking to return the favor, but they're playing on a quick turnaround after facing Washington Tuesday due to a COVID outbreak within the WFT room.
The Giants defense stepped up in Week 15, holding the Cowboys to just 21 points, but the offense was horrible. QB Mike Glennon tossed three interceptions, and he was pulled in favor of QB Jake Fromm. The UNDER is now 7-1-1 in the past nine games for the G-Men.
The Giants have covered three in a row in this series, and seven of the past nine. The UNDER is 3-0 in the previous three meetings, and 5-1 in the past six in the series, too.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Bills (7-7) and Patriots (9-5) renew acquaintances. The teams just met on Dec. 6 at Highmark Stadium in western New York, and it was a frigid, windy and icy night, with the Patriots scratching out a 14-10 win in the elements. You'll remember QB Mac Jones threw just three passes in the victory.
The Buffalo offense has averaged 29.0 PPG in the past two games since, including a 31-14 win over the Panthers as the OVER hit for the second straight outing.
The Bills hold a 3-2-1 ATS in the past six meetings, with the UNDER 5-2 in the previous seven. That includes a 38-9 win by the Bills in Foxboro last season on Dec. 28, 2020.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Ravens (8-6) face the Bengals (8-6) looking for a little redemption. And Blaitmore is also looking to pull out of a nosedive, as they have dropped three in a row to lose control of the AFC North Division lead.
The Bengals went into Charm City and pounded the Ravens back in Week 7 by a 41-17, and that was with a healthy Jackson under center. Rookie WR Ja'Marr Chase introduced himself to the rivalry with a career-high 201 receiving yards.
A few things to watch here are the status of Jackson, while Bengals RB Joe Mixon (leg) also left Sunday's game in Denver late due to a leg injury.
While Baltimore lost the first meeting this season, the Ravens are 3-1 ATS in the past four meetings.
Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The Washington Football Team (6-7) and Cowboys (10-4) get together on Sunday night, and it's a quick turnaround for WFT after playing Tuesday due to a COVID outbreak on the team.
WFT came up short in the first meeting in Week 14 against the Cowboys, 27-20. Washington was down 27-6, but they fought back to make things interesting. It was actually a bad beat for OVER bettors, as they came up just short.
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in the past six meetings, and 6-3 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series, including 3-1 ATS in the past four at home against Washington. As far as the total, the OVER is 7-3 in the past 10 in this series.
Dan Dobish
Overall Notes
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Lions +13 (ML +550) vs. Cardinals, 30-12
Saints +11.5 (ML +450) at Buccaneers, 9-0 (SNF)
Texans +6 (ML +220) at Jaguars, 30-16
Bengals +3 (ML +130) at Broncos, 15-10
The largest favorites to cover
Bills (-14.5) vs. Panthers, 31-14
Cowboys (-11.5) at Giants, 21-6
49ers (-8.5) vs. Falcons, 31-13
Chiefs (-3) at Chargers, 34-28 (TNF)
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week
The Green Bay Packers-Baltimore Ravens game was in the national late window, and expected to be a good one even though QB Lamar Jackson (ankle) was inactive. However, QB Tyler Huntley has held down the fort admirably when called upon in Chicago and in this one.
The game was tied 14-14 at halftime, and the Packers held a narrow 21-17 lead heading into the final quarter. The Packers (-9.5) were never covering at any point in the first three quarters, but they went ahead 28-17 on a touchdown strike to WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling from QB Aaron Rodgers early in the fourth quarter. With that TD, Rodgers tied Brett Favre for the most touchdown throws in franchise history.
The Packers drove into the red zone, but the offense bogged down with a chance to make it a three-score game. Instead, they tacked on a field goal with 9:26 to go, leading 31-17. Huntley drove them down the field, cutting the lead to 31-24 with 4:47 to go. It got worse if you were laying the nine points. Huntley ran another one in with 42 seconds left, cutting it to 31-30. Like in Pittsburgh a few weeks ago, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh elected to go for two, and again the Ravens came up short, losing 31-30.
Green Bay's failures in the red zone in the fourth quarter made it a bummer if you were laying the nine. And Baltimore's failure on the potential go-ahead two-point conversion crushed money line bettors. The only real happy people were those catching the points at home, and OVER bettors, who were golden early in the fourth.
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week - Part II
The Atlanta Falcons-San Francisco 49ers (48) game was a punch in the face if you were holding an OVER ticket. I'd personally be fuming if I were on the side of this lost ticket.
Atlanta turned over San Francisco on the opening kickoff, and appeared to have a Cordarrelle Patterson touchdown. However, review wiped out the fourth-down touchdown, giving the 49ers the ball on downs. It was called a touchdown on the field, and most angles on the FOX telecast didn't really seem to show conclusive evidence otherwise, but New York saw it different. Remember that.
