- - In typical fashion, I blew my chances in the Madjacks ML contest.
Last week I couldn't find a ML dog I liked at any price, and got bitch slapped with a worthless play on Oakland.
This week I loved San Diego as a live dog, but it was a Thursday night and I had not given much thought to the rest of the card for the week, although I had a vague notion I would be playing Washington in the contest as a decent prospect for getting longer odds that unusual. What I never stopped to consider was whether I should make San Diego a play, and after the game was 10-10 I looked for the first time and saw San Diego had been +405 in the contest, which was exactly the path I needed to take at this point in the proceedings . . . Typical . . . I'd be sitting way up the leader board after Monday if I had just been paying attention, but now Washington +260 is too popular to help enough, and will fail to revive any hopes at all when it comes up short . . . No cigar.
On to today . . .
Philadelphia(-6)(-118) over Minnesota (1*)
- - The Philadelphia offense heads indoors for the first time all season. Last week's Snow Bowl was one sort of adventure, this week should be something more of a precision high wire act . . . Minnesota comes in off an excruciating run of a divisional game in Green Bay that lasted a full 15 minute overtime, then a big rally to nip division rival Chicago in overtime, and then a trip to the defending Super Bowl champs in a frantic and deflating game of historic proportions with five lead changing touchdowns being scored in the final 2:05 of the game. Now it's just a visit from Philadelphia, and they go without their franchise player . . . One of the hottest teams in the league can carry my cash indoors this week.
Dallas(-6') over Green Bay (1*)
- - The Dallas defense played hard but was embarrassed last week on national TV in never forcing a punt. The harsh conditions of last week give way to a home field where the Romo led offense has been taking care of business all season . . . The Packers have done nothing inspirational for six long weeks, and nothing intangible favors them in this spot; if Green Bay does rise up and plays an outstanding game that gives them some sort of shot to win in the 4th quarter, I still think it's Dallas that gets the cheese, and I'm not really liking at all the chances of Green Bay keeping it all that close to the finish.
Chicago(-1) over Cleveland (1*)
- - The Chicago offense has weapons across the board: 3 receivers, a tight end, Matt Forte, a vastly improved offensive line, even multiple quarterbacks, and a coach who knows how to deploy his weapons. QB Cutler comes back, and he has just too many toys . . . A not very good Cleveland team has to get off the mat after a team deflating loss to New England following their best effort in weeks . . . Granted, Chicago played out of their minds good and efficient in brutal conditions last week, and they now have to answer that effort, but Cleveland on the turn around is a good opportunity, and I expect Chicago is now trending with enough bounce to keep it going this week. I know if one team wins going away by double digits today, its far, far more likely to be Chicago, and I believe it's also clearly more likely Chicago gets a win of some sort rather than a loss of some sort, so I absolutely see value in Chicago (-1).
Seattle(-7)(-120) over New York Giants (1*)
- - Green Bay definitely had "That Super Bowl Look" in 1996. I don't know that any team has had quite that look this year, but if I had to pick a team, it's been Seattle for me (my impressions have been that Denver was peaking WAY too early, San Francisco would find some way to struggle as a Super Bowl loser, whether it be health or a sophomore QB story or something, and New Orleans would have to prove it to me, and they've proven to be elite but with some cracks) . . . Anyway, after tasting a December loss in a pitched battle in San Francisco, Seattle can carry my cash against Eli and those Giants as Seattle works through whether it is trending to Super Bowl stature.
Washington(+6) over Atlanta (1*)
- - Last week Kansas City was only my third "Top Play" of the entire season in either the NFL or NCAA. However, that play was entirely predicated on being a play "on" a sparkling Kansas City team off three straight losses, and not a play "against" Washington, although I was sort of licking my chops that Washington just happened to be the opponent. But the fact of the matter is Washington has been a mess, and RGIII is the leading culprit. More than one analyst has recently noted that even in textbook West Coast offense situations in which the read is only one thing 10 out of 10 times, RGIII hasn't been seeing it. And then there's that recent story that was denied in which RGIII was butt hurt about his bad plays being critiqued in team meetings . . . Now Cousins gets a start at QB, and I think there's a good chance the QB play gets a big upgrade, and a decent chance the entire team has a little fight on display after at least one week of letting in some fresh air.
Texas(+6) over Indianapolis (1*)
- - Both teams are pretty much established as a "go against" in my general impressions at this juncture in their respective seasons, and although I wouldn't invest too much of my dough in either team any time soon, it does seem like the visitor could be the right side in this one.
- - I think San Fran is hard to like early against Tampa off their "Super Bowl-like" effort last week, I think Arizona has a good chance to keep it going for another week but I don't want to give any points on an eastern road trip, I have a hunch St. Louis falls to New Orleans by single digits, but those are shaping up as no plays. I am still leaning to Kansas City over Oakland, Cincinnati over Pittsburgh, and Detroit over Baltimore, and moving toward Carolina over the Jets, and in the game I'm likely to switch my mind on from the middle of the week, I'm now looking at taking Miami over New England.
GL
