Notre Dame Bowl Trend

[AU2001]

Here is my last post in this thread that you have detroyed. I think it speaks for itself.

The last time Notre Dame won a bowl game, I was just starting to get pubes (I know that's sad for both me and Notre Dame, but the good news is I eventually got more pubes...Notre Dame hasn't stopped losing bowl games) :s4:

Notre Dame bowl record over the past 11 years = 0-7

ND has lost to almost every conference, including a loss to an SEC school, in these 7 games.

The last time ND had a hot new coach and landed in a decent bowl, they got beat 28-6 by NC State.

The last BCS bowl ND played in was the 2001 Fiesta Bowl, and guess what...THEY GOT DRILLED IN THAT ONE TOO!!!!!
41-9 loss to Oregon St.

Based on this info., it looks like the Irish have had a difficult time breaking into double-digits in big-time bowl games, and may have the longest streak I have ever seen of laying eggs in bowl games. :scared :scared :scared :scared

 

[steve2881]

Dereck...

Dereck...

man, you need to take a prozac. We all know that since you are a lawyer you must be a genious, and yes, we are all impressed, but I think you are missing the point. I beleive that trends are very helpful in capping, and that is what this site is really all about. God forbid someone would challenge the fact that this N.D. team MAY be overhyped, as they typically are. I think this is a good team, but the media tends to build this team up for obvious reasons. It is as if they need N.D. to be a national power. I think AU2001 is trying to make the point that overhyped teams are often very easy to bet against, and can also be very profitable.

 

[DerekNJND]

Here is my last post in this thread that you have detroyed. I think it speaks for itself.

The last time Notre Dame won a bowl game, I was just starting to get pubes (I know that's sad for both me and Notre Dame, but the good news is I eventually got more pubes...Notre Dame hasn't stopped losing bowl games) :s4:

Notre Dame bowl record over the past 11 years = 0-7

ND has lost to almost every conference, including a loss to an SEC school, in these 7 games.

The last time ND had a hot new coach and landed in a decent bowl, they got beat 28-6 by NC State.

The last BCS bowl ND played in was the 2001 Fiesta Bowl, and guess what...THEY GOT DRILLED IN THAT ONE TOO!!!!!
41-9 loss to Oregon St.

Based on this info., it looks like the Irish have had a difficult time breaking into double-digits in big-time bowl games, and may have the longest streak I have ever seen of laying eggs in bowl games. :scared :scared :scared :scared

And I will say one more time, that information that obvious is already implicit in the spread. I think the LVSC with its world renowned cappers and shitload of information, is capable of knowing that ND has lost its last 7 bowl games. Its not like you have uncovered GOLD by telling us this information. The spread is already adjusted to reflect that information, by the LVSC.

You claim you started this thread b/c that trend meant ND was due and you were goin to bet them. Then you just posted you ARENT betting them. What does that mean? You are a fraud and started this thread just to spread ANTI-ND propoganda.

Like I said before, from reading your previous posts and our previous debates, OBVIOUSLY done just because of your bitterness about Auburn. Totally childish and ridiculous.

Good luck in the Fruity Pebbles Bowl

 

[DerekNJND]

man, you need to take a prozac. We all know that since you are a lawyer you must be a genious, and yes, we are all impressed, but I think you are missing the point. I beleive that trends are very helpful in capping, and that is what this site is really all about. God forbid someone would challenge the fact that this N.D. team MAY be overhyped, as they typically are. I think this is a good team, but the media tends to build this team up for obvious reasons. It is as if they need N.D. to be a national power. I think AU2001 is trying to make the point that overhyped teams are often very easy to bet against, and can also be very profitable.

I agree Stevie. I think Au2001 is JUST TRYING TO SAY ND IS OVERHYPED. That was the point of this thread. At least you have the B@LLS to come out and say that. He not so cleverly tried to disguise that by calling this "ND BOWL TRENDS". All he really wanted to do was continue his anti-ND propaganda, and he should take it somewhere else. I'm not disupting the fact that ND may be overhyped, I never said that; He made comparisons of this year's ND team to 2002 where we KNOW they were overhyped. We dont know that this year. All we know is they have been in a position to win EVERY GAME THEY'VE PLAYED, up to the final seconds. So if you wanna start the OVERHYPED crap, lets watch the game. If they lose, blast away. But we dont know that yet.

AU2001, if you want to rag on ND, go do it in the "sports teams and their fans" section. Dont claim to be providing information when you really just wanna bash a team.

 

[DerekNJND]

Here is my last post in this thread that you have detroyed.
I was just starting to get pubes (I know that's sad for both me and Notre Dame, but the good news is I eventually got more pubes

ND has lost to almost every conference, including a loss to an SEC school, in these 7 games.

The last time ND had a hot new coach and landed in a decent bowl, they got beat 28-6 by NC State.

The last BCS bowl ND played in was the 2001 Fiesta Bowl, and guess what...THEY GOT DRILLED IN THAT ONE TOO!!!!!
41-9 loss to Oregon St.

