NFL Week #11 Plays Thread $$$

[FirstnGoal]

I'm coming off of another nice week in which I won my only posted play for the week and hit a parlay for some change as well.


:00hour




2007 Plays record:

Big Plays
1-2

Medium Size Plays
6-5-1

Small Size Plays
17-14

Leans
5-1-1

Teasers
10-8-1


I'll be posting my plays on Friday after I finish breaking down the games.

 

[FirstnGoal]

It's not the greatest card that I've seen this season with a bunch of good teams laying a lot of chalk...but I like this play but just Small for now.

Small Play:

New Orleans Saints +1 over Houston
The Saints are coming off of an embarassing home loss to a "starting to get healthy" lambs team last week in a game that should not have come as a big surprise because the Saints have actually played better on the road over the past two seasons...The Texans will be getting QB Schaub and Wr Andre Johnson back for this one but I don't believe the two will be as much in-sync as they were before their injuries with Johnson not truely at 100% just yet...plus...the Texans have struggled to find a running game all season...on the flip side...the way to slow the Saints offense down is to put heat on Brees...but...the Texans have trouble rushing the QB and their best CB Dunta Robinson is now OUT for the season on I.R...the Saints are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on the road and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Road games VS a team with a losing Home record...the Saints are also 4-1 ATS in theri last 5 games as a Road Doggie of between 0.5 and 3.0...The Texans are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a Home favorite and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite period...and last but not least...this is Reggie Bush's first reg season game played vs the Texans since Houston passed him over in the 2006 Draft for Mario Williams. :yup...the Saints bounce back on the Road!
New Orleans 27 Houston 19

 

[Emersonboozer]

I wouldnt want to bust your chops but it looks like you are on one of the bigger public faves with the Saints this week.

 

[bigfootballfan]

My $$ is definitely on HOS. Many starters are coming back and off a bye week. Houston which's perceived as a worse team is favoured? Always go for the favoured in this case. It also reminds me of last week DET/ARI game. The rule in College ball is the same; if an unranked team is favoured over a ranked team, always take the unranked team. I can tell you 9/10 times is correct.

 

[FirstnGoal]

I wouldnt want to bust your chops but it looks like you are on one of the bigger public faves with the Saints this week.

Yup...well aware of that...but I was also all over the Cowboys last week and if I'm not mistaken they were a pretty big public play as well :yup

Sometimes the public is right and sometime thay aren't... but I for one never let that sway my thinking when laying it down on a game I like.

 

[FirstnGoal]

My $$ is definitely on HOS. Many starters are coming back and off a bye week. Houston which's perceived as a worse team is favoured? Always go for the favoured in this case. It also reminds me of last week DET/ARI game. The rule in College ball is the same; if an unranked team is favoured over a ranked team, always take the unranked team. I can tell you 9/10 times is correct.

The Texans have 2 starters coming back on offense in Qb Schaub and WR Johnson (reportedly still not 100% at this time)...but...they suffered a HUGE loss when their best CB Dunta Robinson went down in their last game and is now OUT for the season.

When I capped this game I saw a HUGE mismatch in the Saints offense and passing game versus a Texans defense that struggles to put heat on the QB and has given up chunks of yardage in the passing game even before Robinson was hurt...plus...I wouldn't be surprised if the "Sharpies" move this game to the Saints side as a favorite before the week is out.

 

[FirstnGoal]

My $$ is definitely on HOS. Many starters are coming back and off a bye week. Houston which's perceived as a worse team is favoured? Always go for the favoured in this case. It also reminds me of last week DET/ARI game. The rule in College ball is the same; if an unranked team is favoured over a ranked team, always take the unranked team. I can tell you 9/10 times is correct.

I almost forgot...the Saints have actually been a pretty good team on the road the past 2 seasons going 8-4 SU over the period.

 

[FirstnGoal]

I almost forgot...the Saints have actually been a pretty good team on the road the past 2 seasons going 8-4 SU over the period.

Make that 9-4 SU and ATS on the road the past 2 seasons.

