one freakin' play friday HOOP$

[tig3rs]

:mj06:Drake Bulldogs -2.5 $9 :bigun:

:firing: drake's been impressive this year, so far only losing to St. Mary's by 6 pts. they've got a nice, experienced lineup featuring 3 SRs, their gds producing 40+ points a game, with the sr emmenecker getting 5 assists a game.

idk how billy blastoff calculates his 'q' rating but i bet iowa's is RED! and that ain't good! their power rating has dropped steadily through their first 11 games while Drake's has only risen steadily up to 74 from 69 to start the year, and that's including, i think, 3 games versus garbage competition with p/r's in the 30s.

drake's scoring 80ppg, iowa 58! :00hour iowa was put in it's place by a not terribly good wake forest team AT HOME by 9. drake beat a solid wisconsin-milwaukee team and duquesne and... drumroll... badadadadadadaadadada IOWA STATE! yes, the powerhouse :mj07: drake manhandled them at home by 35, iowa traveled to play the cyclones and lost by 9, 47-56.

bulldogs on the road givin' a tre.

ncaabb07-08...134-89-7(60.09%)

 

[tig3rs]

this may be another MJ favorite! airportis making it his biggest play of the year, raymond all over it... the numbers just say that vegas was way off with this one. IT OPENED AT A PICK! WHAT THE HELL IS THAT?! caesar's put it up at -2.0 and it went to -2.5 and then wynn put it up at -2.5... neither's moved since then but it's early in the vegas. i think this line gets to 5 by tipoff... one game on a friday night? come on. GOOD LUCK, EVERYONE! go dogs!

 

[tig3rs]

just some support info...

IOWA are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

12/16/06 home DRAKE 75 - away IOWA 59 line DRAKE -2 U 147 home fg26/49 away fg20/51 reb40-20

Matchup Edge
DRAKE Edge in: IOWA
x Points/Game
x Field Goal %
x Free Throw %
Defense x
x Rebounding
x Turnovers
x Bench


?Drake is outrebounding opponents, 39.3 to 30

?Drake is averaging 11.4 steals, while forcing opponents into an average of 21.0 turnovers

?Drake is outscoring opponents, 82.7 to 55.3

?Drake is averaging 10.9 three-point baskets per game

?Drake is limiting opponents to 38.3 percent shooting from the floor

?Six players are shooting better than 50 percent from the floor, led by junior reserve orward Brent Heemskerk who is shooting 73.2 percent (30-41) in his last seven games

 

[inzone]

This game seems like a trap to me, the only game on the board, and some factors you can't predict on the Iowa side. If you need action that's fine, but I would rather wait for tomorrow to bet on games. Iowa is getting one of their leaders and better players back for his second game, and they are at home(home court in the big 10 is huge). The numbers do suggest that Drake should win and it is hard not to bet them. Normally I would bet on Iowa in this situation, but they commit to many turnovers for me to bet them, and Drake causes alot of turnovers, so it seems like this is a bad matchup for Iowa. If Iowa keeps the score low, and doesn't commit as many TOs as they have been averaging, they can win this game. Good luck though.

 

[Mizuno MP37]

All of my numbers have Drake winning alot more than 3. Very confused about this line.

 

[hawkeye]

Don't like a game when "everyone" is on the same team-especially people you mentioned who do not have a stellar record--GL hope you win. Might look at the toal when it comes out.

 

[big papi]

Iowa somehow won at Northern Iowa and killed a huge parlay I had.

 

[tig3rs]

wow, there's not a "quote the last 4 posts" button so i'll just say... if you don't like the pick, keep it to yourself and play the other side.

mizuno, i have them winning by almost double-digits, man. :firing

hawkeye, who did i mention that don't have stellar records?

do i say stuff/do stuff that just makes people want to come in my threads and post "this is a trap" "looks dangerous" "these guys screwed me" "you got lucky"... i post one play for the day, inzone, you come in and support my pick with one of the stats i have posted, the turnovers and steals... oops left off the huge # for iowa. i don't get it. if you like the play, say good luck, if you don't like it, post your own play on the other side in your own thread. if you're looking for me to justify my play, read my post all the way, not just the first line with the pick. RAYMOND's threads get full of "GL" and ":mj06:" and i get "uh, oh. looks like a trap." again... same with the vandy game. i'm sure some people were saying i'm retarded for playin davidson last night, then the second half got played and everyone realized they just played some slack D in the first half and should've covered. this is a long term racket we're in here. this is one play (so what if there's only one game on the board, i have the line off by enough to play it.) i make plays on their merit, not to get action. if i need action i go play poker or bet on some hockey. i don't post plays that rank in my top 5 strongest of the year for kicks. can i get some positive vibes in here or is everyone just trying to jinx me? (if you are, it ain't gonna work, i work harder and am more committed than just going in and throwing in "looks like a trap game") go bulldogs! (and if they lose, oh well, more info for the next game--on BOTH teams!

for anyone with positive stuff to say (my pick's already posted, it's not going to change) i hope you say it. i love CONSTRUCTIVE, positive, informative conversation.

i've already started on tomorrow's games and will have some threads open later today on them to start some discussion. they won't be plays yet, just leans and thoughts, those might be a place where a "trap game" comment makes sense, but again, i don't believe in that kinda crap. each team is it's own and each game is it's own.