My Point Again: Did Brady Quinn and the rest of the 2005 team play in these games? Nope, besides maybe a few freshman at the time

Was Charlie Weis the "new coach" when ND lost to NC STATE? Nope

Has the 2005 team lost a bowl game to every conference? Nope they only lost 2 games by a combined 6 points to 2 conferences this year.

Has the 2005 team had trouble breaking double digits? Does the 2005 team lay "goose eggs"? :mj07:

Your arguments are irrelevant. They're like pulling a knife in a gunfight man. Lay off the budha :weed:


Ok the part about your pu berty? Uncalled for and indicative of your class (or lack thereof)

 

[steve2881]

Think you missed my point...

Think you missed my point...

I think what I am is saying as well as Au is that the overhyping IS the trend. That is when you can make alot of money. When you find the "public team" and bet against them. There are certain teams that get to much respect simply because of their names, and they typically receive wagering lines accordingly. I will give you 3.

Florida St.
Miami
Nortre Dame

These are very good teams to look at betting against. I am not going to go on a rant, but I think that is the point, the overhyping is the trend. I like Weis, but it seems that we have been in this position recently with Washington's current coach. Tending to overreact to success seems to be the norm when the Irish is concerned.

 

[DoMyDermBest]

Derek is spending way too much time from his studies. Question for anyone who has watched this thread sound more like a long lost script from Mary Hartman; What is the difference between a prostitute and a lawyer? A prostitute stops screwing you when you die. I'm sure Fine young Derek will become a corporate lawyer. In that case we'll get a corporate resolution for this interminable mental masturbation.

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

I think Derek and myself have to defend ND on a daily basis and it becomes frustrating for us. For some reason Sun Tzu and AU2001 have penis envy when it comes to ND.

 

[DIRTY Diapers]

I think what I am is saying as well as Au is that the overhyping IS the trend. That is when you can make alot of money. When you find the "public team" and bet against them. There are certain teams that get to much respect simply because of their names, and they typically receive wagering lines accordingly. I will give you 3.

Florida St.
Miami
Nortre Dame

These are very good teams to look at betting against. I am not going to go on a rant, but I think that is the point, the overhyping is the trend. I like Weis, but it seems that we have been in this position recently with Washington's current coach. Tending to overreact to success seems to be the norm when the Irish is concerned.

You can bet against ND in the previous bowls and obviously you would have come away with much success.

But don't sit there and tell me that this current team and Willinghams 2002 is in the same boat. That team wasn't good. ND fans all knew it. They didn't SCORE an OFFENSIVE TD until the third game. They were ranked #1 in turnover ratio that year which contributed to their success. Purdue had five fumbles in ND territory that year which they easily should have won. The same could be said with about four other games played in that year.

ESPN contributed more of the hype that year than anybody. When ND is having a good season they will obviously get more attention. But any ND fan who has watched both seasons know this team is far and away better. It's not even close. Win or Lose on Jan. 2nd this team will be ready to play, like every other game this year. BTW - How is Loosingham doing this year at Washington? I feel sorry for the Husky fans they're in for some agony.

 

[DerekNJND]

I think what I am is saying as well as Au is that the overhyping IS the trend. That is when you can make alot of money. When you find the "public team" and bet against them.

The "public"? Who do you think you are, Sam freakin Rothstein? Greatest handicapper of all time? What do ya got tonight "Ace?" :mj07: :mj07:

I'm not denying that Notre Dame can be overhyped, as you call it. The point is they are NOT this year. They were overhyped in 2002, when they were ranked #4 in the country. When they lost two of the last four, including a spanking by USC, they were NOT overhyped going into the NC STATE game. They stumbled into that game and the score reflected that.

As far as trends, Overhyping is NOT the trend. ND has been an underdog in every bowl game they've played in since I went to school there. How is that overhyped? The line was introduced on offshore online books at 6 or 6.5. How is that overhyped? If you think ND hanging within 6 points of OSU is overhyping them, you have been on vacation this whole college football season man.

Theres between "homers" and people who objectively follow a football team. Like I said, I cashed in on OSU last year in ND's bowl game. The play had NOTHING to do with ND being overhyped. Were they overhyped last year too at 6-5? Get real pal, not a CHANCE. The play was based on who was the better football team on the field. ND was not a bowl calibur team last season, THATS why I made the bet. They played a hard schedule, got pounded in several games, and in my objective opinion could not compete against a faster, more motivated, team that ACTUALLY HAD A COACH (ty was already FIRED!). Play had NOTHING to do with them losing bowl games in the past, and no play this season should either

 

[DerekNJND]

See Master Capper's thread about "Bowl Trends".

It says ND is 0-7 in its last 7 bowl games, AND 1-6 ATS during that span. Period. That is an objective comment, while listing 50 other trends as well. There are no insults or derogatory remarks, just OBJECTIVE CONTENT that is posted to help people make an informed decision. The opposite of how this thread was started, and thats why there were adverse reactions.