 

[Emersonboozer]

If you like em take em. But the Saints are no longer the darling of the nfl like they were last season and arent getting the same breaks as they were last yr. Do what your gut tells you and best of luck. Lets see if the saints respond.

 

[bigfootballfan]

Sometimes the public is right and sometime thay aren't... but I for one never let that sway my thinking when laying it down on a game I like.

I know there's been many extensive discussion about the term "public". It still bothers me when people use it. (sorry I'm not finger pointing or mean anything offensive :SIB ) So what's public? Aren't we all public? or we consider ourselves "sharpies"...as the matter of fact, everyone thinks they're sharpies. so...who's public? lol

 

[bigfootballfan]

Make that 9-4 SU and ATS on the road the past 2 seasons.

Bookies make that line for a reason. Think, if Saints is so good as you said, why they aren't the favourite? Bookies seldom give out wrong lines in pro sports. In college sports I've seen a lot. Pro sports, maybe 1 ior 2 n a season. Tell you something, if many people says this line is a gift or whatever in pro sports, fade away. I guarantee you 8/10 times you won the spread. GL with that and hope yours might be the one.

 

[FirstnGoal]

Bookies make that line for a reason. Think, if Saints is so good as you said, why they aren't the favourite? Bookies seldom give out wrong lines in pro sports. In college sports I've seen a lot. Pro sports, maybe 1 ior 2 n a season. Tell you something, if many people says this line is a gift or whatever in pro sports, fade away. I guarantee you 8/10 times you won the spread. GL with that and hope yours might be the one.

The Saints really aren't that good or should I say they aren't as good as last season...the Texans may have opened as -1 favs because of the uncertainty surrounding Reggie Bush's injury status early in the week... plus...the Texans are getting 2 starters back on offense...however...their defense even before the Robinson injury was beaten like a drum as of late giving up 35+ points in 3 of the previous 4 games.

 

[FirstnGoal]

If you like em take em. But the Saints are no longer the darling of the nfl like they were last season and arent getting the same breaks as they were last yr. Do what your gut tells you and best of luck. Lets see if the saints respond.

I totally agree with you that they aren't the same team as last year...but...before last week...they were playing some pretty good ball and it seems that they save their best for the road.

 

[FirstnGoal]

Adding this Small Play:

2 Game 6 point teaser:

New England Patriots -9.5
The Pats ripped the Bills in their earlier meeting 38-7 and have had an extra week to prepare for this game coming off of their bye...the Bills have played great as of late winning 4 straight and have truely overachieved which is a tribute to Coach Jauron who has done a super job with his team...however... none of the Bills wins this season were over a team with a winning record... and... the Bills will be without HB Lynch who single handidly led the Bills to a come from behind win over the Dolphins...The Bills defense will be over-matched in this game and their offense takes a step back without the services of HB Lynch...NE is 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS against the Bills in the last 11 games.
New England 31 Buffalo 13

&

Tennessee Titans +8 over Denver
The Titans are 3-1 SU on the road and beat the Saints 31-14 in NO earlier in the season on their other MNF appearance...the Broncos were overrated going into the season and could be 3-6 instead of 5-4 had it not been for 2 games decided in the final seconds...the Broncos will still be without WR Javon Walker and their offense has struggled mightily at times this season...the Broncos home magic no longer exists as the team is just 2-3 SU at home this season and a putrid 1-12 ATS in their past 13 at home...the Titans will likely be without DT Haynesworth in this one but the game should come down to the wire with the 8 points being a bonus in a close ball game.
Denver 23 Tennessee 20

 

[FirstnGoal]

Adding another Small Play:

St. Louis Rams -3 over Niners
The Niners are just terrible this season as their offense isn't in sync because their offensive line has played poorly and their QB situation is a mess..Trent Dilfer gets the nod this week but he has nobody to throw to as their receiving core is arguably the worst in the league and TE Vernon Davis looks like Tarzan but plays like Jane...Frank Gore's ankle still isn't fully 100%...on the flip side the Rams are finally getting healthy and they beat a Saints team last week that was on a roll before the Rams took them apart...the Rams will be able to put some points on the board on Sunday but I can't honestly say the same for the Niners...the Niners won their earlier battle 17-16 but were outgained 392 -186 and outplayed by the Rams that day but won because of several Rams turnovers...last but not least...the Rams are also catching the Niners coming off of MNF.
St. Louis 24 San Francisco 16