 

[LetsMakeMoney]

IT'S A TRAP FOR IOWA BETTORS :mj07:

DRAKE :00hour

GL T :toast:

 

[tig3rs]

:mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07:

:mj06:

 

[TONYDAHORSE]

Tig3rs,

Don't call me a thread crasher but I'm in on Drake as well!!! If you don't mind I'm gonna post here instead of making a new thread. Iowa lost to Iowa State a week or so ago 56-47. Right before that game, couple of days I think, Drake Played that Iowa State team that beat Iowa. The Score you ask? 79-44. Almost doubled em up!!! Tonights line -2.5? -2 in some books? Big deal so they get their 15 ppg scorer back, Hes probably rusty being out, but even if hes sharp, add 15 and Drake still cruises. That 7 unit play we won on Vandy? Can you say time to double it? 7 UNITS on Drake -2. Check it out now......:spotting:

If I were that 124SPOT fella, I would bet all my lost units on this one. GL Ride it home...

 

[nole47]

most people that dont know much see a big ten school vs some place called drake and think they have a mistake in iowa. iowa sucks, drake good. dont overthink it. unless someone is hurt from drake or someone that hasnt played yet for iowa is involved it should be a nice 1 and done betting evening!

 

[tig3rs]

Tig3rs,

Don't call me a thread crasher but I'm in on Drake as well!!! If you don't mind I'm gonna post here instead of making a new thread. Iowa lost to Iowa State a week or so ago 56-47. Right before that game, couple of days I think, Drake Played that Iowa State team that beat Iowa. The Score you ask? 79-44. Almost doubled em up!!! Tonights line -2.5? -2 in some books? Big deal so they get their 15 ppg scorer back, Hes probably rusty being out, but even if hes sharp, add 15 and Drake still cruises. That 7 unit play we won on Vandy? Can you say time to double it? 7 UNITS on Drake -2. Check it out now......:spotting:

If I were that 124SPOT fella, I would bet all my lost units on this one. GL Ride it home...

TOOOOOONNNNNYYYYY! MY MAN! GO DRAKE! :mj06: :toast: :142smilie

124 i saw somewhere he is on drake w/ us. thanks for the ''thread crash" always appreciate the good comments. :00hour

 

[inzone]

maybe you read my post the wrong way, I was just letting you know what i thought of the game. you said you like constructive conversation, well that is what i was giving. I said the numbers say Drake should win the game, but the line is weird, and Iowa commits too many TOs so I wouldn't bet on Iowa. I also said good luck at the end of my post. These types of situations come up all year long, I'm just saying to be careful.

GL with your play

 

[hawkeye]

Tig-you asked so here goes AirPortis for one he lists his YTD at 30-25=54% thats stellar? Don't think Raymond posts his record so how do you know he has a stellar record? Again GL hope you win

 

[tig3rs]

you didn't explain why you thought the line was weird. what do you think it should be? you contradicted your own statement with your argument. i have a bunch of stats in my post and justify my pick pretty well. if you follow my plays i'm a pretty aggressive player and i win. everyone loses some plays by a bucket or two, that's the game. this is a game worth a few :firing :firing :firing so i'm just saying to fire away. GL in the future, i'm guessing you're not on either side tonight?

i apologize if i came off harsh but i hate the "i'm on the other side" post unless it's from one of the guys that I TAIL sometimes (once in a while i'll wait to post a play until Box posts that he's on it, too) and compare notes with... those being very few and they know who they are.

and i just really despise the "trap game" theory... more often than not that is all talk before the game and the PLAYERS, the ones that matter, make the plays that they're supposed to make and the ones that played the other side after diagnosing a trap end up wishing they hadn't overthought themselves. i'm not into being wishy-washy and overanalyzing. you can believe, if i make a play, i believe in it and haven't just thrown it up there. peace out!

 

[tig3rs]

most people that dont know much see a big ten school vs some place called drake and think they have a mistake in iowa. iowa sucks, drake good. dont overthink it. unless someone is hurt from drake or someone that hasnt played yet for iowa is involved it should be a nice 1 and done betting evening!

i love watching people overthing stuff, it's hilarious! they tend to overthing themselves right into their bookie's pocket. if this game was at drake, drake would be an 8 or 9-pt favorite. vegas just tried to adjust to freeman coming back and it being in iowa so all they knew to do was say "one game on the board, we'll let you guys set it, here: PK" and caesar's said, "i don't think so, i know where the money's going on that!" and set it at -2.0. it's up to -2.5 now and at one place it's up to -3.0. there's probably not that much action on the game, though... it's on BTN, whatever the hell that is. safe to say it'll be on the screen at the MGM!

 

[tig3rs]

Tig-you asked so here goes AirPortis for one he lists his YTD at 30-25=54% thats stellar? Don't think Raymond posts his record so how do you know he has a stellar record? Again GL hope you win

airportis isn't just a guy playing games, yeah he's not doing as well as he did last year right now, but he isn't a gunslinger. and raymond... wow, what a question! i don't think anyone's every questioned his record, that's how i know it's stellar, last year was my first year on here and i didn't post my plays, i used it as a learning opportunity to get better and decided to start posting this year. raymond and Box are the best there are... they don't have to post their records, bro. i thought everyone knew RAYMOND was psychic! :mj07:

(isn't 54% a winning record?) who on here would you say does have a stellar record?

 

[TONYDAHORSE]

I wonder what the Hawkeye record is? He lost his play on Davidson yesterday which was posted before the game started. He tells us this morning however "Played David 2nd half -16' so I won that and broke even. See ya Sat."

If you are going to criticize peoples records, you call your own into question. Perhaps if it had been posted before the outcome, it would have been believable. In any event, the consensus seems to be Drake tonight. Good Luck on all your plays, and try not to be so critical of people who contribute.

 

[hawkeye]

You need to win around 57%+ to have a winning record including juice. Many people don't post records so its hard to tell