The 49ers led 17-10 at halftime, and they held a 31-13 lead after three quarters, and it appeared that an OVER result was inevitable. But in the final 15 minutes, the two offenses forgot to score. Both teams posted a goose egg, and OVER bettors were left shaking their heads.
Total Recall
The lowest total on the board in Week 15 was the Houston Texans-Jacksonville Jaguars (40) game, a battle of 2-11 teams at TIAA Bank Field in Northeast Florida.
Jacksonville entered the day on an 8-0 UNDER run, while hitting the UNDER in 11 of the past 12 games dating back to their first OVER result, a 37-21 loss at Houston. Guess what, the Texans did it again. Houston picked up the 30-16 win over Jacksonville, hitting the OVER with 2:22 to go in regulation on a 43-yard touchdown strike from QB Davis Mills to WR Brandin Cooks.
The second-lowest total on the board is the Las Vegas Raiders-Cleveland Browns (41) game, which was moved from Saturday to Monday due to a COVID outbreak within the Browns organization.
As far as the highest total, the books were expecting a shootout in the Kansas City Chiefs-Los Angeles Chargers (54) game on Thursday night, and the AFC West combatants did not disappoint. It actually wasn't going terribly well, with the Chiefs trailing 14-13 heading to the fourth quarter, with the teams exactly halfway to an OVER. But the teams put up 29 combined points in the fourth, as the Chiefs forced overtime. No matter who won, they Chiefs caused the game to go OVER. They ended up picking up the touchdown in overtime for the win.
In the primetime games, the OVER-UNDER split 1-1, with the MNF game between the Minnesota Vikings-Chicago Bears (44.5) still pending. The UNDER is now 23-18-1 (56.1%) through 42 primetime games. In 2020, the UNDER was 28-19-1 (59.5%) in 48 primetime contests. In 2019, the UNDER went 31-17-1 (64.6%) during primetime games.
Looking Ahead to Week 16
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Giants (4-10) and Eagles (6-7) play for the second time in five weeks, this time at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The last meeting was a defensive battle, with the Giants coming out on top by a 13-7 score as four-point underdogs. Philly will be looking to return the favor, but they're playing on a quick turnaround after facing Washington Tuesday due to a COVID outbreak within the WFT room.
The Giants defense stepped up in Week 15, holding the Cowboys to just 21 points, but the offense was horrible. QB Mike Glennon tossed three interceptions, and he was pulled in favor of QB Jake Fromm. The UNDER is now 7-1-1 in the past nine games for the G-Men.
The Giants have covered three in a row in this series, and seven of the past nine. The UNDER is 3-0 in the previous three meetings, and 5-1 in the past six in the series, too.
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Bills (7-7) and Patriots (9-5) renew acquaintances. The teams just met on Dec. 6 at Highmark Stadium in western New York, and it was a frigid, windy and icy night, with the Patriots scratching out a 14-10 win in the elements. You'll remember QB Mac Jones threw just three passes in the victory.
The Buffalo offense has averaged 29.0 PPG in the past two games since, including a 31-14 win over the Panthers as the OVER hit for the second straight outing.
The Bills hold a 3-2-1 ATS in the past six meetings, with the UNDER 5-2 in the previous seven. That includes a 38-9 win by the Bills in Foxboro last season on Dec. 28, 2020.
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, 1 p.m. ET)
The Ravens (8-6) face the Bengals (8-6) looking for a little redemption. And Blaitmore is also looking to pull out of a nosedive, as they have dropped three in a row to lose control of the AFC North Division lead.
The Bengals went into Charm City and pounded the Ravens back in Week 7 by a 41-17, and that was with a healthy Jackson under center. Rookie WR Ja'Marr Chase introduced himself to the rivalry with a career-high 201 receiving yards.
A few things to watch here are the status of Jackson, while Bengals RB Joe Mixon (leg) also left Sunday's game in Denver late due to a leg injury.
While Baltimore lost the first meeting this season, the Ravens are 3-1 ATS in the past four meetings.
Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The Washington Football Team (6-7) and Cowboys (10-4) get together on Sunday night, and it's a quick turnaround for WFT after playing Tuesday due to a COVID outbreak on the team.
WFT came up short in the first meeting in Week 14 against the Cowboys, 27-20. Washington was down 27-6, but they fought back to make things interesting. It was actually a bad beat for OVER bettors, as they came up just short.
Dallas is 4-2 ATS in the past six meetings, and 6-3 ATS in the past nine meetings in this series, including 3-1 ATS in the past four at home against Washington. As far as the total, the OVER is 7-3 in the past 10 in this series.
