Ohio State at -6
- Thread starter Sun Tzu
- Start date
wow. not saying i disagree with it, because ohio state is the right side. but figured it was going to be 3.5. you're right, that opening # tells you where they want the money.
im assuming sun is getting the numbers from betcris.
they've got the bcs games up right now.
ohio state 6/56
usc 6.5/72
penn state 9/51
georgia 9/45
opening number looks like it wants west virginia money too
they've got the bcs games up right now.
ohio state 6/56
usc 6.5/72
penn state 9/51
georgia 9/45
opening number looks like it wants west virginia money too
i just saw bet cris lines & saw penn. st.-8....
at quick glance i like penn. st. to handle fsu with the way the fsu offensive line is.....
i'll wait for more lines to come out...
at quick glance i like penn. st. to handle fsu with the way the fsu offensive line is.....
i'll wait for more lines to come out...
sorry...wife said dinner was ready
saw it at BetCris and also at Scoresandodds
I still dont get why USC is -6.5 instead of 7. Cant believe they are trying to get more USC action but that is what it looks like to me.
saw it at BetCris and also at Scoresandodds
I still dont get why USC is -6.5 instead of 7. Cant believe they are trying to get more USC action but that is what it looks like to me.
Sun Tzu said:
it will be 7.5 come game time at square outs barring leinhart coming out with his square dance partner and fleeing to the national ballroom dance finals on january 4th.
my guess is they don't want the middlers. plenty of sharp usc m.l. money along with texas + the points and that will be the early money coming in. they don't want them the option of the 7 without buying the point. just my guess.
you will find a 7 or better if you want it, just be patient.
after ucla gave the trojans a big scare yesterday, its a wonder texas isn't favored.
gl
Little known fact:
Jim Thorpe, gretaest athlete of all-time bar none (yes, believe it or not ESPN, even better than Reggie Bush) was a national ballroom dancing champion.
Jim Thorpe, gretaest athlete of all-time bar none (yes, believe it or not ESPN, even better than Reggie Bush) was a national ballroom dancing champion.
Sun Tzu said:
:mj07: Good tie in. In an unrelated note I watched Jim Thorpe All American for the first time and enjoyed it. Solid film.
To keep on topic, I expected this line to be closer to a field goal. Will be interested in line movement over the next few weeks.
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Sun Tzu said:
Just because bettors would SMOTHER OSU at -3 or -4, doesnt mean the line is "begging" for ND money. OSU backers are gonna hang in there because its still less than a TD. BEGGING would be 8 or 9 my friend.
Im a little surprised at the 6, I had figured it around 3 or 4, but this is a 3 point game either way IMO
sun, i have no opinion on this game at the time but do you think the speed of the osu lb's will be tough to overcome for the irish offense. I can't see osu keeping up in a shootout so they're gonna need to establish their run and hopefully get a big play or two from ginn. i think samardjia needs to have a big game and the o-line really needs to establish themselves or that defense will be in the back field all game. all in all i think its gonna be a good game. i'd like to hear your thoughts though if you have a couple free mins and don't mind. thanks!
You guys are killing me here. The line was NOT originally released at -6 from LVSC:
LVSC
12/04 17:39 ET - Ohio State -3.0 (53.0o/u)
Note the time: 17:39 EST
Now lets check when Pinnacle released their line:
Pinnacle
12/04 20:57 ET - Ohio State -5.5 -110
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My thoughts:
Vegas had to have released this line knowing they were going to get Ohio State money at -3 (likely followed by Notre Dame money after the early money is in). Keep this in mind when you think the books are now trying to get Notre Dame money based on the first line because it wasn't what your online books are first releasing!
People around here need to realize that the original line is released by LVSC. . . its not released by Pinnacle, BetCris, Sportsbook or any of the online books. Everyone else gets their line from LVSC based on the early action from the LVSC line.
If you want the very first line that Vegas releases, you need to find the LVSC line.
LVSC
12/04 17:39 ET - Ohio State -3.0 (53.0o/u)
Note the time: 17:39 EST
Now lets check when Pinnacle released their line:
Pinnacle
12/04 20:57 ET - Ohio State -5.5 -110
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My thoughts:
Vegas had to have released this line knowing they were going to get Ohio State money at -3 (likely followed by Notre Dame money after the early money is in). Keep this in mind when you think the books are now trying to get Notre Dame money based on the first line because it wasn't what your online books are first releasing!
