Patriots - Jets
The Patriots and Jets will square off on Sunday for their second game this season. In an extreme contrast, the Patriots are coming off a last second stunner over the formerly undefeated Saints, while the Jets unglamorously gave the Steelers their first win on the season. The Jets were off a win as a big dog against the Falcons, and the game against Pittsburgh was a perfect spot for a letdown, as there may have also been some look ahead to the Patriots. With the Jets off a bad loss and the Patriots off a great win, this game sets up well for the Jets to take advantage and get the cover, and perhaps even the straight up win.
In their first meeting this season, the Patriots won in Foxboro 13-10. The Patriots scored a touchdown on their first drive of the game, then scored just two field goals in the remainder of the first half, and were held scoreless in the second half. Most impressive, the Jets held them to only nine first downs. That is the only time in Brady?s career that the Patriots have been held to less than ten first downs, which highlights the great job the Jets did against them defensively. In fact, if we review the numbers, the Jets dominated nearly every category in the game. Brady?s completion percentage was just 48.7% (he has been held under 50% only 11 times in his 183 games played, and his career average completion rate is 63.5%). The Jets had better third down efficiency, and held the Patriots to just 22%. They more than doubled them up in total rushing yards, and even beat them in passing yards. They held the Patriots to 0-3 in red zone efficiency, while completing 1 of 2 themselves. The Patriots also were 0-2 in goal to go efficiency. Finally, the Jets dominated the time of possession, getting the ball offensively for eight more minutes than the Patriots.
Given all this, how did they possibly lose that game? Easy - they turned the ball over four times, including three interceptions from Geno Smith. The Jets also allowed four sacks. Teams that sack the opponent four or more times and create three or more turnovers when playing as a home favorite cover the spread 86.9% of the time over the past ten seasons, and yet the Patriots failed to cover and barely won. Sometimes, the opponent beats themselves, and this is exactly what happened to the Jets in that game.
Now, the Jets have a chance to redeem themselves at home. Teams that are seeking same season revenge for a loss of less than a touchdown where they were sacked four or more times are 37-20-3 ATS (64.9%) when playing as a dog over the last twenty seasons. Teams seeking same season revenge for a loss where their opponent had two or more red zone failures and at least one goal to go failure are 65-38-5 ATS (63.1%) over the last ten seasons when playing as a divisional dog. As just a home dog (any division), these teams are 30-15-3 ATS (66.7%). When a team is playing as a dog and seeking revenge for a same season loss of a touchdown or less, when they had three or more turnovers in that loss, they are 63-38-3 ATS (62.4%) over the last twenty seasons. Finally, when playing a team again in the same season where they allowed ten or less first downs, teams are 21-10-2 ATS (67.7%) since the 1990 season. All these trends speak to the fact that the Jets really gave that game away, and they have a good chance to win and cover by limiting their own mistakes and playing good defense.
The Patriots have really struggled in their passing game this season. Yards per pass attempt is a good measure of who is going to win, and usually cover a game. Teams that have more yards per pass attempt in a game are 74.5% straight up, and 69.5% ATS over the last five seasons. The Patriots are third to last this season in yards per pass attempt, only above Jacksonville and Tampa Bay. In their last matchup, the Jets held the Patriots to just 4.6 yards per pass attempt, a whole yard under their season average. On the other side, the Jets are in the top half in the league in passing yards per attempt. Home dogs coming off a loss that average more yards per pass attempt than their opponent are 32-13-2 ATS (71.1%) when their opponent is coming off a win. The Jets outgained the Patriots by almost a yard per pass in their last meeting, and the Jets should be able to win this statistical category on Sunday. If they do, home dogs over the last five seasons cover the spread 76.4% of the time when they have more yards per pass attempt than their opponents.
Whether or not there are opponent hangovers in the NFL is certainly debatable, but recent numbers indicate that teams struggle after playing against the Saints. One could speculate on the reasons of why this may happen, from over game-planning for a strong opponent to changing many defensive schemes to curtail some potent voodoo offense. Or, it could be just a complete fluke, but in a sample of over eighty games in the last five seasons, teams are just 30.9% ATS after playing the Saints, 5-22 ATS (18.5%) after beating the Saints, and 0-9 ATS when beating the Saints by a margin of three or less. Considering the heroic fashion in which the Patriots won, their hangover might be a bit more pronounced.
The Patriots defense has been impressive so far this season, but their injuries are piling up. New England will be without their leading tacker, linebacker Jerod Mayo, who may be out for the year after he tore a pectoral muscle. Danny Amendola has quickly returned to his oft injured status, and they have lost another guard and cornerback Aqib Talib, who did such a great job shutting down Jimmy Graham, may be out as well.
I?ll take a tough defensive team in a home divisional game, in a good position to bounce back and revenge a loss where they probably should have won outright.
Jets +4.5 (-116)
