STARTING BANKROLL: $10,000
CURRENT BANKROLL: $10,986
AHEAD OF CLOSING LINE IN 94 OF 146 BETS (64.3%)
Tennessee @ Philadelphia
Open: Tennessee +9.5
Current: Tennessee +9.5
Net YPP: Tennessee +4
Money line: 6.00 (17% implied probability)
Other markets forced me to open this line much higher than I wanted to at PHI -9.5. In my opinion, the Eagles should not be more than a touchdown favorite. This has been a popular game for recreational bettors so far. Our customers have risked $4 on the Eagles for each $1 on the Titans. I am in no hurry to move this line on to the key number of 10, as once I do, I would expect there to be a lot of bigger bets coming in on Tennessee. I am happy with this spot, and gladly take more money on Philadelphia.
I expect these two teams to really make each other look average this Sunday, as there is no mismatch anywhere on the field between the two sides.
Philadelphia has been exactly average up to this point in the season, allowing teams to gain 100% of their average per offensive play. Offensively, the Eagles have been below average, 21[SUP]st[/SUP] in efficiency to be exact. They have struggled to gain more than 100% of their opponent?s average allowance per play both on the ground and through the air.
Tennessee on the other hand, is an exactly average offense, gaining 100% of their opponents average allowance per play, and a slightly above average defense holding teams to just 99% of their average gain per play.
Don?t think these numbers are not the end all be all. However, efficiency ratings paint a very clear picture of what to expect. These two teams are not going to make one another look much better, or worse than they are. Either side should deliver exactly what is expected and as yards per play points out, it should be a much tighter game than expected.
Bet on Tennessee at 6.00 for $80.00 to win $400.00
Green Bay @ Minnesota
Open: Minnesota +9.5
Current: Minnesota +9.5
Net YPP Line: Minnesota +3
Money line: 4.85 (21% implied probability)
At the moment, the Packers are our most bet side of the week. No team is a bigger draw currently than the red hot Packers, and quite honestly, I could have put this number at Green Bay -14, and still been in a position to cheer for Minnesota to win.
While no one can make a strong case for the Vikings to come out and win this game, there is quite a good reason to believe they will be able to keep this game close on Sunday.
Green Bay gives up a ton of yards. In fact, they are below average both against the run and against the pass. Let?s focus on the rush specifically. Green Bay allows teams to rush for 104% of their average gain per play. Minnesota on offense, has the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] most efficient rush offense in the league, gaining 114% of their opponents average allowance per play.
There are only four more teams that give up more yards per rush attempt than Green Bay does at 4.6 yards per carry. With that in mind, you can multiply the two percentages and expect Minnesota to gain just shy of 5.5 yards per carry.
Green Bay has scored 108 points in the last 8 quarters of football. It is hard to bet against that. However, the weather should aid the Minnesota defense in slowing down Green Bay. Forecasts are calling for freezing temperatures with snow and wind. Not ideal passing conditions by any means. When you add in with the fact that Minnesota is far better at defending vs. the pass than they are vs. the run, (holding teams to 95% of their average gain per pass play) I wouldn't be surprised to see Green Bay go to the ground much more often than normal, especially early on in the game.
This is a ton of points for any team to lay on the road, regardless of how good they are. If Minnesota can just get a little steam early and stop Green Bay from setting the pace, this should play out as an ugly, divisional match-up in harsh conditions.
Bet on Minnesota at 4.85 for $91.90 to win $353.81
Arizona @ Seattle
Open: Seattle -6.5
Current: Seattle -6.5
Net YPP Line: Seattle -9.5
Money line: 1.37 (73% implied probability)
I have been waiting for the right opportunity to really load up against this Cardinals team and this is absolutely the best spot I am going to find.
I will go down the checklist one item at a time and break down how this game checks all my boxes.
#1. Expected wins. Betting a under-performing team vs. an over performing team.
At the moment, the Cardinals are nearly 3 wins above their expectation based on points for and against. No team has outperformed their expectations more through 10 games of the regular season that I remember in recent history. Seattle, nearly a game under.
Check.
#2. Getting in at a good price vs. the market.
Somehow, and I would never imagine I?d be saying this, but our customers have backed the visiting team more than the Seahawks in CenturyLink Field. The biggest home field advantage in the league at 5 points added to the spread has been the stopping point for public money in the past couple of seasons. Our customers have bet $3 on the Cardinals for each $1 on the Seahawks. That is the main reason for this game staying short of the key number 7. Fantastic price at Seattle -7.
Check.
#3. Favorable Yards per Play differential.
Current market price is Seattle -6.5. Net Yards Per Play has Seattle at getting 3.5 points and the Cardinals giving up 1 point, for a total of Seattle -4.5. Adding in home field, the Net Yards Per Play price is Seattle -9.5. That is a full field goal above the current market price.
Check.
#4. Efficiency Ratings
Seattle, 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] most efficient offense vs. Arizona, 32[SUP]nd[/SUP] most efficient defense.
Arizona, 29[SUP]th[/SUP] most efficient offense vs. Seattle, 6[SUP]th[/SUP] most efficient defense.
Check. Check. Check.
#5. Favorable spot.
Two sides to this one.
First, there is nothing to lead me to believe we don?t see the best game Seattle has played all season this Sunday. This is an absolute must win game to keep their playoff hopes alive and well. San Francisco has a lay-up at home with Washington which will surely put them at 7-4, meaning if the Seahawks win at home, they will be tied for 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] sitting two games back of Arizona with five games to play. A loss means there is a four game gap, and they will be in a big need of help.
Second, how can anyone expect big things from Drew Stanton? He has not seen action away from home since Week 5 of the NFL season. That was also the only loss the Cardinals have had all season at Denver. He went 11/26 for 118 yards before being knocked out of the game. His only other game on the road was at New York in Week 2 when he went 14/29 for 167 yards. Neither game saw him throw a touchdown.
This game has the makings of an absolute blowout.
Bet on Seattle at 1.37 for $1998.55 to win $739.46
OTHER BETS
Bet on Cleveland at 2.40 for $101.50 to win $142.10
Bet on New England at 1.32 for $306.60 to win $98.11
Bet on Indianapolis at 1.12 for $694.90 to win $83.38
Bet on Houston at 1.81 for $140.55 to win $113.84
Bet on Tampa Bay at 3.01 for $97.40 to win $195.77
Bet on San Diego at 1.41 for $311.40 to win $127.67
Bet on Miami at 3.60 for $92.20 to win $239.72
Bet on San Francisco at 1.24 for $490.40 to win $117.96
Bet on NY Giants at 2.62 for $155.10 to win $251.26 |
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