People around here need to realize that the original line is released by LVSC. . . its not released by Pinnacle, BetCris, Sportsbook or any of the online books. Everyone else gets their line from LVSC based on the early action from the LVSC line.
If you want the very first line that Vegas releases, you need to find the LVSC line.
I should clarify:
Yes, the online books like Pinnacle, Sportsbook, etc released Ohio State at or very close to -6. But This wasn't the very first line released on this game. The very first was -3 from LVSC (as they are always the very first to release a line and everyone else follows).
Yes, the online books like Pinnacle, Sportsbook, etc released Ohio State at or very close to -6. But This wasn't the very first line released on this game. The very first was -3 from LVSC (as they are always the very first to release a line and everyone else follows).
pinnacle's openers carry a lot of clout imo, i believe their opener was 5.5. i dont pay any attention to a shop like sportsbook. but the pinnacle opener is always worth noting, though i do know where youre coming from with the lvsc. that said, notre dame has such a strong national backing that any move to 6 is very telling.
Bucky, here's the times when the lines were released and the number. Stardust comes after LVSC if you check the times:
LVSC
12/04 17:39 ET - Ohio State -3.0 (53.0o/u)
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Stardust
12/04 20:28 ET - Ohio State -4.5
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Sportsbook.com
12/04 20:46 ET - Ohio State -6.5
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Pinnacle
12/04 20:57 ET - Ohio State -5.5 -110
12/04 21:05 ET - Ohio State -5.5 -110
12/04 23:56 ET - Ohio State -5.5
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SportBet.com
12/04 20:46 ET - Ohio State -6.5
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LVSC
12/04 17:39 ET - Ohio State -3.0 (53.0o/u)
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Stardust
12/04 20:28 ET - Ohio State -4.5
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Sportsbook.com
12/04 20:46 ET - Ohio State -6.5
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Pinnacle
12/04 20:57 ET - Ohio State -5.5 -110
12/04 21:05 ET - Ohio State -5.5 -110
12/04 23:56 ET - Ohio State -5.5
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SportBet.com
12/04 20:46 ET - Ohio State -6.5
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Gman,
I think Pinnacle lines are very telling only when they have a number that is different from the majority of the other books at a certain time. For instance, if Pinnacle keeps their line at -5.5 but the rest of the books raise their lines to 6.5 and maybe 7 then its obvious that Pinnacle is welcoming action on the favorite. This means they have intentionally left their line off in order to welcome a certain kind of action.
Most books don't have the guts. . . Pinnacle will when the time is right. However, opening lines with Pinnacle aren't very telling IMO. . . they are line takers like everyone else. Its how they end up moving their line that is significant IMO.
I think Pinnacle lines are very telling only when they have a number that is different from the majority of the other books at a certain time. For instance, if Pinnacle keeps their line at -5.5 but the rest of the books raise their lines to 6.5 and maybe 7 then its obvious that Pinnacle is welcoming action on the favorite. This means they have intentionally left their line off in order to welcome a certain kind of action.
Most books don't have the guts. . . Pinnacle will when the time is right. However, opening lines with Pinnacle aren't very telling IMO. . . they are line takers like everyone else. Its how they end up moving their line that is significant IMO.
Nickelback said:
Some people think that whenever their ONLINE number is out of whack, the books must be "begging" for money on one side. I didnt know that the original line was released at -3, but I was correct in saying the books did not set the line at -6 to "BEG FOR ND MONEY". If that line was released at -6, no way it would move in ND's favor.
TWO questions Nickelback, if you're still reading this thread later:
First, where can you get LSVC lines online? Do you have a link man?
Second,
Do you think this explains why favorites "seem" to be hitting in record numbers this season? If Vegas releases a line, and it sees early action and is then ADJUSTED before being posted online, wouldnt the early money keep the lines honest? It seems to be working just the opposite. A true number for the ND/OSU game would be around 3. Online bettors are getting the watered down 6 or 6.5.
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