If Au2001 simply wanted to "share" information as he claims, he could have done it that way. Obviously his intent was to get a rise out of people, and thats exactly what he received.

 

[DerekNJND]

But any ND fan who has watched both seasons know this team is far and away better. It's not even close. Win or Lose on Jan. 2nd this team will be ready to play, like every other game this year.

Thats my point. You guys dont follow ND as avidly as an ND fan does, so every time you see ND in the top ten, we are automatically "overrated" and "overhyped". Judgments like that are irrational and deserve criticism. Thats why I throw out the stats I throw out. In 2002, there WERE NO STATS to support why the team did so well, besides an opportunistic turnover ratio. This year, there are solid, on the field statistics and performances which have contributed to their success. While they are and will always be media darlings, I think people who follow the team closely are better at identifying when they are actually good and when they are just being "hyped"

 

[steve2881]

Derek.....

Derek.....

If you actually don't think there is such a thing as the public team your nuts, and you must have not been betting very long. I know I don't post my plays because people tail you when you get hot, then bash you when you have a bad weekend. All I can say is my biggest play of the year this year was Kansas as a pick vs Nebraska. I honestly didn't even need to look at their records, and I promise you I didn't know the records at the time. I just knew a public team like neb. should have been favored by at least 14, because of the name, regardless of record. I know that might sound weird, or unscientific, but that is the way I gambled this year. I have no complaints. I will not touch this game because of the opponent. Ohio St. is a very public team.

If I had to cap this game I would say N.D. will lose by 10 pts., actually the more I think about it, I would feel very comfortable with this bet. I actually won a very sizable chunk on Stanford against your guys based on my public team, unscientific method. I know it doesn't make sense, and for that you will ridicule me, but I really do feel an Ohio St. win by 10.

 

[DerekNJND]

If you actually don't think there is such a thing as the public team your nuts, and you must have not been betting very long. I know I don't post my plays because people tail you when you get hot, then bash you when you have a bad weekend. All I can say is my biggest play of the year this year was Kansas as a pick vs Nebraska. I honestly didn't even need to look at their records, and I promise you I didn't know the records at the time. I just knew a public team like neb. should have been favored by at least 14, because of the name, regardless of record. I know that might sound weird, or unscientific, but that is the way I gambled this year. I have no complaints. I will not touch this game because of the opponent. Ohio St. is a very public team.

If I had to cap this game I would say N.D. will lose by 10 pts., actually the more I think about it, I would feel very comfortable with this bet. I actually won a very sizable chunk on Stanford against your guys based on my public team, unscientific method. I know it doesn't make sense, and for that you will ridicule me, but I really do feel an Ohio St. win by 10.

I didnt say there was no such thing as a public team. And I didnt say you cant make money fading the public. But I will say this: there is no money to be made when OSU/ND play by playing the the public fade or against the overhyped team. Why? Because they are both extraordinary public favorites and both have tons of hype. I dont think that strategy is a factor in this game.

Your method is no secret. There is a long lived trend of playing the underdog in every ND game, not necessarily betting against ND. I think it hits at like 75% all time. No BS, you should check that out. If you played it this year, you would have done EXTREMELY well. I think the underdog went 8-3 in ND games this year. Try that one out instead of betting against ND every chance you get.

Another thing, not ridiculing, just speaking my opinion. How you predict ND to lose by 10 when they havent lost by more than 3 all year is beyond me. OSU has done NOTHING more on the road this year than ND has, both beat Michigan at Michigan, thats it. ND has yet to lose a road game this season, and OSU definately feeds off that home crowd. I think you're way off but thats why they play the games

 

[steve2881]

To be honest.....

To be honest.....

Derek, of al the old school power house schools; i.e. nortre dame, penn st., alabama, Notre Dame is my favorite. I like what they stand for, and I like how they accomplished this with higher accademic standard. I also agree with you, O.s.u. is a very public team. I think the reason that I feel O.s.u. will win by ten is because of the line, when it came out. -6. I think with the most watched game of the year, nd vs. usc, this line should be more like a pick. There are certain gasmes this year that I did not touch concerning nd. Two big ones were Tenn. and usc. I realize they covered both, but these are two very public teams, it is hard to get a read on these lines. I kno

 

[steve2881]

To be honest.....

To be honest.....

Derek, of all the old school power house schools; i.e. nortre dame, penn st., alabama, Notre Dame is my favorite. I like what they stand for, and I like how they accomplished this with higher accademic standards. I also agree with you, O.s.u. is a very public team. I think the reason that I feel O.s.u. will win by ten is because of the line, when it came out. -6. I think with the most watched game of the year, nd vs. usc, this line should be more like a pick. There are certain games this year that I did not touch concerning nd. Two big ones were Tenn. and usc. I realize they covered both, but these are two very public teams, it is hard to get a read on these lines because of very public teams facing eachother. I know this "feel" method is not full proof, but it has done very well for me this year.