 

[FirstnGoal]

Leans:

Cleveland Browns -3 over Ravens PUSH

Under 42.5 Indianapolis/Kansas City Win

New York Giants -3 over Lions Win

 

[FirstnGoal]

One more Lean:

San Diego/Jacksonville Under 41 PUSH

 

[FirstnGoal]

It's not the greatest card that I've seen this season with a bunch of good teams laying a lot of chalk...but I like this play but just Small for now.

Small Play:

New Orleans Saints +1 over Houston
The Saints are coming off of an embarassing home loss to a "starting to get healthy" lambs team last week in a game that should not have come as a big surprise because the Saints have actually played better on the road over the past two seasons...The Texans will be getting QB Schaub and Wr Andre Johnson back for this one but I don't believe the two will be as much in-sync as they were before their injuries with Johnson not truely at 100% just yet...plus...the Texans have struggled to find a running game all season...on the flip side...the way to slow the Saints offense down is to put heat on Brees...but...the Texans have trouble rushing the QB and their best CB Dunta Robinson is now OUT for the season on I.R...the Saints are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games on the road and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Road games VS a team with a losing Home record...the Saints are also 4-1 ATS in theri last 5 games as a Road Doggie of between 0.5 and 3.0...The Texans are just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a Home favorite and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite period...and last but not least...this is Reggie Bush's first reg season game played vs the Texans since Houston passed him over in the 2006 Draft for Mario Williams. :yup...the Saints bounce back on the Road!
New Orleans 27 Houston 19

When Reggie Bush fumbled on the goal-line I knew what the outcome of this one would be.

 

[FirstnGoal]

Adding another Small Play:

St. Louis Rams -3 over Niners
The Niners are just terrible this season as their offense isn't in sync because their offensive line has played poorly and their QB situation is a mess..Trent Dilfer gets the nod this week but he has nobody to throw to as their receiving core is arguably the worst in the league and TE Vernon Davis looks like Tarzan but plays like Jane...Frank Gore's ankle still isn't fully 100%...on the flip side the Rams are finally getting healthy and they beat a Saints team last week that was on a roll before the Rams took them apart...the Rams will be able to put some points on the board on Sunday but I can't honestly say the same for the Niners...the Niners won their earlier battle 17-16 but were outgained 392 -186 and outplayed by the Rams that day but won because of several Rams turnovers...last but not least...the Rams are also catching the Niners coming off of MNF.
St. Louis 24 San Francisco 16

Winner!

 

[FirstnGoal]

Adding this Small Play:

2 Game 6 point teaser:

New England Patriots -9.5
The Pats ripped the Bills in their earlier meeting 38-7 and have had an extra week to prepare for this game coming off of their bye...the Bills have played great as of late winning 4 straight and have truely overachieved which is a tribute to Coach Jauron who has done a super job with his team...however... none of the Bills wins this season were over a team with a winning record... and... the Bills will be without HB Lynch who single handidly led the Bills to a come from behind win over the Dolphins...The Bills defense will be over-matched in this game and their offense takes a step back without the services of HB Lynch...NE is 10-1 SU and 8-3 ATS against the Bills in the last 11 games.
New England 31 Buffalo 13

&

Tennessee Titans +8 over Denver
The Titans are 3-1 SU on the road and beat the Saints 31-14 in NO earlier in the season on their other MNF appearance...the Broncos were overrated going into the season and could be 3-6 instead of 5-4 had it not been for 2 games decided in the final seconds...the Broncos will still be without WR Javon Walker and their offense has struggled mightily at times this season...the Broncos home magic no longer exists as the team is just 2-3 SU at home this season and a putrid 1-12 ATS in their past 13 at home...the Titans will likely be without DT Haynesworth in this one but the game should come down to the wire with the 8 points being a bonus in a close ball game.
Denver 23 Tennessee 20

I need the Titans to cover the 8 points to go 2-1 on the day for my rated plays.