series starts Thursday Oct. 11th
series starts Thursday Oct. 11th
Game #1
Francis @ Webb
rockies 51% (+115)+4
under 7.5 54% (-120)-1 --ump N/A
I'm giving the D'Backs a very small edge pitching. Rockies get a larger edge at the dish.
Francis is 7-2 with a 3.54 era in 14 career starts vs the D'Backs. That includes a 1-1 with a 2.84 era in three '07 starts. His last regular season start was at home to these D'Backs and that was the lone game that the Rockies have dropped over the past couple of weeks, as Francis took the L giving up 4 earnies over 6 innings pitched in the 4-2 D'Backs win. He pitched at Chase once this season and threw 5-hit shutout ball at the D'Backs over his 7 innings, picking up the W as the Rockies won 2-0 back on May 23rd. Francis is actually undefeated at Chase Field for his 7 career starts there, going 4-0 with a stellar 3.24 era; very impressive as the D'Backs have been solid at home for years and Chase is a bit of a hitter's park. For his last 4 starts overall his K/BB ratio is 31/8 or 3.87; very good. Rox went 3-1 over those 4 starts as Francis posted an era of 3.04. Outside of surrenduring two homers to the Phils in game #1?their only 2 runs off him?Francis looked dynamite. Rockies pen rated a 71 but that figure would be higher if I'd updated it following these past couple of weeks. Corpas looks real good as a closer, so far in these playoffs.
Webb is 8-7 with a 3.89 era for his career vs the Rockies. Those numbers were much better before this season started, as in 2007 he went 1-3 with a 5.77 era in 6 meetings. Three times he faced them at home this season, pitching 7 innings each time and surrenduring 5 earnies the first two times before allowing 4 in the last back on September 2nd. Of his three starts at Coors, he was roughed up some for the first two but the last, on September 28th, he was the winner in that 4-2 game over Francis. Webb was solid though not dominant throughout September. His first of the playoffs, however, he truly was dominating, allowing 4 hits and strking out 9 over 7 innings while allowing a single run. Rox have seen him plenty this season, and have done well for the most part, but Webb could pose some trouble for them in this one. Webb actually had a lower era, whip and BAA on the road than at home this season but, as I mentioned, Chase is a bit of a hitter's park. D'Backs pen has been very good all season (rated a 76) and made the Cubs look pretty bad in that series. Closer Valverde is solid.
Rockies OPS vs R .798
D'Backs OPS vs L .722 and they scored the fewest runs of any team in MLB off of lefties
Rockies OPS on the road .730
D'Backs OPS at home .778
Rockies OPS the past 7 days .868 in 6 games
D'Backs OPS the past 7 days .684 in 5 games
Rockies were 31-30 on the road to R
D'Backs were 14-9 at home to L
That Rockies series price, currently as cheap as -123, sure looks tempting; still, might be better to wait until after game #1 as Webb is, clearly, the D'Backs best chance to take a game. I dunno?Rockies find a way to win this one and the series price for Colorado will be somewhere between -150 and -180, I would imagine. This opener is more crucial to the D'Backs, I'd say, as the Rockies will have a very big edge for the games played at Coors Field. Webb likely gets a start at Coors in this series, too, and he was 1-1 there this season with a 5.50 era; not a whole lot better there for his career as he's 4-5 with a 4.24 era in 13 trips, keeping the ball in the park fairly well (6 dingers in 80.2 IP) but allowing the Rox to hit .277 off him there. I think that the Rockies have a good shot against the D'Backs for the series as they'll be using two pretty solid lefties?Francis and Morales?and the D'Backs don't swing nearly as well when facing lefties. I should add, however, that the D'Backs OPS vs L was .696 heading into September, so they've managed to raise that almost 30 points over the final month; D'Backs were also 11-9 at home to L entering September, so they went 3-0 at home to L in the final month. Rockies went a solid 8-2 during September on the road to R. Very tough game to call. I think it will take quite an effort by Francis to keep up with Webb, but he looked quite good in his 4-2 decision over Hamels and the Phillies in game #1 of that series. I just think that the Rockies bating order, 1 though 6, will be a little too much for the D'Backs to handle over the course of the series. I think I've got to give that series price a try, despite the option of waiting for a better line if they lose the opener, and despite the fact that they'll get only 3, maybe, games at home. That Rockies team total over 3.5, currently at -110, is very tempting. Probably another important temptation to avoid as I'm expecting a fairly low-scoring game. I think that the Rockies take this opener in a squeaker.
Predicted score: Rockies 4 Diamondbacks 3
Plays pending.
GL
